Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
257 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and
evening. Strong to severe storms possible especially south of US
24. Primary threats are strong winds and small hail with an
isolated tornado possible. Gusty northwest winds will usher in
chances for snow by late tonight. Lows will bottom out in the
30s. Wednesday will be cold and blustery, with only minor rises in
temperatures through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

18Z surface analysis has low pressure center over west central
Illinois with warm front extending eastward across south central
Indiana. 3hr pressure falls of 3-4mb from east central Illinois
thru northern Indiana consistent with latest HIRES guidance that
has surface low tracking right through our CWA this evening. This
still allows potential for warm sector to nudge into our far SE
CWA and keep chance for strong to severe storms...although latest
mesoanalysis indicating effective layer for surface based inflow
still south of I-70 so still a ways to go to reach up into our
CWA. Until then expect storms to remain elevated with heavy rain
and small hail primary threats. Regional radar mosaic showing
convection now beginning to fire along the trailing cold front
through MO/AR/OK...this could also factor in later this evening as
low tracks up through the area but again limited to southern and
eastern portions of the CWA. Water vapor imagery indicating upper
trof lagging back in the Dakotas which should create a small
window for dry slot to bring a brief break in precip before wrap
around moisture in deformation zone moves in after midnight. Just
a brief rain/snow mix before changing to all snow by early morning
Wednesday. Overnight/early morning timing could result in an inch
or so accumulation in the far NW CWA but should not be very
impactful. A cloudy...breezy and unseasonably cold day for
Wednesday with temperatures running 20F below normal as highs only
get into the low to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Unseasonably cold pattern will prevail through much of the long
term period as negative height anomalies emanating from Hudson Bay
closed low persist over much of the northern CONUS. This will
have temperatures running 10-15F below normal. Brief period of dry
wx to begin the period with surface high pressure over the TN/OH
valley. This will be short lived however as energy rotating down
from Canada will bring next chance for precip Thursday aftn/eve
timeframe. Thermal profiles on forecast soundings supportive of a
rain/snow mix possible in the northern CWA and favoring more of an
all rain event in the south. Pacific energy coming onshore this
weekend will drive next system across the CONUS with a more
southerly track across the southern US now indicated by medium
range models as Canadian high pressure builds into the great lakes
and midwest this weekend...but blend is slow to grab onto this
trend and has chance POPs from the end of the weekend into the
beginning of next week. Temperatures will favor snow at night and
mainly rain during the daytime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Rather poor flight conditions throughout the period is expected.
Showers and thunderstorms at the onset of the TAF period at both
terminals will lead to low CIGS and poor VISBY. Rain snow mix
starting this evening with winds shifting from southerly to more
westerly and ramping up to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 25kts.
Strong winds continue through morning before diminishing and
flight conditions should improve to MVFR by end of forecast
period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Heidelberger
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...Heidelberger

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
328 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-041930-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
328 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018 /228 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected through this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected resulting in flooding of urban
and low lying areas. There is still a chance for strong to severe
storms as well with large hail...damaging winds...and possibly a
tornado.

Light snow accumulations are possible near Lake Michigan later
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through this evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-080-041930-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-
line of lake.-
328 PM EDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan and Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A gale warning is in effect for late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             2 NNW OSCEOLA           41.69N 86.10W
04/03/2018  M0.50 INCH       ST. JOSEPH         IN   COCORAHS

            SOME STONES UP TO 5/8".

&&

CR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
306 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

INZ003-012-032030-
La Porte-Starke-
306 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STARKE AND CENTRAL LA PORTE
COUNTIES...

At 305 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over North Judson,
or 7 miles east of Dunns Bridge, moving northeast at 55 mph. There
was also a second storm near La Crosse moving northeast.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knox, North Judson, Kingsford Heights, Wanatah, Hamlet, La Crosse,
Koontz Lake, Hanna, Kingsbury, Thomaston, Lomax, South Center,
English Lake, Salem Heights, Fish Lake, South Wanatah, Brems, Tracy,
Stillwell and Union Mills.

LAT...LON 4142 8693 4165 8649 4157 8649 4156 8650
      4152 8650 4151 8653 4143 8652 4143 8648
      4132 8647 4117 8683 4117 8687 4129 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 238DEG 49KT 4122 8683

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
422 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             MONTGOMERY              41.78N 84.81W
04/03/2018  E0.50 INCH       HILLSDALE          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CR

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