Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
257 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and
evening. Strong to severe storms possible especially south of US
24. Primary threats are strong winds and small hail with an
isolated tornado possible. Gusty northwest winds will usher in
chances for snow by late tonight. Lows will bottom out in the
30s. Wednesday will be cold and blustery, with only minor rises in
temperatures through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

18Z surface analysis has low pressure center over west central
Illinois with warm front extending eastward across south central
Indiana. 3hr pressure falls of 3-4mb from east central Illinois
thru northern Indiana consistent with latest HIRES guidance that
has surface low tracking right through our CWA this evening. This
still allows potential for warm sector to nudge into our far SE
CWA and keep chance for strong to severe storms...although latest
mesoanalysis indicating effective layer for surface based inflow
still south of I-70 so still a ways to go to reach up into our
CWA. Until then expect storms to remain elevated with heavy rain
and small hail primary threats. Regional radar mosaic showing
convection now beginning to fire along the trailing cold front
through MO/AR/OK...this could also factor in later this evening as
low tracks up through the area but again limited to southern and
eastern portions of the CWA. Water vapor imagery indicating upper
trof lagging back in the Dakotas which should create a small
window for dry slot to bring a brief break in precip before wrap
around moisture in deformation zone moves in after midnight. Just
a brief rain/snow mix before changing to all snow by early morning
Wednesday. Overnight/early morning timing could result in an inch
or so accumulation in the far NW CWA but should not be very
impactful. A cloudy...breezy and unseasonably cold day for
Wednesday with temperatures running 20F below normal as highs only
get into the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Unseasonably cold pattern will prevail through much of the long
term period as negative height anomalies emanating from Hudson Bay
closed low persist over much of the northern CONUS. This will
have temperatures running 10-15F below normal. Brief period of dry
wx to begin the period with surface high pressure over the TN/OH
valley. This will be short lived however as energy rotating down
from Canada will bring next chance for precip Thursday aftn/eve
timeframe. Thermal profiles on forecast soundings supportive of a
rain/snow mix possible in the northern CWA and favoring more of an
all rain event in the south. Pacific energy coming onshore this
weekend will drive next system across the CONUS with a more
southerly track across the southern US now indicated by medium
range models as Canadian high pressure builds into the great lakes
and midwest this weekend...but blend is slow to grab onto this
trend and has chance POPs from the end of the weekend into the
beginning of next week. Temperatures will favor snow at night and
mainly rain during the daytime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Rather poor flight conditions throughout the period is expected.
Showers and thunderstorms at the onset of the TAF period at both
terminals will lead to low CIGS and poor VISBY. Rain snow mix
starting this evening with winds shifting from southerly to more
westerly and ramping up to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25kts.
Strong winds continue through morning before diminishing and
flight conditions should improve to MVFR by end of forecast
period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Heidelberger
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...Heidelberger

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
328 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-041930-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
328 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 /228 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected resulting in flooding of urban
and low lying areas. There is still a chance for strong to severe
storms as well with large hail...damaging winds...and possibly a
tornado.

Light snow accumulations are possible near Lake Michigan later
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-080-041930-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-
line of lake.-
328 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan and Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A gale warning is in effect for late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
541 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2018

INZ006-007-MIZ080-081-032230-
Lagrange-Steuben-Branch-Hillsdale-
541 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN STEUBEN...
NORTHEASTERN LAGRANGE...BRANCH AND HILLSDALE COUNTIES...

At 540 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Colon to 8 miles east of Lagrange.
Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

Dime size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Coldwater, Hillsdale, Bronson, Jonesville, Fremont, Quincy, Union
City, Litchfield, Reading, Long Lake, Jerome, Ray, Cambria, Girard,
Pittsford, Kinderhook, Moscow, Batavia, California and Gilead.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 354 and 357.
 Interstate 69 in Michigan between mile markers 1 and 21.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 128 and 147.

LAT...LON 4195 8436 4189 8436 4160 8530 4207 8529
      4207 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 240DEG 56KT 4195 8532 4167 8526

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
600 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2018

INZ007-009-MIZ081-OHZ001-002-032245-
De Kalb-Steuben-Hillsdale-Fulton-Williams-
600 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN...
NORTHEASTERN DE KALB...SOUTHERN HILLSDALE...FULTON AND WILLIAMS
COUNTIES...

At 600 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Hamilton to Butler. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.

Dime size hail is possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Angola, Bryan, Wauseon, Archbold, Montpelier, Swanton, Butler,
Morenci, Delta, Hudson, Edgerton, West Unity, Hamilton, Pioneer,
Stryker, Fayette, Edon, Holiday City, Edgerton In Williams County and
Columbia.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 149 and 156.
 Interstate 80 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 48.

LAT...LON 4142 8464 4143 8480 4139 8481 4135 8496
      4168 8498 4188 8436 4171 8436 4172 8388
      4160 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 240DEG 58KT 4160 8489 4142 8488

NWS