Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
749 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Thunderstorms can dot the area this evening, gradually weakening
overnight. A soaking rainfall is the main hazard, through a
locally damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms continue into Friday. Temperatures
tonight will fall into the mid 60s; high temperatures on Friday in
the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Thunderstorms have begun to develop ahead of a cold front located
from south-central Wisconsin through northern Michigan. Earlier
this morning, a thunderstorm drifted along the southeast shores of
Lake Michigan. This feature decayed upon moving further inland
and its remnant outflow boundary is believed to be located along
the greater U.S. 30 corridor. This can be the focus for a few
storms this evening as well. Given our temperatures in the 80s and
dew points in the 70s, our surface environment is unstable. CAPE
values are 1500-2000 j/kg. However, wind shear is lacking and so
is upper-level flow. All told, the severe threat remains low.

Any storms this evening are expected to continue to move south and
east into the heart of our county warning area overnight,
weakening with the loss of daytime heating. By early Friday
morning, this front stalls south of U.S. 30 and invites some
uncertainty into the Friday forecast. The uncertainty is in
regards to shower/t-storm activity prior to noon. The front will
be the source of lift, PWATs and dew points will be favorable, but
the missing piece prior to noon is instability. So, I will offer
slight chance POPs in the morning, increasing to chance in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Overnight Friday, in response to an upper-level trough digging in
from the Hudson Bay, the aformentioned cold front finally
propagates south and eastward. As this front exits, rain chances
will diminish for a brief time. The exception to this may be
northwest Ohio where the surface low is may be located. This may
keep some slight chance POPs in play. As we head into the weekend,
the upper-level trough becomes cut off from the mean flow aloft.
As such, we will be stuck with an upper-level low swirling over
the eastern Great Lakes. As the previous AFD author indicated,
there is some uncertainty as to how widespread shower/t-storm
chances are this weekend. The upper-level low bodes well in the
forcing department, but 12Z GFS PWATs indicate a negative PWAT
anomaly over our area this weekend. Our position on the northwest
side of the low will limit our moisture stream. Thunder will
likely be limited. Bottom line for the weekend: there is a small
chance for showers, but the weekend does not look to be a wash-
out.

Monday night and into Tuesday, the upper-level low finally gets
kicked out of the eastern Great Lakes as a potent trough sweeps
across Ontario. As such, Tuesday looks to be our transition day
between storm systems. By Wednesday, a second trough lifts out of
the Central Plains and can bring wet weather back to the forecast
as early as Wednesday morning. Depending on how this feature
phases (or fails to phase) with the Ontario trough, we could see a
soaking rain event perhaps lingering into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Storms will continue to develop along frontal boundary this
evening as a weak upstream short wave approaches from Wisconsin.
Track of this vort and proximity to more defined instability axis
should give KSBN best chances of thunder this evening, generally
in the 00Z-03Z timeframe. Storms may survive into KFWA late this
evening, but confidence remains too low for anything more than
VCTS at KFWA. Slow passage of upstream sheared vort max will keep
upper forcing in place with some elevated instability. While
cannot discount showers and storms affected terminals overnight,
coverage is expected to be too low for inclusion. Front should
hang up in KFWA vicinity early Friday morning, with generally weak
north-northeast winds at terminals on Friday. Additional storms
possible Friday afternoon, although better focus may stay south of
terminals and will keep TAFS dry for Friday at this time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Marsili

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-101900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018 /157 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.
A few isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds may be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Severe weather
is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-101900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and may produce gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
711 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ007-009-MIZ081-OHZ001-002-004-005-100000-
De Kalb-Steuben-Hillsdale-Henry-Defiance-Fulton-Williams-
711 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN STEUBEN...
NORTHERN DE KALB...SOUTHEASTERN HILLSDALE...NORTHERN DEFIANCE...
NORTHWESTERN HENRY...SOUTHERN FULTON AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES...

At 710 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Fayette to near Waterloo. Movement
was southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bryan, Wauseon, Archbold, Montpelier, Butler, Waterloo, Edgerton,
West Unity, Hamilton, Pioneer, Stryker, Fayette, Edon, Holiday City,
Edgerton In Williams County, Columbia, West Jefferson, Pulaski,
Ashley and Farmer.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 336 and 344.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 154 and 156.
 Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 36.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 8390 4127 8468 4153 8519 4154 8520
      4177 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 306DEG 30KT 4167 8440 4149 8506

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
723 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ003-004-MIZ077-100015-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Berrien-
723 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST.
JOSEPH...NORTHERN LA PORTE AND SOUTHWESTERN BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 723 PM EDT/623 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Bridgman to
near New Buffalo to near Porter. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Michigan City, La Porte, Westville, Trail Creek, Bridgman, New
Buffalo, New Carlisle, Three Oaks, Long Beach, Pottawattamie Park,
Shorewood-Tower Hill, Shorewood-Tower Hills-Harbert, Baroda, Galien,
Michiana Shores, Grand Beach, Kingsbury, Michiana, Union Pier and
Glendora.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 38 and 65.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 33 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 19.

Seek shelter until these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4194 8670 4204 8664 4190 8641 4160 8651
      4144 8693 4171 8693 4173 8691 4178 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 313DEG 26KT 4202 8674 4183 8684 4170 8709

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
731 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ005-006-008-016-100000-
Lagrange-Noble-Kosciusko-Elkhart-
731 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELKHART...
NOBLE...NORTHEASTERN KOSCIUSKO AND SOUTHWESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

At 731 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Rome City to near Millersburg.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kendallville, Ligonier, Avilla, Albion, Rome City, Topeka,
Millersburg, Wolcottville, Cromwell, Brimfield, Honeyville, Lisbon,
Woodruff, Kimmel, Eddy, Adams Lake, Lake Wawasee, Oliver Lake and
Cosperville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4141 8519 4137 8519 4134 8574 4160 8571
      4160 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 302DEG 24KT 4153 8537 4151 8574

MARSILI

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
814 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ008-017-100100-
Noble-Whitley-
814 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NOBLE AND
NORTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 813 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Albion to near North Webster. Movement
was southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia City, Tri-lakes, Albion, Churubusco, Etna, Ege, Green
Center, Merriam, Blue Lake, Big Lake, Goose Lake, Loon Lake, Ormas,
Wolflake, Ari, Bear Lake, Knapp Lake and Lorane.

Seek shelter until these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 8519 4127 8519 4126 8520 4126 8531
      4123 8531 4116 8554 4135 8561 4142 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 319DEG 15KT 4141 8544 4135 8560

MARSILI