Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2018
River Flood Warning 77, NWS Jackson, MS
NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Apr 14, 2018, 7:44 PM CDT for Leake County, Mississippi. It took effect at Apr 15, 2018, 1:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 45 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 14, 2018, 7:44 PM CDT (00:44 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 15, 2018, 1:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Apr 17, 2018, 10:28 AM CDT
- In force
- 45 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Jackson, MS
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Leake County, MS
The radar
The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Tuscolameta Creek at Walnut Grove (WTGM6).
- Action stage
- 24 ft
- Minor stage
- 25 ft
- Moderate stage
- 31.5 ft
- Major stage
- 33 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02483000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
402
WGUS44 KJAN 150044
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
744 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018
...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Mississippi...
Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Please note that forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has
occurred along with forecast rainfall for the next 24 hours. Rainfall
amounts greater than forecast may take the rivers higher.
Additional information is available at:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC079-160600-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0077.180415T1800Z-180416T0600Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180415T1800Z.180415T1800Z.180415T1800Z.NO/
744 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018
The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* from Sunday afternoon to late Sunday night.
* At 7:00 PM Saturday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early
tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Agricultural land and low areas along and
near the river begin to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Sun Mon Tue Crest Time Date
Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove 25 18.8 Sat 07 PM 24.9 22.2 13.7 25.0 01 PM 04/15
&&
LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
3258 8953 3263 8960
$$5 follow-up statements
473
WGUS84 KJAN 151536
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1036 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County
Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County
Pearl River Near Carthage affecting Leake County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
all rivers except for those in the Tombigbee River System which
includes Tibbee Creek, Luxapallila Creek, Noxubee River,and the
Tombigbee River mainstem where a routine of 48 hours of additional
rainfall is used.
Additional information is available at:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC099-162136-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0062.180416T0800Z-180420T0000Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180416T0800Z.180417T1200Z.180419T1200Z.NO/
1036 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* from late tonight to Thursday evening.
* At 9:45 AM Sunday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early tomorrow and
will continue to rise to near 13.5 feet Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside
Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water begins to affect Burnside Lake Water
Park.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia 13 12.3 Sun 10 AM 13.2 13.5 13.3 13.5 07 AM 04/17
&&
LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
3284 8892 3277 8918
$$
MSC079-162135-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0064.180420T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.180420T1200Z.180420T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1036 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pearl River Near Carthage
* from Friday morning until further notice.
* At 9:45 AM Sunday the stage was 15.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday
morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding of low areas along
and near the river is occurring.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Upper Pearl River
Carthage 17 15.2 Sun 10 AM 15.2 15.4 16.4 17.0 07 AM 04/20
&&
LAT...LON 3271 8964 3277 8956 3280 8951 3268 8946
3266 8952 3263 8960
$$
MSC079-162135-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0077.180416T1200Z-180417T0000Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180416T1200Z.180416T1200Z.180416T1200Z.NO/
1036 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Monday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* from Monday morning to Monday evening.
* At 10:00 AM Sunday the stage was 24.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Agricultural land and low areas along and
near the river begin to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove 25 24.2 Sun 10 AM 25.0 21.1 15.2 25.0 07 AM 04/16
&&
LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
3258 8953 3263 8960
$$580
WGUS84 KJAN 160138
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...
Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County
Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County
Pearl River Near Monticello affecting Lawrence County
Pearl River Near Columbia affecting Marion County
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi..
Pearl River Near Carthage affecting Leake County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
all rivers except for those in the Tombigbee River System which
includes Tibbee Creek, Luxapallila Creek, Noxubee River,and the
Tombigbee River mainstem where a routine of 48 hours of additional
rainfall is used.
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC099-170738-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0062.180416T2000Z-180420T0600Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180416T2000Z.180417T1200Z.180419T1800Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* From Monday afternoon to late Thursday night.
* At 7:45 PM Sunday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow afternoon
and will continue to rise to near 13.5 feet Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside
Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water begins to affect Burnside Lake Water
Park.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia 13 12.4 Sun 08 PM 12.6 13.5 13.3 13.5 07 AM 04/17
&&
LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
3284 8892 3277 8918
$$
MSC079-170737-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0064.180420T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/CARM6.1.ER.180420T1200Z.180420T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pearl River Near Carthage
* From Friday morning until further notice.
