Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Jackson, KY

950 
WWUS53 KJKL 070037
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
837 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYC175-070045-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-180907T0045Z/
Morgan KY-
837 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY...

At 837 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Greear, or near
West Liberty, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
West Liberty, Henry, Woodsbend, Malone, Greear, Gordon Ford, Mize,
Licking River, Rexville, Stacy Fork, Index and Pekin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 8344 3792 8340 3798 8334 3794 8325
      3788 8320 3782 8326 3779 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 317DEG 0KT 3788 8332 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HAL

768 
WWUS53 KJKL 070046
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
846 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYC175-070055-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-180907T0045Z/
Morgan KY-
846 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3785 8344 3792 8340 3798 8334 3794 8325
      3788 8320 3782 8326 3779 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 317DEG 0KT 3788 8332 

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

The remnants of the tropical system reside over Arkansas this
afternoon. Per water vapor imagery. An area of deformation
extends along the spine of the Appalachians. This has led to very
little shear and very slow shower and storm movement today. The
lack of shear has really limited stronger activity today and thus,
we haven't had a big issue with heavy rain today. Will maintain a
small chance of shower and a few storms into the evening, but
once we lose instability, we should see everything die down much
like the past several evenings. This will lead to some more river
valley fog tonight. Could see locally dense fog down in the
southwest areas where the rain has fallen today.

By tomorrow, a cold front will stall just north of the Ohio river.
This should focus the best shower and storm chances to our north.
However, enough moisture and instability remains that we should
see another round of isolated shower and storm activity. This
activity should die off once more as we lose instability tomorrow
evening with another night of valley fog for Friday night. As it
stands right now, showers and storms should erode enough in time
for Friday night festivities.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

No significant changes to the extended. Models continue to
exhibit good agreement in solutions with respect to the overall
pattern and sequence of events. Remnants of Gordan and the
potential for heavy rain continue to be the focus of the forecast.
In general models have trended slightly slower with solutions and
sequence of events through the extended. Gordon will phase with
an approaching shortwave trough moving eastward from the Plains
Friday night through Saturday. Gordon should complete the process
of transitioning into a subtropical system by Saturday night and
then make a more aggressive move northeast through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region by the start of the new week. Additional
shortwave energy moving in from the west will tend to reinforce
some of the troughiness across the Ohio and Tenn Valley and may
slow progress of a surface frontal boundary through eastern
Kentucky until early to mid-week, or the Tue-Wed time frame.

The ECMWF, Canadian, GFS, and Parallel GFS (FV3) are showing
signs of narrowing on solutions with respect to Florence, which
now bring the system towards the Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday.
Three of the four solutions bring Florence at least briefly on
shore somewhere between North Carolina and Long Island by the end
of the period or just beyond the extended window. Only the FV3
keeps Florence off shore (just).

Sensible weather features an unsettled weather pattern with the
potential of heavy rain across at least a portion of our forecast
area. Areas most likely at threat will be roughly along and north
of a line from Mount Vernon to Sandy Hook, where between 2 and
3.5 inches of rainfall will be possible. PWATs will climb to
between 1.7 and 2 inches with a surface frontal zone across the
region providing a focus for convection. This could set the stage
for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms for our more
northwestern zones. With respect to timing, Saturday night through
Monday appears to be the main window of concern, where the bulk
of rainfall could take place. Some uncertainty still exists in the
exact track, timing, and evolution of this system through the
region. In addition, with the main event still 5th period or
further out, decided to reissue and fine tune the ESF for now.
However, would not be surprised if a watch were issued within the
next forecast cycle or two. Again, at this time areas most likely
to be affected are our northeastern zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

Expect some widely isolated showers and storms this afternoon,
with it all dying off by sunset. Fog development is expected again
later tonight. This will be hindered by any cloud cover across
the area. Winds are expected to remain light and variable across
the area outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
253 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-072200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
253 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A stray thunderstorm may be possible through early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Wednesday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms on
Friday through the weekend could bring locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KAS/RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
602 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ087-062215-
Bell-
602 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL BELL COUNTY...

At 602 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Middlesboro.
The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Middlesboro, Noetown, Binghamtown and Cumberland Gap.

LAT...LON 3666 8381 3666 8367 3661 8366 3658 8369
      3658 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 060DEG 0KT 3660 8374

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
619 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ085-062245-
Whitley-
619 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WHITLEY COUNTY...

At 618 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Mountain Ash,
or near Williamsburg, moving northwest at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bon, Ayers, Emlyn, Packard, Zion Hill, Red Ash, Lot, Pleasant View,
Saxton, Polly Camp, Mountain Ash, Jellico and Indian Mountain State
Park.

LAT...LON 3659 8422 3661 8424 3673 8421 3667 8404
      3659 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 113DEG 7KT 3664 8414

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
627 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ044-051-062245-
Fleming-Bath-
627 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL BATH AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FLEMING COUNTIES...

At 627 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sherburne, or 8
miles southwest of Flemingsburg. The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pecks Ridge, Wyoming, Hillsboro, Sherburne, Pebble, Oakley and
Odessa.

LAT...LON 3837 8381 3829 8365 3819 8369 3828 8387
      3832 8384 3832 8385 3834 8384 3834 8386
      3836 8386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 354DEG 4KT 3832 8382

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
658 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ050-058-059-062315-
Montgomery-Estill-Powell-
658 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT POWELL...SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN ESTILL COUNTIES...

At 656 PM EDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located over
the region. The storms were nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch diameter hail are possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stanton, Jeffersonville, Camargo, Clay City, Pilot, Levee, Bowen,
Kimbrell, Slade, Bean, Waltersville, Virden, Vaughns Mill, Hardwick,
Rosslyn, Knowlton, Haystack, Rogers Chapel, Westbend and Fitchburg.

LAT...LON 3782 8363 3772 8371 3771 8376 3774 8399
      3784 8402 3784 8400 3787 8403 3787 8402
      3790 8399 3792 8399 3793 8397 3797 8399
      3800 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 246DEG 0KT 3783 8384

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
711 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ060-062345-
Menifee-
711 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MENIFEE COUNTY...

At 710 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Tabor, or near
Frenchburg. The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frenchburg, Wellington, Campsites in the Indian Creek area of the
Daniel Boone National Forrest, Means, Stoll, Cornwell, Rothwell,
Cedar Groves, Denniston, Dan, Fagan, Tabor, Ratlitt, Sudith,
Scranton, Artville, Mariba, Pomeroyton, Big Woods and Korea.

LAT...LON 3801 8344 3794 8344 3783 8353 3782 8359
      3783 8362 3782 8363 3783 8364 3792 8377
      3799 8377 3801 8374 3800 8372 3803 8366
      3802 8363 3801 8361 3801 8358 3803 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 006DEG 0KT 3793 8367

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
724 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ084-085-062345-
Whitley-McCreary-
724 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND WEST
CENTRAL WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 723 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Beulah Heights,
or near Whitley City, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations which may be impacted include...
Beulah Heights, Bounty, Honeybee, Cumberland Falls S.P. and Duckrun.

LAT...LON 3673 8426 3667 8435 3671 8440 3677 8452
      3688 8435 3679 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 143DEG 16KT 3677 8437

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