Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Northern Indiana

523 
WWUS53 KIWX 100115
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
915 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INC039-100130-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-180810T0130Z/
Elkhart IN-
915 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELKHART COUNTY...

At 914 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Goshen, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Goshen, New Paris, Benton, Southwest, Foraker and Waterford Mills. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4152 8573 4144 8577 4144 8579 4150 8597
      4157 8594
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 285DEG 29KT 4156 8578 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MARSILI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
749 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Thunderstorms can dot the area this evening, gradually weakening
overnight. A soaking rainfall is the main hazard, through a
locally damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms continue into Friday. Temperatures
tonight will fall into the mid 60s; high temperatures on Friday in
the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Thunderstorms have begun to develop ahead of a cold front located
from south-central Wisconsin through northern Michigan. Earlier
this morning, a thunderstorm drifted along the southeast shores of
Lake Michigan. This feature decayed upon moving further inland
and its remnant outflow boundary is believed to be located along
the greater U.S. 30 corridor. This can be the focus for a few
storms this evening as well. Given our temperatures in the 80s and
dew points in the 70s, our surface environment is unstable. CAPE
values are 1500-2000 j/kg. However, wind shear is lacking and so
is upper-level flow. All told, the severe threat remains low.

Any storms this evening are expected to continue to move south and
east into the heart of our county warning area overnight,
weakening with the loss of daytime heating. By early Friday
morning, this front stalls south of U.S. 30 and invites some
uncertainty into the Friday forecast. The uncertainty is in
regards to shower/t-storm activity prior to noon. The front will
be the source of lift, PWATs and dew points will be favorable, but
the missing piece prior to noon is instability. So, I will offer
slight chance POPs in the morning, increasing to chance in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Overnight Friday, in response to an upper-level trough digging in
from the Hudson Bay, the aformentioned cold front finally
propagates south and eastward. As this front exits, rain chances
will diminish for a brief time. The exception to this may be
northwest Ohio where the surface low is may be located. This may
keep some slight chance POPs in play. As we head into the weekend,
the upper-level trough becomes cut off from the mean flow aloft.
As such, we will be stuck with an upper-level low swirling over
the eastern Great Lakes. As the previous AFD author indicated,
there is some uncertainty as to how widespread shower/t-storm
chances are this weekend. The upper-level low bodes well in the
forcing department, but 12Z GFS PWATs indicate a negative PWAT
anomaly over our area this weekend. Our position on the northwest
side of the low will limit our moisture stream. Thunder will
likely be limited. Bottom line for the weekend: there is a small
chance for showers, but the weekend does not look to be a wash-
out.

Monday night and into Tuesday, the upper-level low finally gets
kicked out of the eastern Great Lakes as a potent trough sweeps
across Ontario. As such, Tuesday looks to be our transition day
between storm systems. By Wednesday, a second trough lifts out of
the Central Plains and can bring wet weather back to the forecast
as early as Wednesday morning. Depending on how this feature
phases (or fails to phase) with the Ontario trough, we could see a
soaking rain event perhaps lingering into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

Storms will continue to develop along frontal boundary this
evening as a weak upstream short wave approaches from Wisconsin.
Track of this vort and proximity to more defined instability axis
should give KSBN best chances of thunder this evening, generally
in the 00Z-03Z timeframe. Storms may survive into KFWA late this
evening, but confidence remains too low for anything more than
VCTS at KFWA. Slow passage of upstream sheared vort max will keep
upper forcing in place with some elevated instability. While
cannot discount showers and storms affected terminals overnight,
coverage is expected to be too low for inclusion. Front should
hang up in KFWA vicinity early Friday morning, with generally weak
north-northeast winds at terminals on Friday. Additional storms
possible Friday afternoon, although better focus may stay south of
terminals and will keep TAFS dry for Friday at this time.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Brown
SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Marsili

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-101900-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018 /157 PM CDT Thu Aug 9 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.
A few isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds may be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Severe weather
is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LMZ043-046-101900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and may produce gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
814 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ008-017-100100-
Noble-Whitley-
814 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NOBLE AND
NORTHEASTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 813 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Albion to near North Webster. Movement
was southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia City, Tri-lakes, Albion, Churubusco, Etna, Ege, Green
Center, Merriam, Blue Lake, Big Lake, Goose Lake, Loon Lake, Ormas,
Wolflake, Ari, Bear Lake, Knapp Lake and Lorane.

