Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Jackson, KY

217 
WWUS53 KJKL 172242
SVSJKL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
642 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

KYC147-199-231-172252-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180317T2300Z/
Wayne KY-Pulaski KY-McCreary KY-
642 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WAYNE...SOUTH CENTRAL PULASKI
AND CENTRAL MCCREARY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
south central Kentucky.

LAT...LON 3691 8497 3692 8496 3695 8495 3696 8492
      3695 8490 3697 8488 3695 8437 3694 8436
      3665 8438 3669 8476 3679 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 271DEG 30KT 3689 8471 

$$

RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
521 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 520 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

A cold front was bisecting the forecast area from east to west
late this afternoon, with a low pressure system tracking along the
front from central into eastern KY. Showers and thunderstorms have
quickly developed along the front. The regime will shift southward
this evening. There is good speed shear in place, and dry mid
levels with steep lapse rates. The severe weather parameter which
is looking puny is the moisture. Strong heating has mixed drier
air to the surface with dew points only in the 30s and 40s over
most of the southern portion of the area late this afternoon. Can
not rule out severe weather in places where higher dew points
linger or redevelop, but for much of the area late afternoon
conditions don't look all that favorable. Freezing level and wet
bulb zero height are quite low, which favors large amounts of
small hail. Any large hail would probably need to come from storms
with significant rotation. Storms should taper off from northwest
to southeast this evening after cold fropa.

Surface high pressure passing to our north will provide fair
weather Sunday into Sunday night. Another low pressure system
heading east from the southern plains will pull the front back north
toward KY as a warm Sunday night. Showers could make a return to
our southwest counties by dawn, but will more likely hold off
until the daytime on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 520 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

Model solutions are in decent agreement, sufficient enough to pick
out the main features of concern through the extended. Flow aloft
amplifies with time but remains fairly progressive, with implications
that our generally unsettled pattern will continue with only one
relatively short period of fair weather from Thursday through at
least part of Friday. Consequently our weather is active straight
out of the gate as a mid level low, upper level wave moves into the
region Monday. Additional shortwave disturbances follow Tuesday into
Wednesday before exiting to our east by Thursday. Solutions differ
on timing another shortwave disturbance into the region by the end
of the period, with the 12Z GFS bringing our next weather maker into
the area by late Friday into Saturday. The 0Z ECMWF and 12Z Canadian
hold off on this system until beyond the end of the period, and seem
to suggest a deeper, more organized storm system.

Closer to the surface, a low pressure system will pass through the
Tennessee Valley Region Monday/Monday night. Instability is marginal
but may be enough to kick of a thunderstorm or two late Monday into
Monday night. Shortwave disturbances following in the wake of the
initial low will be responsible for the redevelopment of another
surface low or two over the southern Appalachians through Tuesday
and Wednesday. If enough cold air manages to be drawn southward into
the region from the north, sensible weather may feature a wintry mix
of rain and snow showers for a period of time late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, particularly across the higher terrain.
However, details remain a bit too sketchy to provide any specifics
for now. Drier conditions will work into the area by Wednesday night
and Thursday as ridging moves in from the west. Fair weather should
continue through much of Friday before the next potential weather
maker moves in from the west by late week or early into the weekend.
Comparing models favored a slower arrival of the precipitation for
the end of the extended and would not be surprised if Friday winds
up dry in the end. But should not discount the GFS solution totally
based on its recent very good performance with the last few systems
to affect our area. Otherwise, near normal temperatures initially
will cool to well below normal for the mid week time frame. Temps
then rebound for the end of the week and following weekend. |

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

A slow moving cold front was located near the Mountain Parkway and
was dropping south through the forecast area at the start of the
period. Most places were VFR with scattered to broken cu. The
northern edge of the forecast area was likely IFR due to ceilings
in portions of Fleming, Rowan, and Elliott counties.

