Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion...Correction
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
307 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected late
this afternoon into tonight. A few thunderstorms may be strong to
severe late this afternoon and evening. A few showers may linger
into Wednesday. Dry conditions on Thursday will be followed by
periodic chances for showers Friday through Sunday. Lows will fall
into the mid to upper 60s tonight, with highs on Wednesday in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Leftover/diffuse differential heating boundary will once again
activate late afternoon and evening as forcing/deeper moisture with
an approaching mid level shortwave and increasing upper divergence
aloft overspreads from the west. MLCAPE values near 1500 j/kg and
modest effective shear pushing 30-35 knots may support a low end
risk for isolated strong/severe convection if any line segments
emerge, best chances north of US 24 22z through 02z. Damaging wind
gusts and heavy rain will be the primary threats. Shower
coverage/intensity should taper off a bit then overnight as
boundary layer cools/stabilizes.

Low chances for iso-sct showers and clouds will continue into
Wednesday as the low-mid level trough axis pivots through. Deeper
moisture/large scale ascent will exit off to the east resulting in
lower PoPs locally, especially across western portions of the
forecast area as drier air infiltrates and lake shadow spreads
well inland in the afternoon. Highs will likely reach in the low
80s tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

A mainly dry/quiet Thursday will give way to periodic rain chances
and temps generally near to below normal Friday into the weekend as
an upper trough digs over the region, eventually leaving a closed
low in the vicinity of the OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes by
Sunday/Monday. Strong to severe storms are not expected through the
period at this time, with higher shower/iso storm chances mainly
confined to the diurnal heating cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

Focus this afternoon will be on showers and storms developing
across the area. Slowly dissipating MVFR CIGs across the area
indicates the lingering stratus from this morning, but also
hinting that instability was starting to form. Watching an area of
showers in Illinois with some IFR CIGs underneath it that could
hamper thunder potential, but seeing hints that it will dissipate
before it gets here. Models form showers and storms during the
early afternoon with chances for damaging winds, heavy rain and
lightning and these would continue into the first portion of the
overnight. Expecting more flight restrictions from heavier rain to
MVFR or IFR conditions within the thunderstorms.

Also think the possibility of returning to stratus or fog is real
into Wed AM with lingering sfc moisture from rain and light winds
overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
302 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-081915-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
302 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018 /202 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening.
A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with damaging winds
and heavy rain the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible through the weekend but no
severe weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

LMZ043-046-081915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
302 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening.
A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe, with damaging winds
and heavy rain the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Periodic thunderstorms are possible through the weekend but no
severe weather is expected.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1123 AM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW BETZER             41.73N 84.50W
08/06/2018                   HILLSDALE          MI   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE TO A
            BARN...INCLUDING A BARN FIRE YESTERDAY (AUG
            6).

&&

MCS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
439 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

INZ005-072115-
Elkhart-
439 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ELKHART COUNTY...

At 438 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Simonton Lake,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart, Simonton Lake and Bristol.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 90 and
98.

Radar does indicate some weak rotation with this storm. Please
report any funnel cloud sightings to the Northern Indiana National
Weather Service via law enforcement or social media.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 8585 4170 8582 4168 8601 4174 8602
      4176 8593
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 259DEG 13KT 4172 8598

MARSILI