Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Jacksonville, FL

835 
WWUS52 KJAX 280725
SVSJAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
325 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

FLC023-047-121-280735-
/O.EXP.KJAX.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-180628T0730Z/
Columbia FL-Suwannee FL-Hamilton FL-
325 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL COLUMBIA...
NORTHEASTERN SUWANNEE AND EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
330 AM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3048 8306 3059 8290 3037 8263 3020 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 321DEG 18KT 3041 8286 

$$

HESS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
217 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018

.Near term.../through Friday/...

The region will be between high pressure to the South and a trough
of low pressure to the North this period. This will result in a
continued light West/Southwest low level flow. Each afternoon,
diurnal instability will lead to the development of convection. In
this pattern the East coast sea breeze will be able to push inland,
but likely not much further than I95, while the Gulf sea breeze
should be able to push well into NE FL. These sea breezes will help
to support development and direct movement of the convective
activity this afternoon. In addition, the proximity of the troughing
will aid in convective potential over inland GA as well. Near term
model depicting energy pushing South from this boundary through the
evening continuing convective potential through around midnight.

Temperatures are expected to trend above normal this period, with
heat indices rising into the 100 to around 105 range each
afternoon.

&&

.Short Term.../Friday night through Sunday/...

High pressure will be East of the region this period, resulting in a
mostly light Southerly low level flow. This flow should provide
additional moisture for convection. Convection will be initiated
each afternoon by diurnal instability, with ample moisture
available. The convection will be aided by sea breeze boundaries
near the coasts. In general expect a higher than normal coverage in
afternoon/evening storms this period. Most convective activity will
dissipate in the evening hours, but given the expected increased
coverage, could see a few storms linger past midnight.

Highs will trend near normal this period, with heat indices peaking
each afternoon near to slightly above 100.

&&

.Long Term.../Sunday night through Wednesday/...

Surface high pressure ridge will build from the East to the
Northeast this period. The prevailing low level flow will be from
the South, with input from the both the East coast and Gulf sea
breezes. Convection will initiate each afternoon and evening due to
diurnal instability with additional focus on sea breeze boundaries.
Convection will largely dissipate during the evenings, with partial
overnight clearing.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected this period,
with afternoon heat indices around 100 to a little above.

&&

.Marine...

Surface high pressure will be South of area waters with troughing to
the North through Friday. The high will then be to the East through
the weekend, and toward the Northeast early next week. The potential
for thunderstorms will exist through this period.

&&

Sea breeze front convergence over north Florida and southeast Georgia
has been somewhat capped with a few cells blowing though the cap
near KGNV and over the Ocala National Forest area. Ceilings near
CBs are running in the 3 to 5 kft range and expect that to
continue this afternoon into this evening with convection in tempo
groups for all fields between 18 and 24 utc. We then take a bit
of a breather after the loss of diurnal heating as a squall line
forms in central Georgia and drops southward. Both the HRRR and
ARW models have this feature even though NAM20 doesn't model it
well. Looking for that line to drop through KSSI between 02-06
utc, the JAX metro fields between 04 and 08 utc and Gainesville
between 06 to 09 utc. As the line will be bowing as it comes
through the area looking for strong potential wind gusts of 25 to
40 kts at all fields but pulled it back to 15 to 30 kts at KGNV as
the line begins to break up.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  94  75  95 /  30  40  50  50
SSI  78  92  78  92 /  20  40  20  30
JAX  76  94  76  95 /  20  60  30  50
SGJ  77  93  75  92 /  20  20  20  40
GNV  75  93  75  93 /  30  60  10  60
OCF  74  90  75  92 /  30  70  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
912 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE JEKYLL ISLAND     31.05N 81.41W
06/27/2018  M42 MPH          Glynn              GA   MESONET

            WIND GUST OF 42 MPH MEASURED AT JEKYLL ISLAND

&&

WCORLESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
208 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

FLZ020>022-GAZ150-162>164-280700-
Columbia FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-Ware GA-Clinch GA-Echols GA-
Charlton GA-
208 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA...
NORTHWESTERN SUWANNEE...HAMILTON...ECHOLS...SOUTH CENTRAL WARE...
CLINCH AND WEST CENTRAL CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 208 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Du Pont to 9 miles northeast of Madison.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph
can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Jasper, Homerville, Jennings, Fargo, Statenville, Suwannee
River State Park, Suwannee Springs, Du Pont and Mayday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 8314 3079 8313 3081 8310 3085 8309
      3085 8301 3087 8297 3105 8297 3111 8291
      3090 8229 3023 8301 3037 8319 3039 8317
      3041 8318 3042 8322 3046 8322 3047 8324
      3052 8324 3055 8326 3062 8327 3063 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 303DEG 25KT 3095 8289 3059 8333

HESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
240 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

FLZ020>022-280730-
Columbia FL-Hamilton FL-Suwannee FL-
240 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIA...
NORTHEASTERN SUWANNEE AND HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

At 240 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crossroads, or near Jasper, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph
can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Jasper, White Springs, Suwannee Springs, Suwannee River
State Park, Wellborn, Belmont, Crossroads and Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 8307 3062 8296 3051 8254 3010 8289
      3046 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 302DEG 25KT 3053 8305

HESS