Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
340 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday:

Warm moist air will keep the area muggy for another day. With a
the ridge to the east and the disturbance to the southwest, there
will be a steady flow of moisture into the region. Although much
of the activity was limited to the west/southwest this morning. A
boundary across the center of the cwa has helped to fuel
convection. A few storms have produced wind gusts near 40 mph.
While widespread severe storms were not anticipated, occasional
40-45 mph gusts can blow a few things over. Looking for the
convection to taper off after 00z with a few showers lingering
across the northern portions of the area.

With the system to the southwest moving very little, but having some
tropical characteristics, left a chance of rain in the southwest
through the night. The system doesn't move much, so should see more
of the same for tomorrow. Showers in the west shifting as the
disturbance wavers near the coast. Rainfall rates were light and
steady, so not looking for flooding risks at this point. Since
clouds may be more widespread tomorrow, convection should be limited
but light southwest low level flow and any areas with a good amount
of sun may see a few thunderstorms with gusty winds. /7/

Tuesday night through Sunday:

By Tuesday night & into Wednesday morning, the pattern will consist
of moist southerly flow while the deep tropical moisture plume will
exist off to the west. Our area will be situated between that and
the mid-level ridge over the southeast CONUS & Gulf of Mexico. Due
to the moist southerly flow and this weak remnant shortwave
beginning to be picked up in the mid-upper level flow, expect
efficient moisture transport & return to continue. Due to this,
expect continued warmth and humidity. In addition nearly 2+ inch PWs
will help spark scattered showers & storms. Right now lapse rates
are meager but some low-mid level flow could spark some stronger
storms with brief gusty winds if they orient more orthogonal to the
vectors. As a trough digs down by mid-late week and this shortwave
becomes picked up in the flow, some decent height falls will occur
ahead of closed low & a cold front moving into the area. This will
help spark more scattered-numerous showers & storms going into
Thursday-Friday. Due to this, this could hold down temperatures and
any heat stress concerns over the area as highs only peak in the
upper 80s-low 90s, just near or a touch below normal. Slightly
lowered PoPs Friday afternoon in the south due to some slightly
drier air possibly advecting in. There are some lapse rates and flow
as the trough digs through to the north so will have to keep an eye
on that for any strong-severe potential. In addition, CIPS has some
analogs of a few severe storms by the end of the week. For now,
going to hold off anything in the HWO with it being more on the
marginal end of things.

As we go into the weekend, in the wake of the closed low, mid-level
ridging will strengthen over southeast states & into the eastern
Gulf. Due to warming thermal profiles, with 925mb temperatures in
the low 20s degree C. range, & moisture profiles drying out
somewhat (i.e. PWs around the 1.5-1.75 inch range), couldn't rule
out some warmer than normal temperatures getting into the mid 90s.
Overall main issue could be increasing heat stress. Due to
lingering moisture & warming temperatures, heat indices could
approach the 100 to briefly 105 degrees, especially in the west by
the weekend (i.e. Saturday & especially Sunday). CPC is highlighting
this in their extended outlook, which includes Sunday, and CIPS
analogs show potential for some near heat advisory criteria. We
may have to advertise this as we get closer. For now, kept the
HWO/graphics clear of any mention just yet. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions should prevail at most sites through the afternoon.
Low clouds may briefly lead to MVFR conditions. Light rain was
occurring around HBG, but not likely to cause restrictions to
visibility within the next hour or two. May add VCSH/shra to HBG
and JAN for late afternoon. Locations with rain may see some
patchy fog overnight. May add patchy fog to HBG. High pressure
will cause similar conditions tomorrow with most locations missing
the rain. Ceilings may lower briefly. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail. /7/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  90  73  91 /  17  20   8  34
Meridian      71  93  73  93 /   1  17   5  29
Vicksburg     72  90  73  91 /  18  36  13  38
Hattiesburg   72  92  72  92 /  19  28   6  28
Natchez       71  89  73  90 /  18  37  17  42
Greenville    73  89  73  88 /  13  20  15  40
Greenwood     72  89  73  89 /   3  17  12  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

7/DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
224 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
191930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
224 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>