The front will continue to sink southward today. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop near and ahead of the front
late this afternoon and early this evening, but will taper off
after frontal passage tonight. IFR and MVFR ceilings are forecast
to develop southward over the region behind the front late today
and tonight, affecting the entire region by about 02z. Ceilings
are forecast to break up and give way to VFR conditions from north

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
456 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120-190000-
Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-
Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-
Pike-
Including the cities of Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside,
Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville,
Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman,
Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins,
Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
456 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 10 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late this
afternoon and early this evening over areas generally near and
south of the Mountain Parkway. Some of these storms could produce
severe weather, with large hail and strong gusty winds being the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening.

Light snow accumulations are possible late Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any hail or damaging winds
through this evening.

KYZ044-050>052-104-190000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Elliott-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, and Sandy Hook
456 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.

Light snow accumulations are possible late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

HAL/RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
528 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

KYZ068-069-080-172215-
Jackson-Rockcastle-Laurel-
528 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAUREL...JACKSON
AND ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

At 527 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Gum Sulphur, or
12 miles west of Mount Vernon, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, McKee, Carico, Donaro, Bummer, Threelinks, Robinet, Gum
Sulphur, Shop Branch, Tyner, Privett, Bradshaw, Horse Lick,
Roundstone, Spiro, Wabp, Climax, Renfro Valley, Disputanta and
Hurley.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3748 8445 3747 8438 3749 8436 3750 8389
      3748 8389 3746 8387 3726 8392 3726 8394
      3720 8394 3718 8397 3715 8394 3711 8395
      3734 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 279DEG 38KT 3744 8456

RAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
546 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

KYZ109-110-112-113-172215-
Breathitt-Floyd-Knott-Magoffin-
546 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN KNOTT...NORTHWESTERN
FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN BREATHITT AND CENTRAL MAGOFFIN COUNTIES...

At 546 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cornelia, or 9
miles southwest of Salyersville, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prestonsburg, Mason, Estill, Martin, Wayland, Allen, Fredville, Buck,
Vail, Hippo, Handshoe, Gunlock, Glo, Printer, Lancer, Carver,
Daisydell, Orchard, Dotson and West Royalton Station.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3734 8279 3740 8305 3758 8329 3768 8326
      3770 8325 3771 8325 3775 8324 3768 8270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 283DEG 32KT 3765 8317

SHALLENBERGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
621 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

KYZ110-120-172315-
Floyd-Pike-
621 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FLOYD AND PIKE
COUNTIES...

At 621 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ivel, or near
Prestonsburg, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pikeville, Prestonsburg, Coal Run Village, Martin, Forest Hills,
Allen, Huddy, Meta, Jamboree, Bammer, Fishtrap Lake, Garden Village,
Printer, Lancer, Aluba, Piso, Betsy Layne, Toonerville, Ivel and
Honaker.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3733 8226 3753 8279 3771 8275 3764 8222
      3762 8221 3763 8218 3759 8215 3759 8213
      3757 8214 3755 8213 3756 8208 3753 8205
      3755 8204 3754 8202 3754 8197 3753 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 280DEG 37KT 3761 8268

SHALLENBERGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
623 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

KYZ086>088-116-117-172315-
Clay-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Leslie-
623 PM EDT SAT MAR 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL HARLAN...
NORTHEASTERN BELL...KNOX...SOUTHWESTERN LESLIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES...

At 623 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Rossland, or 7
miles northwest of Barbourville, moving east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Barbourville, Harlan, Loyall, Wallins Creek, Sandy Fork, Hoskinston,
Bledsoe, Artemus, Brightshade, Swan Lake, Moore Hill, Coldiron,
Barnyard, Salt Gum, Beverly, Saylor, Erose, Elcomb, Jarvis and Cranes
Nest.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3682 8403 3684 8404 3685 8404 3686 8406
      3695 8410 3699 8404 3698 8396 3700 8393
      3701 8394 3702 8392 3710 8332 3680 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 266DEG 42KT 3691 8401

RAY