Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
854 AM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Today will start out with low cloudiness across the Suwannee
Valley and southeastern Georgia which should burn off and lift
into a cumulus deck between 9 and 10 a.m. That low cloudiness may
inhibit destabilization over the Nature Coast counties with
convection initiating closer to Interstate 75 and the Florida-
Georgia State Line later this morning. With more stable
conditions near the Altamaha River we should take a day off from
major convection in that area but from about Waycross southward we
should see an active day. Mostly clear conditions are evident
south and east of a line from Fernandina Beach to Trenton and this
area will heat up and destabilize rapidly today. Expect to see
heat index values rise into the 103-108 degree range by late
morning.

We currently have max surface based CAPEs over 5000 J/KG over the
Gulf and Nature Coast with some convection over the Apalache Bay
area. By noon that area will expand to cover the entire north-
central Florida Peninsula area. 0-3 km storm relative helicity is
only in the 100 to 150 range so not looking at a tornadic day
with the greatest threat likely to be strong down busts.

The main flow will be from the west to the east across the area
with the cells moving east at 20 to 30 mph also increasing
confidence in linear downburst with and ahead of cells. So expect
early convective initiation along the Florida-Georgia State Line
moving east through the Jacksonville Metro Area and over the
coastal waters. The convection will then fill in over most of the
area south of waycross by early afternoon with cells again moving
over the coastal waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop near and over almost all of
the fields later this morning and continue through most of the
day. Low ceilings in the 1-2.5 kft range, reduced 1-3sm
visibilities and downburst conditions will be the primary threat.
Wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots in and near convection are definitely
possible with a slight risk of severe conditions at all fields.

&&

.MARINE...
Going to be a deceptive day for boaters with conditions looking
good during the morning hours but convective initiation over the
land areas this morning will cover the Intracoastal Waterway and
coastal waters by early afternoon. Strong possibility of wind gusts
near or above 35 knots with those storms and boaters should be
ready to make for shelter/port with short notice today. Not going
to be a good day to be well offshore today. Plan to issue a Marine
Weather Statement for this possibility after completing the AFD.

Southwest flow will continue as low pressure develops over
the Carolinas and drops southward early next week. Speeds generally
in the 10-15 knot range may increase to cautionary levels offshore
early next week. Offshore moving storms with wind gusts of 35-50
knots will be possible today and possibly on Monday and
mariners/boaters will need to be prepared for rapidly changing
weather conditions.

Rip Currents: Low risk today due to offshore flow. Have gone with a
moderate risk Ne Fl beaches Monday as the flow increases and becomes
onshore in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  72  90  73 /  40  40  50  30
SSI  93  76  88  77 /  40  40  50  50
JAX  94  73  91  74 /  40  40  50  30
SGJ  94  76  90  75 /  60  40  40  20
GNV  92  74  90  73 /  60  40  40  20
OCF  90  75  89  74 /  60  50  40  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Sandrik/Bricker

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1218 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

FLZ025-032-033-037-125-133-138-221700-
Coastal Flagler FL-Coastal St. Johns FL-Inland Duval FL-Putnam FL-
Coastal Duval FL-Clay FL-Inland St. Johns FL-
1218 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLAGLER...ST.
JOHNS...NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM...NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN
DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1218 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Ortega to near Bostwick. Movement was east at
35 mph.

Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine, Palatka, Orange Park, Green Cove Springs, Hastings,
East Palatka, Unf, Mandarin, Fruit Cove and Ponte Vedra Beach.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northeastern Florida.

LAT...LON 2965 8132 2964 8132 2964 8174 3024 8176
      3041 8137 3024 8134 2964 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 270DEG 29KT 3026 8168 2972 8165

SANDRIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1239 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     TSTM WND GST     VILANO BEACH            29.94N 81.30W
07/22/2018  M40 MPH          ST. JOHNS          FL   MESONET

            A WEATHER FLOW SITE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH.

&&

RBRICKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1241 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

FLZ031-036-221730-
Alachua FL-Bradford FL-
1241 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALACHUA AND BRADFORD COUNTIES
UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

At 1240 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lake Butler to near Florahome. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Starke, Alachua, High Springs, Hawthorne, Archer,
University Of Florida, New River, Beasley and Rochelle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northern Florida.

LAT...LON 2943 8221 2946 8219 2949 8222 2948 8255
      2954 8256 2955 8266 2983 8266 2986 8260
      2994 8252 2992 8242 2993 8236 2996 8234
      2996 8231 3003 8226 3004 8222 3010 8217
      3008 8205 2943 8207
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 236DEG 21KT 2999 8233 2971 8184

SANDRIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1243 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W EAST PALATKA        29.66N 81.69W
07/22/2018  M41 MPH          Putnam             FL   AWOS

            PALATKA AIRPORT AWOS SITE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH.

&&

RBRICKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
116 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 PM     TSTM WND GST     FLAGLER BEACH           29.47N 81.13W
07/22/2018  M42 MPH          FLAGLER            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST OF 42 MPH MEASURED AT FLAGLER BEACH.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

FLZ037-040-221815-
Putnam FL-Marion FL-
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION AND SOUTHERN
PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 122 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake George, or near Crescent City, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Crescent City, Pomona Park, Fort McCoy, Salt Springs, Lake Delancy,
Fruitland, Orange Springs, San Mateo, Satsuma and Welaka.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
northern and northeastern Florida.

LAT...LON 2926 8208 2943 8207 2944 8207 2944 8206
      2959 8205 2961 8152 2949 8152 2945 8149
      2940 8148 2939 8145 2940 8144 2938 8145
      2932 8168 2930 8167 2929 8165 2928 8164
      2922 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 281DEG 42KT 2936 8157

SANDRIK