River Flood Advisory 3, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
632 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2018

The forecast has been pretty much on track so far this evening.
Steady, soaking rains will continue to push across eastern
Kentucky tonight, tomorrow, and into tomorrow night. It appears
that the highest rainfall totals will continue to be across our
central, southern and southeastern counties. We have had reports
of high water from several locations across the area so far this
evening. The latest obs were used to freshen up the forecast
grids, and to establish new trends, but no major update to the
forecast is necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 315 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2018

The latest surface analysis shows the front has worked into
portions of central and northern KY, with the strong indication
based on the Kentucky Mesonet winds and temperatures. A mesoscale
low is located across middle TN and will ride north along and near
the boundary. The better QPE has been in the Cumberland Valley
and far southeast closer to the boundary layer convergence zone
that showed up well on WSR-88D radar earlier. Overall the trends
have shown less support for the 12Z NAM solution and other short
term model solutions that showed zone of higher QPF further
northwest, but opted not to make too many changes in relation to
QPF given some remaining uncertainty. However, this does lead to
more confidence on lesser precip in the far north where the watch
was not issued.

In terms, of tonight think models are in good agreement in seeing
another area of low pressure ride north and provide several more
shots of rain across portions of eastern Kentucky. The more robust
QPE will most likely reside in the far southeast and Cumberland
Valley regions based on where the front in expected to setup. Now
as we move into Sunday the QPE will trail off through the day as
the boundary slowly pushes to the southeast by Sunday afternoon.
The temperature forecast will remain somewhat difficult as a
result of the surface boundary and leaned toward the blends for
help with that. The coldest temperatures tonight will reside in
the lower 40s north of I-64 tonight compared to lower 50s south of
the Mountain Parkway.

As for overall QPF, continued to lean toward the model blend in
coordination with surrounding offices. This will still lead to the
potential of 1 to 2 plus inches of additional rainfall south of
the Mountain Parkway through 18Z Sun with amounts trailing off to
the north of the parkway.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2018

The cold front will be through eastern Kentucky Sunday evening,
leaving a post-frontal upslope regime in place as surface ridging
builds across the upper Midwest and approaches the Ohio Valley.
Saturated low-mid levels will keep precipitation lingering into the
night as rain transitions to a mix with sleet and then snow. Not
keen on the idea of freezing rain in this pattern as temperatures
aloft will likely not lag as far behind surface temperatures as
model soundings suggest. Could still see some freezing of lingering
moisture on elevated surfaces, but precipitation should go from rain
to frozen hydrometeors. Snowfall amounts currently look to fall in
the 1/2 inch range across the Bluegrass. Precipitation will then
likely convert back to a little rain Monday afternoon as moisture
hangs up along the Appalachians with an upper impulse lingering and
gradually shearing out.

Surface ridging translating across the Great Lakes will keep the
recent cool dome in place across the Ohio Valley into early Tuesday
as return flow sets up downstream of an approaching northern stream
wave. This will bring a renewed round of rain chances back to much
of eastern Kentucky, with near/below freezing surface temperatures
potentially leading to some freezing rain prior to a stout warmup
into the 50s.

Zonal to slight southwest flow then looks to materialize into mid-
late week as longwave troughing spans Canada, coupled with an upper
low near Baja and ridging across the Gulf of Mexico. Specifics
regarding evolution/placement of these synoptic features will
ultimately drive local sensible weather. Warm and unsettled
conditions do look to generally be on tap Wednesday and Thursday as
a slug of moisture advects northeast from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Temperatures currently look to top out in the 60s for most
locales both days, with at least a minor cooldown for the end of the
week as northern stream troughing attempts to make better headway
south as colder air digs in on its backside. The looming Desert
CONUS low will however keep precipitation chances in the offing into
next weekend as deep layer southwest flow returns with its eastward
advance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 632 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2018

The TAF locations should begin to experience IFR to LIFR
conditions between 1 and 2Z this evening, as rain and low level
clouds continue to move across the region. These conditions should
prevail overall through the end of the TAF period, but some
fluctuations between the lower CIGs and VSBYs and MVFR conditions
will likely occur from time to time. Winds should remain generally
light and variable at around 5KTs. The primary concerns for any
aviators will be the heavy rain and low CIGs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KYZ058>060-068-069-079-
080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
346 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-120000-
Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-
McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-
Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside,
Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
346 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible across
the area tonight. Rises on creeks and streams to bankfull or into
flood by late this evening and tonight are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible through midday
on Sunday. This excessive rainfall, combined with already
saturated soils, could lead to rises to bankfull or to flood
along area creeks and streams. Larger river flooding is also
anticipated from this rainfall into the upcoming week, especially
for portions of the Kentucky and Cumberland River basins.

Snow and sleet are possible Sunday night into Monday morning,
mainly along and northwest of a Somerset to Jackson to Paintsville
line.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KYZ044-050>052-120000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, and Morehead
346 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rounds of moderate to heavy rain are possible today and tonight.
This rain, combined with already saturated soils, could lead to
rises on area creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A round of moderate rainfall is possible through Sunday morning.
The rainfall already received, combined with already saturated
soils, could lead to rises on area creeks, streams, and rivers.

Snow and sleet are possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

Light freezing rain is possible on Monday night and early on
Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

JP/DJ

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
700 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     FLOOD            EVARTS                  36.86N 83.20W
02/10/2018                   HARLAN             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING ACROSS KELLY STREET.

&&

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
703 PM EST SAT FEB 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FLOOD            SMILAX                  37.13N 83.28W
02/10/2018                   LESLIE             KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOOD WATERS TORE A CULVERT OUT OF THE GROUND ON LEVIS
            BRANCH ROAD IN THE SMILAX AREA. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

GREIF