River Flood Warning 84, NWS Jackson, MS

241 
WGUS84 KJAN 240255
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
955 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018




...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Yalobusha At Whaley affecting Carroll and Leflore Counties 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
all rivers  except for those in the Tombigbee River System which 
includes Tibbee Creek,  Luxapallila Creek, Noxubee River,and the 
Tombigbee River mainstem where a routine of 48 hours of additional 
rainfall is used.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC015-083-250855-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0084.180425T0000Z-180425T1800Z/
/YWGM6.1.ER.180425T0000Z.180425T0000Z.180425T0600Z.NO/
955 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Yalobusha At Whaley
* from Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 9:00 PM Monday the stage was 20.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Lowland flooding is occurring near the 
  river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Tue   Wed   Thu Crest Time  Date

Yalobusha River
Whaley         21  20.5 Mon 09 PM  20.8  20.8  20.1  21.0 07 PM 04/24


&&


LAT...LON 3362 9015 3375 9015 3383 8989 3380 8984
      3368 9006 3354 9014             



$$

TWP/NF

219 
WGUS84 KJAN 241541
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
ISSUED BY National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1041 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers 
in Mississippi...
 
  Yalobusha At Whaley affecting Carroll and Leflore Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC015-083-241611-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-180425T1800Z/
/YWGM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1041 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Yalobusha At Whaley, Mississippi.
* At 10:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 20.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 21 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 20.5 feet
  during yesterday, Monday evening.  The river will fall to 20.0 feet 
  by Wednesday morning.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Yalobusha River
Whaley         21  20.5 Tue 10 AM  20.0  19.7  19.5


&&


LAT...LON 3362 9015 3375 9015 3383 8989 3380 8984
      3368 9006 3354 9014             


$$

VIII/KSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
632 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
Overall main concern during this forecast period is low stratus
and ceilings. Expect scattered to broken low stratus to exist
through the period and only briefly lifting to VFR by this
afternoon. Most TAF sites are near MVFR this morning, with some
brief IFR ceilings occurring previously. Stratus may lift
altogether at some sites to near VFR by around 23/21-00Z, while
other areas MVFR ceilings may linger through the period. In
addition, some showers are possible at GLH & GWO in this period
and lasting through around 24/02Z while a little later at GTR
through around 24/05Z. Can't rule out some just north of HKS, JAN
and MEI but not enough confidence to introduce VCSH at these
sites. Expect westerly winds to remain around 5-10 mph, with brief
higher gusts, from the west through the period and weakening
tonight. Expect more stratus to build back in by tomorrow morning,
around 24/06-09Z, at all TAF sites, with MVFR to at times IFR
ceilings. Also some patchy fog and MVFR visibilities can not be
ruled out, especially at HBG around this time. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight: Expect a cooler, dreary and cloudy afternoon
today. As a cold core upper level low (per GOES-16 water vapor
imagery) spins over the mid-South, expect cold air advection and
wrap around moisture to remain locked in the area through the
afternoon. Due to mid-level ridging over the mid-Atlantic states
and Atlantic seaboard, expect this upper low to remain mostly
parked over the region through the afternoon-evening and only very
slowly drift to the east. This will help keep widespread low
stratus and some light rain/showers and drizzle through the
region. High temperatures will be much cooler, some 5-10 degrees
below normal. Expect the light rain chances to slowly increase as
wrap around moisture (PWs close to an inch) swings southeast
around through mid-afternoon. This could bring some isolated to
scattered light rain showers at least along and north of I-20
through the evening.

As this upper trough axis slowly drifts east through the mid-South
and Tennessee and northern Alabama, expect the wrap around moisture
to only slowly pull off to the east. This will help low stratus to
linger and light rain chances to slowly pull east-northeast through
the night, especially after midnight. Due to this, expect
temperatures to stay up near normal in the low-mid 50s areawide.
There could be some patchy fog through the region, especially if the
light rain/drizzle can linger well into the night. However, with
widespread clouds, thinking it will be patchy at most and most areas
may struggle to radiate enough, unless some low stratus builds down
into some more widespread fog. /DC/

Tuesday through Sunday: Building mid level longwave ridge over the
Intermountain West and troughiness over the eastern two-thirds will
set the stage for an unsettled regime over the forecast area through
much of the period.

Departing system over the TN valley Tuesday will keep light rain
chances in the northeast early, with improving conditions by evening
as shortwave ridging moves into the area. The fair weather will be
brief, though, as the next shortwave approaches by Wednesday
afternoon. The precipitation with this system looks to be mainly
in the form of showers initially as the lack of any low level
return flow or instability aloft reduces the deep convective
potential.

As the core of the system drops through the forecast area during max
heating Thursday, deeper convective potential will exist with
vertical totals in the mid 20s and CAPEs nearing 1000 J/kg. Would
not be surprised to see a few strong storms as deep layer shear
increases to near 50 knots. Though this system will rapidly push
east during the evening, the next system will impact the area
Friday with a similar convective potential as the system core
passes nearby.

The longwave ridge will move out of the Rockies and into the Plains
by Saturday. This will bring an end to the succession of systems up
to this point and provide generally dry and warmer conditions
through the end of the period./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       69  54  72  53 /  14  17   9   1
Meridian      70  53  71  53 /  15  12  13   2
Vicksburg     70  55  73  53 /  14  15   7   1
Hattiesburg   74  55  74  54 /   2   6  10   2
Natchez       72  55  74  54 /   4   6   7   1
Greenville    67  54  71  53 /  42  20   9   1
Greenwood     67  53  70  53 /  37  33  12   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
355 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
240900-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
355 AM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

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