River Flood Advisory 9, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
517 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 455 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

A nearly stationary cold front remains across the region with
persistent southwest flow aloft of deep moisture into the region
with PW in the 1 to 1.4 inch range across most of the region. A
shortwave trough is approaching from the southwest and isentropic
lift are leading to rounds of moderate to at time heavy showers
across the region. In addition, an associated surface wave of low
pressure is approaching from the Tn Valley. Flooding of streams
and creeks as well as some area rivers is ongoing at this point.
Storm total rainfall has reached 3 to 4 inches from McCreary
County to Harlan County and 2 to 3 inches for most areas south of
the Mtn Parkway. Portions of the Cumberland, Kentucky, and Big
Sandy Rivers and tributaries continue to rise.

The surface wave nearing south central KY should track into
northeast KY this morning and to upstate NY by late this
afternoon. After lifting north back across the far northwest
eastern Bluegrass counties through mid morning, the stalled out
boundary should begin pushing southeast as the low reaches OH late
this morning, and reach the VA border around sunset. Sfc high
pressure should begin building east into the region although the
main shortwave trough currently working across the Plains will
approach the OH Valley late this afternoon and gradually work
across the area through late tonight and early on Monday.

Although deeper moisture will have briefly departed the northern
and western counties and the entire CWA for that matter, moisture
should again increase from the southwest ahead of the shortwave
trough this evening and tonight. This should lead to a round of
lighter precipitation with atmospheric profiles across the
northwest initially supporting rain though as colder air moves in
at the lower levels freezing rain and sleet will be possible with
snow also possible as the cold air depth deepens and or if omega
can remove warm air aloft. QPF for this event will be light and
ground and road surface temperatures will be mild going into the
event. However, at least a light glaze of freezing rain will be
possible with a dusting to possibly as much as a half of an inch
of snow generally north of a Somerset to London to Jackson to
Paintsville line. The threat for light rain across the far
southeast and frozen or freezing precipitation should diminish
across the far northwest by sunrise on Monday and by 10 AM across
the remainder of the area. Mid level height rises should ensue for
the remainder of the period with sfc high pressure continuing to
build in.

The flood watch remains in place for most locations south of I 64
through 3 PM this afternoon as rain continues. Locations within
the flood watch but are not already under a flood watch or flood
advisory could still experience enough runoff for new flooding.
With the continued rain on the order of a half of an inch to one
inch through midday and at least flooding of low lying and poor
drainage areas should continue through this morning with some
area creeks and streams and rivers still rising.

As for the winter event, slick or icy spots will likely develop
overnight mainly across the western third of the area especially
on any secondary or untreated roads as cold air advection will
also lead to road surface cooling to the freezing mark and below.
An SPS will be issued for this and it will be highlighted in the
HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 423 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

Given the active flooding going on during the shift, chose to stick
pretty closely with what the model blend gave for the extended
portion of the forecast. Given multiple disturbances expected to
move through the region during this time, and differing solutions
between the extended models, the blended solution was probably the
best way to go anyways.

Upper level pattern will feature a large area of high pressure
shifting from the southern Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico Monday
into Tuesday, where it will remain in place through the rest of the
work week, before slowly shifting back into the southern Atlantic
during the weekend. Kentucky will find itself under the influence of
this southern stream system, with generally deamplified ridging to
zonal flow across the region through much of the extended. This will
allow for the advection of warm air, and at times, the combination
of warm and moist air from the Gulf.

Tuesday night (start of the period) may be a bit on the cool side
compared to much of the extended forecast, with an exiting cold
front resulting in more northerly flow in the llvls. Overnight lows
are forecast to fall below freezing, in the upper 20s and low 30s
across a good portion of the northern and western CWA, while mid and
upper 30s are expected elsewhere. However, by during the day
Tuesday, return flow will mean surface winds will quickly get back
in line with the mid and upper level flow once again, pulling warmer
air into the region from the SW. Temps will quickly climb into the
50s for highs.

Both the GFS and ECMWF try to bring varying degrees of scattered
precip across the region Tuesday into Wednesday, however a more
substantial system is expected to shift E into the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. Models then lose quite a bit of agreement for
the remainder of the work week, with the GFS pulling a frontal
system and substantial precip across the state Thursday night into
Friday (a continuation of ongoing rain chances from during the day
Thursday), while the ECMWF shows a defined dry period between the
system on Thursday and the frontal precip that occurs some 12 hours
later, during the day on Friday. While the GFS is very quick to pull
this precip out of the region and has high pressure building in by
Friday evening, the ECMWF is quite the opposite, showing the
heaviest precip across the CWA with its slower solution. Once again,
given such uncertainty, sticking with the model blend was probably
wisest in this case.

The one nice thing is that, besides the increase in moisture
(including clouds in addition to precip chances), the SW flow will
promote very mild temperatures across the region through the work
week. Well above seasonal normals are on tap, with highs in the low
to mid 60s both Wednesday and Thursday. Depending on when the
frontal passage actually takes place as we head into Friday, temps
could vary quite a bit (warmer if the ECWMF pans out, and cooler if
the GFS wins). Friday night into Saturday will reflect post frontal
conditions with cooler temps on tap, though return flow shortly
thereafter could boost daytime temps back into the 50s to round out
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SUN FEB 11 2018

Generally MVFR or VFR Cigs and VIS are reported south of a slow
moving boundary bisecting the region from between KEKQ and KBYL
to just north of KLOZ, KJKL, and near KSJS and IFR CIGS and or VIS
to the north. The boundary will slowly sag southeast with IFR
developing or continuing at the TAF sites and across most of the
CWA during the first 6 hours of the period with rounds of showers
continuing. Stratus build down fog is anticipated especially at
KSYM and some locations will near or fall below airport mins. Some
improvement to MVFR is possible 12Z to 21Z generally south and
southeast of the TAF sites before conditions again return to IFR
and remain there through the end of the period. Winds will
generally be light through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 3 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ058>060-068-069-
079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP

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