Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
752 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will develop later today into tonight. A
few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Chances for
showers will remain in the forecast into Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Lows tonight will drop to near 70 degrees, with highs on
Tuesday ranging between the upper 70s and mid 80s. Drier and less
humid conditions are expected into Wednesday and Thursday. This
will be followed by periodic chances for showers Friday into next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

The main focus will remain on convective/severe trends into tonight
and Tuesday.

Convective outflow boundary trailing a Michigan MCV will force a broken
line of convection through far ne IN/sc Lower MI/far nw OH
through 5-6 pm. MLCAPE values now pushing 2000 j/kg with 35 knots
of effective shear may help produce an isolated severe cell in
these areas, though so far activity is primarily outflow dominant
as stronger flow lags the boundary. Mainly dry/humid otherwise
through the late afternoon.

Shot of deeper moisture and mid level vorticity advection with an
approaching mid level jet/shortwave now over IA should allow convection
to blossom near leftover frontal boundary across nw IN/lower MI
btw 23-02z. MLCAPE values likely exceeding 2000 j/kg and some
increase in LLJ (0-3 kt bulk shear magnitudes up to near 30 knots)
with incoming height falls suggest eventual organization.
Development into bands/bowing clusters appears possible given more
unidirectional look to the wind profile (isolated damaging winds
the main threat), though later diurnal timing/marginal deep layer
shear/meager mid level lapse rates suggest an isolated wind threat
at best. There is also a non-zero weak tornado threat with any
surges or storm scale outflow interactions given relatively low
LCL's and increasing low level flow...though lack of backed
surface flow keeps point chances low (SPC 2% risk).

Round of rain/storms is the expected to evolve east through eastern
portions of the forecast area later this evening into the early
overnight. The severe threat should wane with eastward
progression as leading line likely becomes outflow dominate
removed from better mid level flow. Boundary layer will also
cool/decouple limiting the wind threat. Some areas may see an inch
or more of rainfall otherwise given high moisture content and
potential for some backbuilding (small MBE velocities). Brief
urban/advisory level flooding will be the main threat.

Latest CAMs solutions have trended more aggressive with shunting the
composite outflow off to the south later tonight and Tuesday in wake
of this evening's convective complex. Lowered PoPs/QPF as a result
during this periods, though could still see a more widespread area
of rain/thunder impact the local area sometime Tuesday afternoon or
evening as the main mid-upper level trough axis pivots through.
Cooler/mainly cloudy the story otherwise on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Wednesday and Thursday will feature quieter/less humid wx, though a
stray late day shower cannot be ruled out either day given cyclonic
flow and weak diurnal instability. An upper trough then digs in nw
flow over the Great Lakes region Friday, eventually cutting off over
the lower Lakes/Ohio Valley this weekend as a closed low per last
several models cycles. This process will send a cold front through on
Friday with low pressure lingering in the vicinity over the weekend.
The result will be periodic shower chances and temps generally near
to below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 744 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Low amplitude upper wave and frontal boundary led to rapid
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Storms have congealed
across NW Indiana and should track eastward providing gusty winds
to northeast Indiana through 05Z. Would expect a period of storms
at KFWA in the 02Z-05Z timeframe with some gusts in excess of 30
knots possible. Effective outflow boundary will shift south of the
terminals for Tuesday, and may need to watch for possible upstream
MCV to initiate more convection across east central Illinois and
portions of central/north central Indiana Tuesday afternoon.
Current thinking is best chances Tuesday afternoon would be south
of KFWA and will keep terminal dry after tonight. A brief period
of cigs below 2k feet is possible late tonight into early Tuesday,
with cigs improving back to VFR levels for Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
225 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

INZ003>005-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>079-OHZ004-005-015-016-
024-025-071830-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-
Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
225 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018 /125 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening.
Damaging straight-line winds and heavy rain are the primary threats.

Heat indices will be in the mid 90s today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Friday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ006>009-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-071830-
Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-
225 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Damaging straight-line winds and heavy rain are the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Friday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LMZ043-046-071830-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
225 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for The Nearshore Waters of
Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this evening. Strong to severe storms will
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Friday
afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
902 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S COLON               41.94N 85.33W
08/06/2018                   ST. JOSEPH         MI   PUBLIC

            TWO LARGE TREES TIPPED OVER. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

CR

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