Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
410 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

...UNSEASONABLE WARMTH CONTINUING WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN THE
DELTA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday: Mid afternoon surface analysis had a nearly
stationary front near a Eupora Mississippi to Winnsboro Louisiana
line. An MCV was noted over our northeast Louisiana parishes
tracking ease northeast along this front. Local radars continued to
show most of the rainfall across our area along and behind this
boundary. There remains a low chance of severe storms along and just
ahead of this boundary through this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts
and a brief tornado or two remain the main threats although heavy
rainfall will also accompany the strongest storms. The severe storm
threat will end by this evening and no additional Tornado Watches
are expected. The flash flood threat will continue into Thursday
morning however, generally northwest of a Greenwood Mississippi to
Winnsboro Louisiana line. The stalled front will move back to the
northwest Thursday as surface and mid level ridging strengthen back
over the area from the east. Otherwise a warmer than normal and
moister than normal airmass will remain much of east Mississippi
spreading west again Thursday. Near record afternoon highs and
record warm morning lows will likely be set again and several sites.
/22/

Tomorrow Night through Friday:

The boundary that has been continuing to dump an abundant amount of
rainfall to our northwest will retreat to the north come late
Thursday/Friday morning. A few scattered rain showers can't be ruled
out Friday during the day but the majority of the region will be
dry. Sticky conditions on Friday however can't be avoid as dewpoints
linger in the mid 60s; high temperatures will be in the upper 70s.

Saturday, ahead of the cold front, is expected to be very windy
after sunrise as the atmosphere starts to mix and bring strong winds
aloft to the surface. Model soundings show winds aloft 35-45kts
around 850mbs. Sustain winds from the south of 20-25kts with gusts
to 30-35kts are being highlighted during the Saturday afternoon
period. Don't be surprised if a limited threat for high wind comes
out in the next 24 hours. With strong warm advection, temperatures
will once again over achieve and be in the mid-80s south of I-20 and
upper 70s to the north.

Late Saturday evening and early Sunday morning hours is when an
upper level trough moves in from our west along with deep low level
low positions in the Great Plains. A higher chance of severe storms
during this time period has been highlighted by SPC several days in
advance. The combination of steep mid-level lapse rates, over 1000
Joules/km of CAPE, sufficient surface to 6km shear (above 30kts),
and helicity values over 150 m2/s2 some areas creates the danger for
hazardous conditions. A limited threat for storms has already been
highlighted in our HWO. Before sunrise storms are expected to push
out to the southeast and lingering rain showers will prevail. Skies
are expected to clear out Sunday morning in the Northern Delta,
however clouds and scattered rain showers to our southeast may stick
around as the front stalls near the coast. Monday afternoon into
Tuesday high pressure to our northeast will building and light rain
showers will continue to push towards the coast.

The middle of next week another surface low will develop over
Oklahoma and scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop Tuesday evening into Thursday. If you are
looking for a break from rain, the later of next week looks pleasant
as a strong surface high develops in Central Canada. Cooler
temperatures may once again make an appearance.  /SKH/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR cigs with -RA were observed at GLH at 18Z while VFR conds
were observed elsewhere. MVFR cigs wl remain psbl this aftn at
GLH-GWO with -SHRA and vcty TSRA activity wl affect HKS and JAN
this aftn as well. Rain wl become more confined to the nw tonight
while cigs gradually lower to MVFR then IFR areawide by 10Z. IFR
cigs wl be slow to improve Thu becoming MVFR areawide by 17Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  83  64  78 /  72  50  14  24
Meridian      63  83  61  79 /  44  16  13  19
Vicksburg     63  80  65  79 /  91  75  19  26
Hattiesburg   65  83  62  79 /  27  12  15  24
Natchez       67  81  66  79 /  79  69  18  26
Greenville    55  69  63  76 / 100  92  24  29
Greenwood     62  77  64  77 /  95  80  20  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ018-019-034-
     035-040-041.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

12/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-034-221630-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-Sunflower-Washington-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

Heavy rain and thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding and
additional river flooding are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain a possibility into
Thursday morning.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
a few tornadoes are possible across the region late Saturday
afternoon through early Sunday morning. This potential weather
event is still several days away and the timing and impacts will
likely be adjusted in later forecasts.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
night.

