Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
854 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Today will start out with low cloudiness across the Suwannee
Valley and southeastern Georgia which should burn off and lift
into a cumulus deck between 9 and 10 a.m. That low cloudiness may
inhibit destabilization over the Nature Coast counties with
convection initiating closer to Interstate 75 and the Florida-
Georgia State Line later this morning. With more stable
conditions near the Altamaha River we should take a day off from
major convection in that area but from about Waycross southward we
should see an active day. Mostly clear conditions are evident
south and east of a line from Fernandina Beach to Trenton and this
area will heat up and destabilize rapidly today. Expect to see
heat index values rise into the 103-108 degree range by late
morning.

We currently have max surface based CAPEs over 5000 J/KG over the
Gulf and Nature Coast with some convection over the Apalache Bay
area. By noon that area will expand to cover the entire north-
central Florida Peninsula area. 0-3 km storm relative helicity is
only in the 100 to 150 range so not looking at a tornadic day
with the greatest threat likely to be strong down busts.

The main flow will be from the west to the east across the area
with the cells moving east at 20 to 30 mph also increasing
confidence in linear downburst with and ahead of cells. So expect
early convective initiation along the Florida-Georgia State Line
moving east through the Jacksonville Metro Area and over the
coastal waters. The convection will then fill in over most of the
area south of waycross by early afternoon with cells again moving
over the coastal waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop near and over almost all of
the fields later this morning and continue through most of the
day. Low ceilings in the 1-2.5 kft range, reduced 1-3sm
visibilities and downburst conditions will be the primary threat.
Wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots in and near convection are definitely
possible with a slight risk of severe conditions at all fields.

&&

.MARINE...
Going to be a deceptive day for boaters with conditions looking
good during the morning hours but convective initiation over the
land areas this morning will cover the Intracoastal Waterway and
coastal waters by early afternoon. Strong possibility of wind gusts
near or above 35 knots with those storms and boaters should be
ready to make for shelter/port with short notice today. Not going
to be a good day to be well offshore today. Plan to issue a Marine
Weather Statement for this possibility after completing the AFD.

Southwest flow will continue as low pressure develops over
the Carolinas and drops southward early next week. Speeds generally
in the 10-15 knot range may increase to cautionary levels offshore
early next week. Offshore moving storms with wind gusts of 35-50
knots will be possible today and possibly on Monday and
mariners/boaters will need to be prepared for rapidly changing
weather conditions.

Rip Currents: Low risk today due to offshore flow. Have gone with a
moderate risk Ne Fl beaches Monday as the flow increases and becomes
onshore in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  72  90  73 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  93  76  88  77 /  40  40  50  50
JAX  94  73  91  74 /  40  40  50  30
SGJ  94  76  90  75 /  60  40  40  20
GNV  92  74  90  73 /  60  40  40  20
OCF  90  75  89  74 /  60  50  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Sandrik/Bricker

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
224 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW GAINESVILLE       29.71N 82.35W
07/22/2018                   Alachua            FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT FROM EMERGENCY MANAGER IN ALACHUA COUNTY OF
            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT AT NORTHSIDE PARK NEAR
            GAINESVILLE.

&&

RBRICKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
235 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

FLZ031-036-221900-
Alachua FL-Bradford FL-
235 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ALACHUA AND SOUTHEASTERN
BRADFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gainesville, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Alachua, University Of Florida, Orange Heights,
Gainesville Airport, Newnans Lake, Waldo and Hampton.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northern Florida.

LAT...LON 2963 8245 2968 8254 2977 8254 2990 8211
      2963 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 255DEG 23KT 2970 8240

MCGINNIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
236 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             PALATKA                 29.65N 81.66W
07/22/2018  E0.75 INCH       PUTNAM             FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA RELAYED A REPORT OF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.0 INCH SIZE
            HAIL FALLING IN PALATKA FROM A PUBLIC CITIZEN.

&&

RBRICKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
303 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST PALATKA            29.65N 81.60W
07/22/2018                   PUTNAM             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES FELL DOWN FROM HIGH WINDS AND CAUSED A
            POWERLINE TRANSFORMER TO BLOW OUT.

&&

RBRICKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
303 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

FLZ036-040-221930-
Alachua FL-Marion FL-
303 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA AND NORTH
CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 303 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cross Creek, or 9 miles northwest of Citra, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Hawthorne, Cross Creek, Rochelle, Micanopy, McIntosh, Lochloosa and
Grove Park.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northern and northeastern Florida.

LAT...LON 2948 8235 2954 8235 2967 8206 2958 8205
      2947 8206 2942 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 257DEG 21KT 2950 8224

MCGINNIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

FLZ021-022-030-031-035-036-222000-
Columbia FL-Union FL-Suwannee FL-Alachua FL-Bradford FL-Gilchrist FL-
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GILCHRIST...
NORTHWESTERN ALACHUA...WEST CENTRAL BRADFORD...SOUTHWESTERN UNION...
SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA AND SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

At 316 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort White, or near Ichetucknee Spring, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Worthington Spring, Ichetucknee Spring, Alachua, High Springs, Fort
White, Worthington Springs, Groves, Providence, Beasley and Upland
Pines.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northern Florida.

LAT...LON 2984 8276 2994 8286 3002 8273 3000 8227
      2973 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 279DEG 18KT 2992 8266

MCGINNIS