Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Jackson, MS

653 
WWUS54 KJAN 182128
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
428 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

MSC051-053-083-133-182138-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-180618T2130Z/
Holmes MS-Sunflower MS-Leflore MS-Humphreys MS-
428 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...
SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER...SOUTHWESTERN LEFLORE AND NORTHEASTERN
HUMPHREYS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3359 9029 3327 9016 3323 9052 3351 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 175DEG 16KT 3349 9047 

$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
340 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tuesday:

Warm moist air will keep the area muggy for another day. With a
the ridge to the east and the disturbance to the southwest, there
will be a steady flow of moisture into the region. Although much
of the activity was limited to the west/southwest this morning. A
boundary across the center of the cwa has helped to fuel
convection. A few storms have produced wind gusts near 40 mph.
While widespread severe storms were not anticipated, occasional
40-45 mph gusts can blow a few things over. Looking for the
convection to taper off after 00z with a few showers lingering
across the northern portions of the area.

With the system to the southwest moving very little, but having some
tropical characteristics, left a chance of rain in the southwest
through the night. The system doesn't move much, so should see more
of the same for tomorrow. Showers in the west shifting as the
disturbance wavers near the coast. Rainfall rates were light and
steady, so not looking for flooding risks at this point. Since
clouds may be more widespread tomorrow, convection should be limited
but light southwest low level flow and any areas with a good amount
of sun may see a few thunderstorms with gusty winds. /7/

Tuesday night through Sunday:

By Tuesday night & into Wednesday morning, the pattern will consist
of moist southerly flow while the deep tropical moisture plume will
exist off to the west. Our area will be situated between that and
the mid-level ridge over the southeast CONUS & Gulf of Mexico. Due
to the moist southerly flow and this weak remnant shortwave
beginning to be picked up in the mid-upper level flow, expect
efficient moisture transport & return to continue. Due to this,
expect continued warmth and humidity. In addition nearly 2+ inch PWs
will help spark scattered showers & storms. Right now lapse rates
are meager but some low-mid level flow could spark some stronger
storms with brief gusty winds if they orient more orthogonal to the
vectors. As a trough digs down by mid-late week and this shortwave
becomes picked up in the flow, some decent height falls will occur
ahead of closed low & a cold front moving into the area. This will
help spark more scattered-numerous showers & storms going into
Thursday-Friday. Due to this, this could hold down temperatures and
any heat stress concerns over the area as highs only peak in the
upper 80s-low 90s, just near or a touch below normal. Slightly
lowered PoPs Friday afternoon in the south due to some slightly
drier air possibly advecting in. There are some lapse rates and flow
as the trough digs through to the north so will have to keep an eye
on that for any strong-severe potential. In addition, CIPS has some
analogs of a few severe storms by the end of the week. For now,
going to hold off anything in the HWO with it being more on the
marginal end of things.

As we go into the weekend, in the wake of the closed low, mid-level
ridging will strengthen over southeast states & into the eastern
Gulf. Due to warming thermal profiles, with 925mb temperatures in
the low 20s degree C. range, & moisture profiles drying out
somewhat (i.e. PWs around the 1.5-1.75 inch range), couldn't rule
out some warmer than normal temperatures getting into the mid 90s.
Overall main issue could be increasing heat stress. Due to
lingering moisture & warming temperatures, heat indices could
approach the 100 to briefly 105 degrees, especially in the west by
the weekend (i.e. Saturday & especially Sunday). CPC is highlighting
this in their extended outlook, which includes Sunday, and CIPS
analogs show potential for some near heat advisory criteria. We
may have to advertise this as we get closer. For now, kept the
HWO/graphics clear of any mention just yet. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions should prevail at most sites through the afternoon.
Low clouds may briefly lead to MVFR conditions. Light rain was
occurring around HBG, but not likely to cause restrictions to
visibility within the next hour or two. May add VCSH/shra to HBG
and JAN for late afternoon. Locations with rain may see some
patchy fog overnight. May add patchy fog to HBG. High pressure
will cause similar conditions tomorrow with most locations missing
the rain. Ceilings may lower briefly. Otherwise, VFR conditions
should prevail. /7/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  90  73  91 /  17  20   8  34
Meridian      71  93  73  93 /   1  17   5  29
Vicksburg     72  90  73  91 /  18  36  13  38
Hattiesburg   72  92  72  92 /  19  28   6  28
Natchez       71  89  73  90 /  18  37  17  42
Greenville    73  89  73  88 /  13  20  15  40
Greenwood     72  89  73  89 /   3  17  12  36

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

7/DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
224 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
191930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
224 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
322 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE BROOKHAVEN        31.57N 90.38W
06/18/2018                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE WITH PARTIAL
            REMOVAL OF THE ROOF. ROOF WAS ALSO REMOVED
            FROM A BARN. A FEW TREES WERE DOWN IN THE
            AREA AS WELL.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
323 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

MSZ055-063>065-182100-
Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-Simpson MS-
323 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON AND JEFFERSON DAVIS
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Lone Star, or 7 miles southwest of Collins, moving northwest at
25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Collins, Prentiss, Mount Olive, Clem, Lone Star, Carson, New Hebron
and Bassfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 9004 3182 8966 3178 8965 3178 8963
      3157 8950 3143 8975 3144 8982 3142 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 142DEG 21KT 3157 8966

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
324 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

MSZ018-182100-
Bolivar MS-
324 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BOLIVAR COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Boyle, or near Cleveland, moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Mound Bayou, Renova, Boyle, Merigold and Pace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3369 9066 3367 9066 3361 9082 3377 9094
      3389 9072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 160DEG 12KT 3370 9076

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
325 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

MSZ018-182100-
Bolivar MS-
325 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BOLIVAR COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Rosedale, moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rosedale around 335 PM CDT.
  Gunnison around 355 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Beulah and Pace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3402 9091 3379 9085 3376 9101 3378 9099
      3379 9099 3381 9104 3385 9107 3387 9107
      3393 9101 3395 9108 3397 9109 3400 9102
      3396 9100 3396 9097 3398 9096 3402 9099
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 160DEG 11KT 3384 9099

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
334 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

MSZ019-025-035-182100-
Humphreys MS-Leflore MS-Sunflower MS-
334 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER...
SOUTHWESTERN LEFLORE AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 334 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Swiftown, or near Belzoni, moving north at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Indianola, Moorhead, Belzoni, Inverness, Isola, Swiftown and Morgan
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 9036 3317 9058 3345 9066 3347 9034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 174DEG 13KT 3326 9048

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DERMOTT                 33.52N 91.44W
06/18/2018                   CHICOT             AR   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ACROSS POWER LINES IN DERMOTT.
            PICTURE RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

TW