Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Jackson, KY

193 
WGUS73 KJKL 070737
FFSJKL

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
337 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2018

KYC195-070745-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-180907T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pike KY-
337 AM EDT FRI SEP 7 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 345 AM EDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed any
remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3728 8233 3727 8235 3724 8244 3725 8255
      3741 8246 3737 8228

$$

SHALLENBERGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1016 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

Convection is showing an overall decline, but is slower to fade
than was expected.  The HRRR suggests that the thunderstorms
regenerating in southeast KY presently will also fade away over
the next few hours. In the mean time, have extended the mention
of rain in the forecast for a while longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

The remnants of the tropical system reside over Arkansas this
afternoon. Per water vapor imagery. An area of deformation
extends along the spine of the Appalachians. This has led to very
little shear and very slow shower and storm movement today. The
lack of shear has really limited stronger activity today and thus,
we haven't had a big issue with heavy rain today. Will maintain a
small chance of shower and a few storms into the evening, but
once we lose instability, we should see everything die down much
like the past several evenings. This will lead to some more river
valley fog tonight. Could see locally dense fog down in the
southwest areas where the rain has fallen today.

By tomorrow, a cold front will stall just north of the Ohio river.
This should focus the best shower and storm chances to our north.
However, enough moisture and instability remains that we should
see another round of isolated shower and storm activity. This
activity should die off once more as we lose instability tomorrow
evening with another night of valley fog for Friday night. As it
stands right now, showers and storms should erode enough in time
for Friday night festivities.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 425 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

No significant changes to the extended. Models continue to
exhibit good agreement in solutions with respect to the overall
pattern and sequence of events. Remnants of Gordan and the
potential for heavy rain continue to be the focus of the forecast.
In general models have trended slightly slower with solutions and
sequence of events through the extended. Gordon will phase with
an approaching shortwave trough moving eastward from the Plains
Friday night through Saturday. Gordon should complete the process
of transitioning into a subtropical system by Saturday night and
then make a more aggressive move northeast through the Midwest and
Great Lakes Region by the start of the new week. Additional
shortwave energy moving in from the west will tend to reinforce
some of the troughiness across the Ohio and Tenn Valley and may
slow progress of a surface frontal boundary through eastern
Kentucky until early to mid-week, or the Tue-Wed time frame.

The ECMWF, Canadian, GFS, and Parallel GFS (FV3) are showing
signs of narrowing on solutions with respect to Florence, which
now bring the system towards the Mid-Atlantic region by Thursday.
Three of the four solutions bring Florence at least briefly on
shore somewhere between North Carolina and Long Island by the end
of the period or just beyond the extended window. Only the FV3
keeps Florence off shore (just).

Sensible weather features an unsettled weather pattern with the
potential of heavy rain across at least a portion of our forecast
area. Areas most likely at threat will be roughly along and north
of a line from Mount Vernon to Sandy Hook, where between 2 and
3.5 inches of rainfall will be possible. PWATs will climb to
between 1.7 and 2 inches with a surface frontal zone across the
region providing a focus for convection. This could set the stage
for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms for our more
northwestern zones. With respect to timing, Saturday night through
Monday appears to be the main window of concern, where the bulk
of rainfall could take place. Some uncertainty still exists in the
exact track, timing, and evolution of this system through the
region. In addition, with the main event still 5th period or
further out, decided to reissue and fine tune the ESF for now.
However, would not be surprised if a watch were issued within the
next forecast cycle or two. Again, at this time areas most likely
to be affected are our northeastern zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 916 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing over the region
this evening, but the overall trend will be for a decrease in
activity, with most of it expected to fade away by around 05Z.
Generally quiet weather is then expected until more showers and
thunderstorms develop during the day on Friday. Any of the
thunderstorms could bring IFR or worse conditions. At this time,
KSYM is the only TAF site where there is enough confidence to
make a mention of VCTS in the forecast on Friday.

In addition to the precip, fog is again expected in valleys
tonight into Friday morning. It may spread beyond valleys,
especially where significant rain occurred on Thursday evening. In
the TAFs, have allowed visibility restrictions to some extent at
all TAF sites, but confidence is low.

Outside of fog and precip, mainly VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1019 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-071100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1019 PM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible in some locations late this evening,
but should taper off for the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Wednesday,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms on
Friday through the weekend could bring locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

RAY/HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
658 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ050-058-059-062315-
Montgomery-Estill-Powell-
658 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT POWELL...SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN ESTILL COUNTIES...

At 656 PM EDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located over
the region. The storms were nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch diameter hail are possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Stanton, Jeffersonville, Camargo, Clay City, Pilot, Levee, Bowen,
Kimbrell, Slade, Bean, Waltersville, Virden, Vaughns Mill, Hardwick,
Rosslyn, Knowlton, Haystack, Rogers Chapel, Westbend and Fitchburg.

LAT...LON 3782 8363 3772 8371 3771 8376 3774 8399
      3784 8402 3784 8400 3787 8403 3787 8402
      3790 8399 3792 8399 3793 8397 3797 8399
      3800 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 246DEG 0KT 3783 8384

HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
711 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ060-062345-
Menifee-
711 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MENIFEE COUNTY...

At 710 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Tabor, or near
Frenchburg. The storm is nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frenchburg, Wellington, Campsites in the Indian Creek area of the
Daniel Boone National Forrest, Means, Stoll, Cornwell, Rothwell,
Cedar Groves, Denniston, Dan, Fagan, Tabor, Ratlitt, Sudith,
Scranton, Artville, Mariba, Pomeroyton, Big Woods and Korea.

LAT...LON 3801 8344 3794 8344 3783 8353 3782 8359
      3783 8362 3782 8363 3783 8364 3792 8377
      3799 8377 3801 8374 3800 8372 3803 8366
      3802 8363 3801 8361 3801 8358 3803 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 006DEG 0KT 3793 8367

HAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
724 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

KYZ084-085-062345-
Whitley-McCreary-
724 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MCCREARY AND WEST
CENTRAL WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 723 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Beulah Heights,
or near Whitley City, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations which may be impacted include...
Beulah Heights, Bounty, Honeybee, Cumberland Falls S.P. and Duckrun.

LAT...LON 3673 8426 3667 8435 3671 8440 3677 8452
      3688 8435 3679 8430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 143DEG 16KT 3677 8437

HAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
941 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OLYMPIA                 38.10N 83.70W
09/06/2018                   BATH               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER WAS OBSERVED FLOWING ACROSS ELK LICK ROAD AND EAST
            HIGHWAY 36 IN OLYMPIA. THE ROADS HAD TO BE CLOSED AS A
            RESULT.

&&

AR