Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
349 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

The afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front and surface high
pressure slowly pushing southward into the Upper Midwest, with
weaker surface high pressure placed in the Eastern US. The
convection has slowly started increasing this afternoon amid an
unstable and moist environment. The best POPs so far this
afternoon have generally been around Lake Cumberland and across
the Bluegrass. These will be primarily mesoscale dominated
processes through the afternoon and evening and therefore kept
POPs in the slight to chance range through the period.

The aforementioned cold front will slowly progress southward
toward the region late tonight into Friday. This along with slight
height falls will be the focus for convection for Friday and did
generally keep the better POPs along and south of I-64. This is
the area that stands to see the best potential for instability to
build ahead of the lifting associated with the boundary. This
boundary will slide southward and bring much drier airmass to
round out the period, with PWATs dropping below 1 inch through the
afternoon and evening hours Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

High pressure will build south for the weekend allowing for dry
and cooler conditions to be seen. The upper level ridge may break
down a bit by Sunday afternoon allowing for a few showers or
storms to develop in the Cumberland plateau into central Kentucky.
The 12z GFS is looking much more active next week, at least with
regards to afternoon convection. Thus, at least low end pops will
be introduced into each period from Sunday through Thursday. A
frontal boundary may drop in and stall over the region by mid
week, allowing for better chances of organized convection. While
temperatures will rebound back into the mid to upper 80s by
Sunday, they should generally remain around that level through
next week. This will keep the heat from becoming an issue again
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

Fog will bring sub-VFR conditions early this morning in many
valleys and where significant rain occurred late Wednesday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will also bring sub-VFR
conditions to some locations this afternoon and tonight. Fog could
also bring restrictions in valleys again late tonight. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are forecast. Winds will be light (except near
thunderstorms).

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
351 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-062300-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
351 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible though this evening. Some of the
stronger storms could produce gusty winds and torrential rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday into early Friday
evening and again from Saturday through Wednesday during the
afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

DJ/KAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     PAINTSVILLE             37.82N 82.81W
07/04/2018  E85.00 MPH       JOHNSON            KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            DOWNTOWN PAINTSVILLE. WINDS DOWNED SEVERAL TREES, ONE ON
            A RESIDENTIAL BUILDING. HALF OF ROOF OF OFFICE BUILDING
            TORN OFF. CHURCH STEEPLE ALSO BLOWN OFF ROOF.

&&

CGAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
500 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 E PAINTSVILLE         37.82N 82.79W
07/04/2018  E85 MPH          JOHNSON            KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EAST PAINTSVILLE. WINDS DOWNED SEVERAL TREES, ONE ON A
            RESIDENTIAL BUILDING.

&&

CGAL