* At 7:45 PM Sunday the stage was 15.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Friday
morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding of low areas along
and near the river is occurring.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Upper Pearl River
Carthage 17 15.1 Sun 08 PM 15.1 15.3 16.1 17.0 01 PM 04/20
&&
LAT...LON 3271 8964 3277 8956 3280 8951 3268 8946
3266 8952 3263 8960
$$
MSC079-170600-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0077.180416T1200Z-180417T0600Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180416T1200Z.180416T1200Z.180416T1800Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* From Monday morning to late Monday night.
* At 8:00 PM Sunday the stage was 24.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Agricultural land and low areas along and
near the river begin to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove 25 24.3 Sun 08 PM 25.0 22.1 15.0 25.0 07 AM 04/16
&&
LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
3258 8953 3263 8960
$$
MSC077-170737-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0075.000000T0000Z-180417T1200Z/
/MTCM6.1.ER.180415T1330Z.180416T0115Z.180417T0000Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pearl River Near Monticello
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At 8:15 PM Sunday the stage was 22.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below
flood stage tomorrow evening.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Middle Pearl River
Monticello 22 22.1 Sun 08 PM 22.1 21.7 20.6 Falling
&&
LAT...LON 3140 9008 3155 9017 3168 9019 3169 9005
3155 9002 3140 8992
$$
MSC091-170737-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0078.180417T1200Z-180418T0600Z/
/CLMM6.1.ER.180417T1200Z.180417T1200Z.180417T1800Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pearl River Near Columbia
* From Tuesday morning to late Tuesday night.
* At 8:15 PM Sunday the stage was 15.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage
Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Low areas near the river begin to flood.
Water covers Old Highway 35 on the west side of the river.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Camp Lane Road south of columbia on the east
side of the river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Lower Pearl River
Columbia 17 15.7 Sun 08 PM 16.3 17.0 16.6 17.0 01 PM 04/17
&&
LAT...LON 3100 8979 3121 8992 3140 9008 3140 8992
3124 8981 3100 8969
$$589
WGUS84 KJAN 161402
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
902 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...
Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County
Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
all rivers except for those in the Tombigbee River System which
includes Tibbee Creek, Luxapallila Creek, Noxubee River,and the
Tombigbee River mainstem where a routine of 48 hours of additional
rainfall is used.
Additional information is available at:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC099-172002-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0062.180417T1200Z-180420T1800Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180417T1200Z.180418T1200Z.180420T0600Z.NO/
902 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* from Tuesday morning to Friday afternoon.
* At 7:45 AM Monday the stage was 12.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage tomorrow morning
and will continue to rise to near 13.5 feet Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water begins to affect Burnside Lake Water
Park.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu Crest Time Date
Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia 13 12.3 Mon 08 AM 13.0 13.5 13.3 13.5 07 AM 04/18
&&
LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
3284 8892 3277 8918
$$
MSC079-171942-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-180417T1942Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180416T1619Z.180417T0000Z.180417T0742Z.NO/
902 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 8:00 AM Monday the stage was 24.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late this morning
and will continue to rise to near 25.3 feet this evening.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Agricultural land and low areas along and
near the river begin to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu Crest Time Date
Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove 25 24.8 Mon 08 AM 24.5 16.7 14.6 25.3 07 PM 04/16
&&
LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
3258 8953 3263 8960
$$156
WGUS84 KJAN 170104
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
804 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...
Pearl River Above Philadelphia affecting Neshoba County
Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
all rivers except for those in the Tombigbee River System which
includes Tibbee Creek, Luxapallila Creek, Noxubee River,and the
Tombigbee River mainstem where a routine of 48 hours of additional
rainfall is used.
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC099-180704-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0062.180417T0600Z-180420T1800Z/
/PLAM6.1.ER.180417T0600Z.180418T1200Z.180420T0600Z.NO/
804 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Pearl River Above Philadelphia
* from late tonight to Friday afternoon.
* At 6:45 PM Monday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage just after
midnight tonight and will continue to rise to near 13.5 feet
Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water begins to cover some of the Burnside
Lake Water Park roadways and camp areas.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water begins to affect Burnside Lake Water
Park.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu Crest Time Date
Upper Pearl River
Philadelphia 13 12.8 Mon 07 PM 13.1 13.5 13.3 13.5 07 AM 04/18
&&
LAT...LON 3289 8922 3291 8915 3293 8902 3292 8893
3284 8892 3277 8918
$$
MSC079-171942-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-180417T1942Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180416T1815Z.180417T0600Z.180417T0742Z.NO/
804 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 7:00 PM Monday the stage was 25.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Agricultural land and low areas along and
near the river begin to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu Crest Time Date
Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove 25 25.1 Mon 07 PM 24.5 16.7 14.6 Cresting
&&
LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
3258 8953 3263 8960
$$584
WGUS84 KJAN 171528
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1028 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Mississippi...
Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove affecting Leake County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
all rivers except for those in the Tombigbee River System which
includes Tibbee Creek, Luxapallila Creek, Noxubee River,and the
Tombigbee River mainstem where a routine of 48 hours of additional
rainfall is used.
Additional information is available at:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=JAN
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC079-171558-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-180417T1942Z/
/WTGM6.1.ER.180416T1815Z.180417T0415Z.180417T0837Z.NO/
1028 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Tuscolameta Creek At Walnut Grove.
* At 10:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 24.1 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 3:37 AM Tuesday.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 14.1 feet by
Friday morning.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 7 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Wed Thu Fri Crest Time Date
Tuscolameta Creek
Walnut Grove 25 24.1 Tue 10 AM 17.9 14.2 14.1
&&
LAT...LON 3266 8953 3261 8945 3257 8935 3250 8942
3258 8953 3263 8960
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 14, 7:15 PM CDT, 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 14, 7:15 PM CDT, 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 715 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion. Also made a few minor adjustments to short-term forecast elements through tonight. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: The line of heavier showers and thunderstorms is exiting the forecast area, with only light to moderate rain persisting at some TAF sites through the early tonight. The last of the rain should depart all TAF sites by 12Z Sunday. Expect improving ceilings and visibility from west to east as the rain and low clouds move east. Another deck of stratus is expected to move in from the northwest during the day on Sunday, with ceilings ranging from MVFR to VFR. Breezy west-northwest winds at all TAF sites by 15Z Sunday and lasting through 00Z Monday. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Rest of today through tonight: Overall the strong cold front is quickly moving through the region and rainfall is slowly pushing into eastern Mississippi. As mentioned before, increasing upper divergence and forcing will help showers to redevelop in the wake of the storms today. There might be enough elevated CAPE/MAUL to help some pockets of isolated thunder to develop. Can't rule out some localized flash flooding, especially across the east and south where light-moderate rain will linger or over any area that had quite a bit overnight and more moderate rain showers move back over through this evening. As the trough axis swings through and strong cold air advection moves in tonight, expect any showers, rain chances & clouds to quickly clear from west to east overnight. This will help strong ridging build in and much drier air to filter in. Dewpoints will fall into mid-upper 30s and PWs will fall less than half an inch overnight. Due to some lingering clouds and strong pressure gradient/winds overnight, lows will only fall into the upper 30s in the ArkLaMiss Delta to low-mid 40s (~8-15 degrees below normal). Tomorrow (Sunday) through next Friday: Overall much quieter period is in store as high pressure moves in. Expect a much cooler day on Sunday with high pressure slowly filtering in from the northwest. This will lead to much drier conditions, but Sunday should be much cooler. Due to that, we should only top out in the mid 50s-low 60s, some 15-20 degrees below normal and potentially reaching the top 5 coolest high temperatures. There potentially could be enough dry air & clear skies for us to fall into the low-mid 30s. This would normally be sufficient for frost formation. However, due to continued pressure gradient, decided to remove the patchy frost. If the gradient can weaken and the winds lighten up, may have to think about frost potential. As the strong trough builds east into early-mid week, expect strong surface & mid level ridging to build in from the west. This will lead to increasing warmth as low-level thermal profiles quickly warm. Due to dry air and some winds around, we should be able to mix out well, with temperatures warming into the low-mid 60s or so on Monday then well into the mid-upper 70s through mid-week (Tuesday- Thursday). We should have a brief light rain chances around mid-week (Wednesday afternoon-Thursday morning) due to a weak cold front & increase in moisture (PWs around an inch to an inch and a quarter) moving through the area. This will help increase rain chances only around slight chances with increasing clouds. As the trough digs to our northeast & weak frontal boundary moves through by Thursday morning, expect surface ridging & mid level to build in the wake with decreasing rain chances & clearing clouds. Due to slightly cooler thermal profiles, expect temperatures to be slightly cooler but still near normals as we go into late week. All eyes will begin focus on the deep longwave trough and strong low pressure system over the Rockies. This will eventually take shape and head towards our area by next weekend. For now, expect increasing clouds later on Friday as moisture slowly builds in from the west. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 42 60 37 66 / 83 8 1 1 Meridian 45 59 37 66 / 95 8 1 2 Vicksburg 41 60 38 66 / 52 8 1 1 Hattiesburg 44 63 38 69 / 93 8 0 0 Natchez 41 59 37 68 / 50 7 0 0 Greenville 40 58 37 63 / 35 8 1 1 Greenwood 40 56 36 61 / 72 8 1 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && NF/DC
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 14, 1:21 PM CDT, 6 hours 23 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040- 041-151830- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey- 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Friday. MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-151830- Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha- Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba- Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne- Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS- Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar- Forrest- 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon Flash flooding is possible through the afternoon as more moderate rain showers and some isolated thunderstorms could produce some localized heavy rainfall. Due to recent rainfall and wet soils, this could bring 1 to 3 inches of additional rain and localized flash flooding will be possible. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Friday. 23 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *FLOODING* Extreme...Confident in significant flooding. Significant...Significant flooding possible. Elevated...Confident in flooding. Limited...Flooding possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
In the hours before
Local storm report, Apr 14, 2:23 PM CDT, 5 hours 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
223 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE STONEWALL 32.16N 88.73W
04/14/2018 CLARKE MS EMERGENCY MNGR
A TREE WAS DOWNED ON CR 343.
&&
DLLocal storm report, Apr 14, 2:37 PM CDT, 5 hours 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 AM TSTM WND DMG 10 ESE STURGIS 33.27N 88.90W
04/14/2018 WINSTON MS TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE DOWNED ACROSS LOAKFOMA RD NEAR MS HWY
25.
&&
DLLocal storm report, Apr 14, 2:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1114 AM TSTM WND DMG 8 ENE MERIDIAN STATION 32.59N 88.49W
04/14/2018 KEMPER MS EMERGENCY MNGR
THE ROOF OF A MOBILE HOME WAS DAMAGED ON OLD
ROCK RD.
&&
DLLocal storm report, Apr 14, 4:24 PM CDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
424 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0744 AM TORNADO 1 N FLOWOOD 32.33N 90.11W
04/14/2018 RANKIN MS NWS STORM SURVEY
NWS SURVEY TEAM FOUND AN EF1 TORNADO WITH
MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90MPH, PATH LENGTH OF 6.15
MILES AND PATH WIDTH OF 50 YDS. THIS TORNADO
BEGAN NEAR JACKSON PREPARATORY SCHOOL ALONG
LAKELAND DRIVE AND TRACKED EAST-NORTHEAST
JUST NORTH OF THE LAKELAND DRIVE. MOST OF
THE DAMAGE WAS LIMITED TO TREES WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE INVOLVING
SNAPPED AND UPROOTED HARDWOOD TREES. THERE
WAS SCATTERED MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE,
MAINLY TO ROOFS, AS LARGE LIMBS AND TREES
FELL UPON RESIDENCES. A FEW BUSINESSES ALSO
SUSTAINED MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE DUE
DIRECTLY TO WINDS NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
GRANTS FERRY ROAD AND LAKELAND DRIVE. ALONG
A PORTION OF THE TORNADO'S PATH THROUGH
FLOWOOD AND MILLCREEK COMMUNITIES THE TRACK
SHOWED EVIDENCE OF SKIPPING AND PRODUCING
VERY LIMITED DAMAGE.
&&
DCLocal storm report, Apr 14, 6:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
616 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1025 AM TSTM WND DMG 3 N PURVIS 31.19N 89.41W
04/14/2018 LAMAR MS BROADCAST MEDIA
TREE WAS DOWNED ONTO POWER LINES ALONG
MCCARTER CIR.
&&
DLLocal storm report, Apr 14, 7:18 PM CDT, 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
718 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0322 AM TSTM WND DMG 5 E MER ROUGE 32.77N 91.71W
04/14/2018 MOREHOUSE LA TRAINED SPOTTER
A TREE WAS DOWNED AND A BUILDING WAS DAMAGED
ALONG RUSH HARRISON RD.
&&
DLThe office that day
Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 7:50 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | JAN | Marion | 37 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.