Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
217 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.Near term.../through Friday/...

The region will be between high pressure to the South and a trough
of low pressure to the North this period. This will result in a
continued light West/Southwest low level flow. Each afternoon,
diurnal instability will lead to the development of convection. In
this pattern the East coast sea breeze will be able to push inland,
but likely not much further than I95, while the Gulf sea breeze
should be able to push well into NE FL. These sea breezes will help
to support development and direct movement of the convective
activity this afternoon. In addition, the proximity of the troughing
will aid in convective potential over inland GA as well. Near term
model depicting energy pushing South from this boundary through the
evening continuing convective potential through around midnight.

Temperatures are expected to trend above normal this period, with
heat indices rising into the 100 to around 105 range each
afternoon.

&&

.Short Term.../Friday night through Sunday/...

High pressure will be East of the region this period, resulting in a
mostly light Southerly low level flow. This flow should provide
additional moisture for convection. Convection will be initiated
each afternoon by diurnal instability, with ample moisture
available. The convection will be aided by sea breeze boundaries
near the coasts. In general expect a higher than normal coverage in
afternoon/evening storms this period. Most convective activity will
dissipate in the evening hours, but given the expected increased
coverage, could see a few storms linger past midnight.

Highs will trend near normal this period, with heat indices peaking
each afternoon near to slightly above 100.

&&

.Long Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Surface high pressure ridge will build from the East to the
Northeast this period. The prevailing low level flow will be from
the South, with input from the both the East coast and Gulf sea
breezes. Convection will initiate each afternoon and evening due to
diurnal instability with additional focus on sea breeze boundaries.
Convection will largely dissipate during the evenings, with partial
overnight clearing.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected this period,
with afternoon heat indices around 100 to a little above.

&&

.Marine...

Surface high pressure will be South of area waters with troughing to
the North through Friday. The high will then be to the East through
the weekend, and toward the Northeast early next week. The potential
for thunderstorms will exist through this period.

&&

Sea breeze front convergence over north Florida and southeast Georgia
has been somewhat capped with a few cells blowing though the cap
near KGNV and over the Ocala National Forest area. Ceilings near
CBs are running in the 3 to 5 kft range and expect that to
continue this afternoon into this evening with convection in tempo
groups for all fields between 18 and 24 utc. We then take a bit
of a breather after the loss of diurnal heating as a squall line
forms in central Georgia and drops southward. Both the HRRR and
ARW models have this feature even though NAM20 doesn't model it
well. Looking for that line to drop through KSSI between 02-06
utc, the JAX metro fields between 04 and 08 utc and Gainesville
between 06 to 09 utc. As the line will be bowing as it comes
through the area looking for strong potential wind gusts of 25 to
40 kts at all fields but pulled it back to 15 to 30 kts at KGNV as
the line begins to break up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  94  75  95 /  30  40  50  50
SSI  78  92  78  92 /  20  40  20  30
JAX  76  94  76  95 /  20  60  30  50
SGJ  77  93  75  92 /  20  20  20  40
GNV  75  93  75  93 /  30  60  10  60
OCF  74  90  75  92 /  30  70  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
524 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

GAZ132-272200-
Coffee GA-
524 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Douglas, drifting southeast at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage. Frequent deadly lightning and very heavy rain can also
be expected.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas.

LAT...LON 3151 8286 3158 8271 3149 8262 3143 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 337DEG 8KT 3151 8277

WOLF

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