Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
251 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Tuesday: The primary focus will be for a summer like
pattern with diurnal convection through the period. Scattered
afternoon convection will start to diminish once we beging to lose
the heat of the day for this evening. Models continue to indicate
light flow through the atmospheric column with pwats above 1.5
inches along with instability. This will translate to slow moving
storms with locally heavy rainfall with ponding of roadways.
Expect the convection to gradually diminish this evening. For
Tuesday convection will build in coverage as we go into the heat
of the day. Any storms that do develop will build over areas where
outflow boundaries were left by todays storms. Expecting
scattered coverage during the afternoon. Not seeing any signs of
any organized development, so will keep the HWO clear for now.
Lows for tonight will be in the middle 60s to the lower 70s. Highs
for Tuesday will be from the middle 80s to the lower 90s./17/

Tuesday night through Sunday: The mid level flow pattern will be rather
weak and unsettled at the beginning of the period. Mid level ridging
off the east coast and over the Plains will eventually lead to
broad trough development over the Gulf Coastal states and the
Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. A steady influx of high
PW air from the southeast will lead to increasing coverages of
diurnal convection each day, especially over the south. This will
also lead to earlier onsets of convection and in turn lower
maximums.

Model solutions differ somewhat moving into the weekend. While the GFS
keeps a broad surface low over the southern Gulf, the ECMWF and
Canadian strengthen the low and move it briskly toward the north
central Gulf Coast Saturday. Despite the variance in solutions,
they do agree that an increase in convection will be the trend
with heavy rainfall chances increasing as well from the south by
the weekend./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR flight categories expected to prevail through the course of
the day. During the afternoon, another round of showers and
storms will be possible across the region, lingering a few hours
into tonight. This will again bring about a brief reduction to
both ceilings and visibiltiies, thus reducing flight categories
MVFR/IFR if observed on-station. Light to calming winds this
morning, will give way to winds generally between 3-8 knots from
the east by late morning./17/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  89  69  89 /  27  45  20  32
Meridian      67  89  67  88 /  27  40  24  37
Vicksburg     69  90  70  89 /  27  44  20  31
Hattiesburg   67  89  67  89 /  28  54  28  51
Natchez       69  89  69  88 /  28  47  21  46
Greenville    70  88  71  88 /  30  41  15  26
Greenwood     69  89  70  89 /  27  37  16  25

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
209 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
221915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
209 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

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   @NWSJacksonMS
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1052 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE SATARTIA           32.64N 90.48W
05/20/2018                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON 433W NEAR THE TRI COMMUNITY
            FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

CW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
302 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

MSZ048-212045-
Hinds MS-
302 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HINDS COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Dry Grove, or 12 miles west of Byram, moving south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Dry Grove around 315 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Learned.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 9059 3225 9038 3206 9034 3206 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 354DEG 14KT 3218 9048

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
315 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

MSZ048-049-212100-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-
315 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN RANKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 315 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Byram, moving north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Richland around 330 PM CDT.
  Jackson around 335 PM CDT.
  Clinton around 400 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3215 9011 3213 9033 3239 9038 3240 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 175DEG 7KT 3220 9023

DB