River Flood Warning 78, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
715 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion. Also made a few minor
adjustments to short-term forecast elements through tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF discussion:
The line of heavier showers and thunderstorms is exiting the
forecast area, with only light to moderate rain persisting at some
TAF sites through the early tonight. The last of the rain should
depart all TAF sites by 12Z Sunday. Expect improving ceilings and
visibility from west to east as the rain and low clouds move east.
Another deck of stratus is expected to move in from the northwest
during the day on Sunday, with ceilings ranging from MVFR to VFR.
Breezy west-northwest winds at all TAF sites by 15Z Sunday and
lasting through 00Z Monday. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through tonight:

Overall the strong cold front is quickly moving through the region
and rainfall is slowly pushing into eastern Mississippi. As
mentioned before, increasing upper divergence and forcing will help
showers to redevelop in the wake of the storms today. There might be
enough elevated CAPE/MAUL to help some pockets of isolated thunder
to develop. Can't rule out some localized flash flooding, especially
across the east and south where light-moderate rain will linger or
over any area that had quite a bit overnight and more moderate rain
showers move back over through this evening.

As the trough axis swings through and strong cold air advection
moves in tonight, expect any showers, rain chances & clouds to
quickly clear from west to east overnight. This will help strong
ridging build in and much drier air to filter in. Dewpoints will
fall into mid-upper 30s and PWs will fall less than half an inch
overnight. Due to some lingering clouds and strong pressure
gradient/winds overnight, lows will only fall into the upper 30s in
the ArkLaMiss Delta to low-mid 40s (~8-15 degrees below normal).

Tomorrow (Sunday) through next Friday:

Overall much quieter period is in store as high pressure moves in.
Expect a much cooler day on Sunday with high pressure slowly
filtering in from the northwest. This will lead to much drier
conditions, but Sunday should be much cooler. Due to that, we should
only top out in the mid 50s-low 60s, some 15-20 degrees below normal
and potentially reaching the top 5 coolest high temperatures. There
potentially could be enough dry air & clear skies for us to fall
into the low-mid 30s. This would normally be sufficient for frost
formation. However, due to continued pressure gradient, decided to
remove the patchy frost. If the gradient can weaken and the winds
lighten up, may have to think about frost potential.

As the strong trough builds east into early-mid week, expect strong
surface & mid level ridging to build in from the west. This will
lead to increasing warmth as low-level thermal profiles quickly
warm. Due to dry air and some winds around, we should be able to
mix out well, with temperatures warming into the low-mid 60s or so
on Monday then well into the mid-upper 70s through mid-week
(Tuesday- Thursday). We should have a brief light rain chances
around mid-week (Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning) due to a
weak cold front & increase in moisture (PWs around an inch to an
inch and a quarter) moving through the area. This will help
increase rain chances only around slight chances with increasing
clouds. As the trough digs to our northeast & weak frontal
boundary moves through by Thursday morning, expect surface ridging
& mid level to build in the wake with decreasing rain chances &
clearing clouds. Due to slightly cooler thermal profiles, expect
temperatures to be slightly cooler but still near normals as we go
into late week. All eyes will begin focus on the deep longwave
trough and strong low pressure system over the Rockies. This will
eventually take shape and head towards our area by next weekend.
For now, expect increasing clouds later on Friday as moisture
slowly builds in from the west. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  60  37  66 /  83   8   1   1
Meridian      45  59  37  66 /  95   8   1   2
Vicksburg     41  60  38  66 /  52   8   1   1
Hattiesburg   44  63  38  69 /  93   8   0   0
Natchez       41  59  37  68 /  50   7   0   0
Greenville    40  58  37  63 /  35   8   1   1
Greenwood     40  56  36  61 /  72   8   1   1

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

NF/DC

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     10 ESE STURGIS          33.27N 88.90W
04/14/2018                   WINSTON            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWNED ACROSS LOAKFOMA RD NEAR MS HWY
            25.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1114 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 ENE MERIDIAN STATION  32.59N 88.49W
04/14/2018                   KEMPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE ROOF OF A MOBILE HOME WAS DAMAGED ON OLD
            ROCK RD.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     TORNADO          1 N FLOWOOD             32.33N 90.11W
04/14/2018                   RANKIN             MS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            NWS SURVEY TEAM FOUND AN EF1 TORNADO WITH
            MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90MPH, PATH LENGTH OF 6.15
            MILES AND PATH WIDTH OF 50 YDS. THIS TORNADO
            BEGAN NEAR JACKSON PREPARATORY SCHOOL ALONG
            LAKELAND DRIVE AND TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST
            JUST NORTH OF THE LAKELAND DRIVE. MOST OF
            THE DAMAGE WAS LIMITED TO TREES WITH THE
            MOST SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE INVOLVING
            SNAPPED AND UPROOTED HARDWOOD TREES. THERE
            WAS SCATTERED MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE,
            MAINLY TO ROOFS, AS LARGE LIMBS AND TREES
            FELL UPON RESIDENCES. A FEW BUSINESSES ALSO
            SUSTAINED MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DUE
            DIRECTLY TO WINDS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            GRANTS FERRY ROAD AND LAKELAND DRIVE. ALONG
            A PORTION OF THE TORNADO'S PATH THROUGH
            FLOWOOD AND MILLCREEK COMMUNITIES THE TRACK
            SHOWED EVIDENCE OF SKIPPING AND PRODUCING
            VERY LIMITED DAMAGE.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
616 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N PURVIS              31.19N 89.41W
04/14/2018                   LAMAR              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE WAS DOWNED ONTO POWER LINES ALONG
            MCCARTER CIR.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
718 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E MER ROUGE           32.77N 91.71W
04/14/2018                   MOREHOUSE          LA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED AND A BUILDING WAS DAMAGED
            ALONG RUSH HARRISON RD.

&&

DL

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