Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
346 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow:

A good coverage of showers and storms are being seen on area radars
this afternoon, both across the northern and southwest parts of the
forecast area. Not as much convection is occurring across the
central portions but expected more to develop across these locations
through the remainder of the afternoon. Given good lapse rates,
ample moisture and plenty of instability, these storms could become
strong with gusty winds being the main concern along with lightning
and heavy downpours. Storms will diminish through the evening hours,
leading to another mild night with overnight low temperatures
reaching the lower 70s.

Monday will be similar to today as the region remains between the
trough in the east and the upper low across north central Texas. As
daytime heating occurs, additional showers and storms will develop.
The best chances for rain look to be more in the north with the
activity tomorrow but there is potential across the forecast area.
Highs will once again reach into the lower 90s. /28/

Monday night through next weekend (Saturday):

Expect warm, more humid & lessening rain chances in the early-mid
week before anomalous period of unsettled & potentially organized
convection possible late week & into next weekend.

At the surface & aloft, expect ridging & drier air to build in,
with PWs falling around an inch & a half to an inch & three
quarters. In addition, with strong ridging & subsidence building
in, we should be able to limit overall scope of convection. These
will become more diurnal & focused in the northeast on Tuesday as
the trough & stationary boundary lifts to the north into the mid-
Mississippi Valley. In addition, moisture should lift northward
along the coast & into the I-59 corridor which will help isolated-
scattered coverage across the southeast on Wednesday. Right now it
seems most shear is relaxing & building east, but couldn't rule
out a couple stronger cells east of I-55 on Tuesday. As the ridge
axis builds in Tuesday & gradually flattens on Wednesday, this
will lead to better eventual southerly return flow of better
moisture by mid-week. Due to us drying out early-mid week, lows
should be able to potentially fall into the upper 60s but for sure
overall into the low 70s areawide. Due to drier low-mid level
air, we should be able to mix out dewpoints in the afternoon into
the upper 60s at times, helping limit heat issues. However, with
increasing low level thermal heat, we should still be able to get
into the mid-90s, even with some isolated convection around. In
addition, with increasing heat & humidity, heat stress will
gradually rise early-mid week (i.e. Tuesday-Thursday). There
could be some potential for some issues around, but will hold off
mentioning because it's very marginal & near the hottest portion
of the year & better rain & storm chances moving in late week on
Thursday. Regardless, couldn't rule out some mention of it being
introduced in a later package.

As the trough/shortwave phases over the southern Plains & ejects
northeast into the Ohio Valley & Great Lakes, we should be able to
get better moisture return & PWs closer to 2+ inches. This will
help drive an anomalous trough & cold front move down into the
Mississippi Valley. Expect northwest flow to build back in, with
scattered-numerous rain & storms possible by late week & through
the weekend, especially across the Highway 82 & Highway 45
corridors. Due to stronger low-mid level northwest flow (i.e. 0-2
& 0-3km flow around 10-20kts), some stronger more organized
convection is possible into the weekend. With global ensemble
consensus in good agreement on the synoptic pattern & CIPS
analogs showing probabilities of some severe storms, definitely
can't rule out some strong-severe storms into next weekend,
especially more so Friday & into next weekend. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR flight categories are prevailing at all TAF sites this
afternoon and should mostly continue that way through the next 24
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to
develop across the region this afternoon and coverage should
increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening
hours. Flight categories could briefly be reduced to MVFR/IFR
status if convection is observed within a site's respected
aerodrome. Gusty winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning
strikes will all be possible with storms today. These storms
should dissipate through the evening. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  92  71  94 /  28  25  13  15
Meridian      72  92  72  94 /  30  35  16  24
Vicksburg     72  92  71  94 /  28  22  10  12
Hattiesburg   73  91  72  94 /  29  28  16  31
Natchez       71  93  71  93 /  28  22   9  13
Greenville    72  92  71  91 /  31  28  13  15
Greenwood     72  92  71  92 /  31  35  14  16

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

28/DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
229 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
229 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE COLUMBUS          33.52N 88.33W
08/12/2018                   LOWNDES            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN THE 800 BLOCK OF TABERNACLE RD.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
503 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSZ045-051-122300-
Newton MS-Neshoba MS-
503 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHERN
NESHOBA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 503 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Dixon, or 9 miles southwest of Philadelphia, moving east at 20
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Neshoba around 520 PM CDT.
  Bethsaida around 535 PM CDT.
  House around 545 PM CDT.
  Herbert Springs around 600 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Tucker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 8928 3272 8928 3271 8892 3251 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 286DEG 16KT 3268 8922

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
520 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW FLOWOOD            32.37N 90.14W
08/12/2018                   HINDS              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE INCHES OF WATER FLOODING THE
            INTERSECTION OF OLD CANTON RD AND RIDGEWOOD
            RD. PICTURE RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
525 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSZ051-122315-
Newton MS-
525 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Prospect, moving north at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Prospect around 540 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3245 8917 3245 8930 3257 8931 3257 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 192DEG 8KT 3251 8923

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
527 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

MSZ046-122315-
Kemper MS-
527 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL KEMPER COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 527 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near De Kalb, or 11 miles east of Preston, moving northeast at 10
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Kemper County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3279 8855 3280 8876 3293 8871 3293 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 225DEG 8KT 3285 8864

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
538 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ENE JACKSON           32.33N 90.18W
08/12/2018                   HINDS              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AROUND JACKSON WITH
            MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES.

&&

TW