MSZ028>033-038-039-045-046-050>052-055>058-061>066-072>074-221630-
Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-
Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-
Clarke-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
a few tornadoes are possible across the region late Saturday
afternoon through early Sunday morning. This potential weather
event is still several days away and the timing and impacts will
likely be adjusted in later forecasts.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
night.

LAZ008-009-MSZ035-040-041-221630-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

Heavy rain and thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding and
additional river flooding are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...remainder of today

Isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts
are possible this afternoon. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain a possibility into
Thursday morning.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
a few tornadoes are possible across the region late Saturday
afternoon through early Sunday morning. This potential weather
event is still several days away and the timing and impacts will
likely be adjusted in later forecasts.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today and Saturday night.

LAZ015-016-023-221630-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

Heavy rain and thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding and
additional river flooding are expected this afternoon and tonight.
Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...remainder of today

Severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, tornadoes
and small hail are possible through this afternoon.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain a possibility into
Thursday morning.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

MSZ036-042-047-053-221630-
Holmes-Yazoo-Warren-Claiborne-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

Heavy rain and thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding and
additional river flooding are possible this afternoon and
tonight. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with locally higher amounts possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...remainder of today

Isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts
are possible this afternoon. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
a few tornadoes are possible across the region late Saturday
afternoon through early Sunday morning. This potential weather
event is still several days away and the timing and impacts will
likely be adjusted in later forecasts.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today and Saturday night.

MSZ037-043-044-048-049-054-059-060-221630-
Attala-Madison MS-Leake-Hinds-Rankin-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...remainder of today

Isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts
are possible this afternoon. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

LAZ024-025-221630-
Catahoula-Tensas-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

Heavy rain and thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding and
additional river flooding are possible this afternoon and
tonight. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with locally higher amounts possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...remainder of today

Severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, tornadoes
and small hail are possible through this afternoon.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

MSZ025>027-221630-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...remainder of today through Tonight

Heavy rain and thunderstorms resulting in flash flooding and
additional river flooding are possible this afternoon and
tonight. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected,
with locally higher amounts possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will remain a possibility into
Thursday morning.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
a few tornadoes are possible across the region late Saturday
afternoon through early Sunday morning. This potential weather
event is still several days away and the timing and impacts will
likely be adjusted in later forecasts.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Saturday
night.

LAZ026-221630-
Concordia-
1021 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...remainder of today

Severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, tornadoes
and small hail are possible through this afternoon.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

1

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
425 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

MSZ048-212300-
Hinds MS-
425 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HINDS COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CST...

At 425 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Dry Grove, or 12 miles west of Byram, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Raymond around 435 PM CST.
  Jackson around 440 PM CST.
  Bolton around 445 PM CST.
  Clinton around 450 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Learned.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 9044 3217 9059 3243 9045 3233 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 209DEG 30KT 3218 9047

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
427 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

MSZ054-212300-
Copiah MS-
427 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN COPIAH COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CST...

At 426 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Barlow, or 11 miles west of Hazlehurst, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Glancy around 430 PM CST.
  Hazlehurst around 440 PM CST.
  Dentville around 445 PM CST.
  Gallman around 450 PM CST.
  Crystal Springs around 455 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3177 9071 3205 9054 3205 9051 3195 9035
      3170 9054 3170 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 209DEG 30KT 3181 9057

TW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
454 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

MSZ048-049-054-212330-
Copiah MS-Hinds MS-Rankin MS-
454 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN RANKIN...SOUTHEASTERN
HINDS AND NORTH CENTRAL COPIAH COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CST...

At 453 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Crystal Springs, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Terry around 505 PM CST.
  Jackson and Byram around 515 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 9040 3199 9053 3227 9030 3216 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 216DEG 34KT 3201 9041

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
513 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

MSZ027-028-036-037-220000-
Carroll MS-Attala MS-Montgomery MS-Holmes MS-
513 PM CST WED FEB 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HOLMES...
SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...NORTHERN ATTALA AND SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

At 513 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Durant, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Possumneck around 520 PM CST.
  Hesterville around 530 PM CST.
  Poplar Creek around 540 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mccool and West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3346 8951 3346 8938 3345 8940 3343 8942
      3344 8944 3343 8945 3329 8945 3329 8932
      3318 8932 3300 8991 3318 9005 3356 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 236DEG 49KT 3311 8989

BYB