Seek shelter until these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 8519 4127 8519 4126 8520 4126 8531
      4123 8531 4116 8554 4135 8561 4142 8543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 319DEG 15KT 4141 8544 4135 8560

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
826 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ005-008-016-100100-
Noble-Kosciusko-Elkhart-
826 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELKHART...WEST
CENTRAL NOBLE AND NORTHEASTERN KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES...

At 825 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Syracuse,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goshen, Syracuse, North Webster, New Paris, Benton, Cromwell, Big
Barbee Lake, Wilmot, James Lake, Knapp Lake, Kimmel, Lake Wawasee,
Dewart Lake, Oakwood Park, Waterford Mills and Sechrist Lake.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4136 8548 4129 8563 4130 8565 4129 8565
      4127 8569 4150 8592 4156 8582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 308DEG 20KT 4147 8577

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
828 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ008-009-018-OHZ004-015-100115-
Noble-Allen-De Kalb-Defiance-Paulding-
828 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ALLEN...
SOUTHEASTERN NOBLE...DE KALB...WEST CENTRAL DEFIANCE AND NORTHWESTERN
PAULDING COUNTIES...

At 828 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near St. Joe to near Huntertown to near
Tri-lakes. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, New Haven, Auburn, Garrett, Hicksville, Butler,
Huntertown, Paulding, Avilla, Waterloo, Antwerp, Woodburn, Payne,
Grabill, St. Joe, Leo-cedarville, Swan, Concord, Newville and Altona.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 19 and 30.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 306 and 334.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4112 8452 4104 8480 4106 8522 4118 8531
      4126 8531 4127 8537 4138 8546 4141 8522
      4148 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 313DEG 27KT 4135 8486 4128 8517 4129 8545

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
830 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ008-017-018-100115-
Noble-Whitley-Allen-
830 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ALLEN...
SOUTH CENTRAL NOBLE AND EASTERN WHITLEY COUNTIES...

At 830 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Churubusco to Tri-lakes. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia City, Tri-lakes, Churubusco, Laud, Green Center, Dunfee,
Merriam, Blue Lake, Big Lake, Coesse, Loon Lake, Raber, Collins,
Arcola, Lake Everett, Peabody and Ormas.

This includes Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 305 and
306.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 8521 4102 8547 4129 8557 4133 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 299DEG 23KT 4125 8531 4123 8551

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
835 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ003>005-012-014>016-100100-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Kosciusko-Marshall-Fulton-Elkhart-Starke-
835 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN ELKHART...
CENTRAL ST. JOSEPH...NORTHWESTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN KOSCIUSKO...
EASTERN STARKE...MARSHALL AND EAST CENTRAL LA PORTE COUNTIES...

At 834 PM EDT/734 PM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from near Osceola to near Plymouth to
Knox. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Mishawaka, Plymouth, Nappanee, Bremen, Knox, Gulivoire
Park, Granger, Osceola, Walkerton, North Liberty, Bourbon, Wakarusa,
Argos, Milford, Culver, Hamlet, Lakeville, Koontz Lake and Locke.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 81 and
82.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 8651 4173 8616 4142 8584 4120 8608
      4110 8644 4113 8647 4117 8647 4117 8651
      4143 8678
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 313DEG 28KT 4159 8608 4139 8632 4128 8661

MARSILI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
841 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

INZ005-006-100115-
Lagrange-Elkhart-
841 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ELKHART AND
SOUTHWESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

At 841 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Dunlap, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Goshen, Dunlap, Middlebury, Millersburg, Benton and
Honeyville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4159 8553 4152 8560 4152 8566 4148 8565
      4146 8567 4163 8599 4172 8594
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 301DEG 22KT 4164 8590

CR