Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Jackson, MS

232 
WWUS54 KJAN 122043
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
343 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSC049-121-122115-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0345.000000T0000Z-180812T2115Z/
Rankin MS-Hinds MS-
343 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL RANKIN AND EAST CENTRAL HINDS COUNTIES...

At 342 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Flowood, and is
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Pearl and Flowood around 415 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 9012 3234 9025 3239 9020 3238 9010
      3233 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 280DEG 3KT 3235 9015 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

22

985 
WWUS54 KJAN 122112
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
412 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSC049-121-122122-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0345.000000T0000Z-180812T2115Z/
Rankin MS-Hinds MS-
412 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL RANKIN AND EAST
CENTRAL HINDS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3224 9012 3234 9025 3239 9020 3238 9010
      3233 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 313DEG 3KT 3233 9013 

$$

22

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR flight categories are prevailing at all TAF sites this
afternoon and should mostly continue that way through the next 24
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to
develop across the region this afternoon and coverage should
increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening
hours. Flight categories could briefly be reduced to MVFR/IFR
status if convection is observed within a site's respected
aerodrome. Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning
strikes will all be possible with storms today. These storms
should dissipate through the evening. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A large swath of rain is located just to our west across portions
of central Louisiana. This is associated with an area of ascent
that will slowly move east today and allow for additional showers
and storms to overspread the region. CAM guidance suggests greater
coverage today than was the case yesterday but activity is getting
a slow start. This has allowed temperatures to warm well into the
mid 80s across much of the region, even nearing forecast highs for
some locations in the west. That being said, I went ahead and
raised high temperatures for today in these locations. Otherwise,
things seem to be on track for today. There remains potential for
any storm that develops to become strong to severe with gusty
winds being the main concern given ample lapse rates, moisture and
instability present across the region. /28/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight...The forecast area remains stuck between
troughing aloft to the northeast, and a slowly retrograding upper
low over the southern plains.  While ridging tries to build into the
region over the next 24 hours, another area of ascent is progged to
lift northeast into the forecast area today from the southwest.
This, coupled with high topping out from the upper 80s to middle 90s
in this moist airmass, will result in scattered showers and storms
developing across the CWA yet again this afternoon.  Although
convection is expected to be more widespread today, compared to
Saturday, the better rain chances currently look to reside along and
west of the Interstate 55 corridor.

Once again, a few strong storms can't be ruled out, with an isolated
storm perhaps reaching severe limits, this afternoon.  Gusty winds
will be possible with these storms.  Still, due to the overall lack
of coverage of such storms, I'll keep the HWO clear today.  With the
continued moist airmass, heavy rain will be likely, along with
frequent lightning strikes.  This activity will linger into the
early evening hours, before dissipating by midnight.

An isolated shower is possible during the overnight hours tonight.
However, quiet conditions are expected across the forecast area
overnight and into early Monday morning.  Under partly cloudy skies,
lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. /19/

Monday into next weekend...

An active period of weather will extend through the upcoming
workweek and into next weekend. At the beginning of the period,
the ArkLaMiss will be positioned between two closed upper lows;
one over the Southern Plains and another in the Ohio Valley. Some
upper level ridging will begin to increase in the MS Valley
between these two features, while a mid level ridge builds along
the Gulf Coast. This will help to keep the region mostly dry and
warm through Tuesday. The best chances of precip during the early
week period will be on Monday as a once stagnant weak surface
boundary progresses from south to north. By Tuesday, Pwats will
have dropped by .5", from 2" to 1.5", as the ridging gets
stronger. Highs will push into the mid 90's. By Wednesday, the
once closed low over the southern Plains will have merged with the
parent upper level westerly flow pattern, slowly deamplfying as
it progresses towards the MS VAlley. Low level southerly flow will
begin to increase in the ArkLaMiss ahead of this approaching
system, pulling warmer, more moist air into the region from the
Gulf. Confidence in stressful heat conditions developing on
Wednesday continues to increase as highs are expected to creep up
into the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints reach the low to mid 70s.
Still will hold off on including heat in the HWO due to
uncertainties in regards to the timing and range of precipitation
associated with the aforementioned approaching disturbance.

A series of disturbances embedded within the upper flow pattern
will begin to drag across the MS River Valley as we get into the
late week period. This will result in several stormy periods
during this time frame. Storms and rain should aid in keeping
temperatures at bay during late week and into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  71  89  72 /  48  42  27  13
Meridian      94  72  91  72 /  33  30  35  19
Vicksburg     94  72  91  72 /  52  37  25  13
Hattiesburg   93  72  91  72 /  37  33  25  13
Natchez       92  71  91  72 /  52  34  17  12
Greenville    93  71  87  71 /  49  42  32  16
Greenwood     94  72  89  71 /  42  38  36  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
229 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
229 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSZ037-122000-
Attala MS-
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ATTALA COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

At 230 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Kosciusko. This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Smyrna around 300 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8948 3299 8964 3310 8962 3309 8943
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 277DEG 2KT 3304 8958

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSZ033-122030-
Oktibbeha MS-
239 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OKTIBBEHA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

At 239 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Starkville, moving west at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Longview around 310 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3350 8879 3338 8879 3336 8896 3354 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 090DEG 5KT 3344 8887

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSZ064-065-122030-
Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON AND NORTH
CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 244 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Clem, or 11 miles northwest of Collins. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lone Star around 325 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3171 8981 3177 8971 3169 8956 3157 8971
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 313DEG 3KT 3170 8973

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
318 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSZ025-027-122115-
Carroll MS-Leflore MS-
318 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LEFLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Sidon, or near Greenwood. This storm was nearly stationary.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sidon around 355 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 9007 3333 9018 3334 9019 3341 9032
      3350 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 313DEG 3KT 3344 9023

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             1 SSE KOSCIUSKO         33.04N 89.58W
08/12/2018  E0.75 INCH       ATTALA             MS   PUBLIC

            DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            KOSCIUSKO.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW STARKVILLE         33.43N 88.85W
08/12/2018  M47 MPH          OKTIBBEHA          MS   ASOS

            MEASURED AT GEORGE M BRYAN AIRPORT IN
            STARKVILLE.

&&

TW