Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Jackson, MS

002 
WWUS54 KJAN 210122
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
822 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MSC149-210131-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-180521T0145Z/
Warren MS-
822 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits. The warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3230 9097 3229 9095 3229 9093 3233 9090
      3234 9091 3234 9090 3236 9088 3244 9075
      3227 9072 3218 9085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 149DEG 13KT 3237 9084 

$$

7

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
633 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Isold to Sct TSRA wl cont in vcty of most TAF sites through 03Z
before dissipating. Away from TSRA activity, VFR conds wl cont
until after 09Z when MVFR cigs and vsbys wl be psbl over east MS.
Cigs should improve to VFR areawide by 16Z. Sct to numerous TSRA
activity is expected to develop Mon aftn and last into the
evening. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Monday: Convection has been slow to materialize this
afternoon, but has finally initialized in the high 0-3km theta-e
zone from northeast LA into north central MS. The HRRR is
indicating that convection will continue to fire in this zone as
it spreads to the southeast with time. Though overall convection
will begin winding down during the evening, intersecting cold pool
boundaries will keep keep some convection continuing until around
midnight.

Weak mid level ridge will continue to break down during this time
period as cold core system over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
is absorbed by more prominent westerlies to the immediate west of
the forecast area. The resulting cool air aloft will lead to more
in the way of scattered convection Monday given expected
temps/dewpoints. Weak mid and and deep layer shear vectors
suggest slow storm movements which will lead to very localized
heavy rainfall as PWs rise to above 1.75 inches. Despite the cool
air aloft, deeper moisture looks to prevent lapse rates from
becoming too steep, keeping strong/severe potential down a
bit./26/

Monday night through Saturday: The primary focus will be for a
summer like pattern with diurnal convection through the period.
There will be some ridging followed by some troughiness with weak
flow over the forecast area through the period. Pwats will range
from 1.4 to around 1.7 inches combined with daytime heating for
scattered daytime convection, which will be followed by isolated
convection during the evening as we lose the heat of the day.
This will change some as we start to get a better inflow of moisture
for Friday night through Saturday. With all this instability we
could have some microburst potential with an isolated severe storm
with gusty winds that can not be ruled out for each day along with
some brief downpours. Where the convection develops will depend of
leftover outflow boundaries from the previous day combined with weak
disturbances that will track across the region during the heat of
the day. Daily highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
Heat indices will creep up to the upper 90s to around 100 on
Wednesday and Thursday. Nightly lows will be around the middle 60s
to the lower 70s./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  86  68  90 /  44  59  22  42
Meridian      67  85  66  89 /  44  47  23  42
Vicksburg     69  88  68  91 /  35  64  23  45
Hattiesburg   68  86  67  90 /  42  55  26  52
Natchez       68  88  68  90 /  28  64  24  42
Greenville    70  88  70  89 /  39  65  22  43
Greenwood     69  87  68  90 /  47  56  19  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

17/22/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
150 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211900-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
150 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible through early
evening across the region. The main risk will be damaging wind
gusts although some hail will also be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW ACKERMAN          33.30N 89.18W
05/20/2018                   CHOCTAW            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 15 AT S LOUISVILLE ST.

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
551 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MSZ018-202315-
Bolivar MS-
551 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BOLIVAR COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM CDT...

At 550 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Rosedale, moving north at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Rosedale around 615 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Beulah and Pace.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 9086 3372 9084 3372 9106 3378 9106
      3376 9103 3376 9101 3378 9099 3379 9099
      3380 9100 3381 9102 3382 9105 3386 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 179DEG 9KT 3380 9095

7

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MSZ019-025-210000-
Leflore MS-Sunflower MS-
625 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL SUNFLOWER AND
NORTHWESTERN LEFLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Sunnyside, or 10 miles southeast of Ruleville, moving northwest
at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Sunflower and northwestern Leflore Counties, including the following
locations... Schlater and Doddsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 9024 3352 9036 3364 9055 3378 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 130DEG 23KT 3366 9038

7

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
700 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MSZ019-210030-
Sunflower MS-
700 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL SUNFLOWER COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Shaw, moving north at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Sunflower County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3356 9064 3353 9076 3361 9076 3362 9075
      3362 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 170DEG 5KT 3359 9074

7

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
715 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MSZ055-210045-
Simpson MS-
715 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SIMPSON COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Mendenhall, moving north at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Simpson County, including the following locations... D'Lo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 8977 3189 8996 3200 8994 3199 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 181DEG 7KT 3195 8987

7

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
745 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

MSZ049-210115-
Rankin MS-
745 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 745 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Johns, or 12 miles southeast of Brandon, moving west at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Rankin
County, including the following locations... Puckett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8973 3205 8977 3213 8995 3225 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 106DEG 7KT 3216 8984

7