Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Northern Indiana

May 2, 2018Branch County, Hillsdale County, Michigan

NWS Northern Indiana issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 2, 2018, 9:16 PM EDT for Branch County, Hillsdale County, Michigan. It was in force for 44 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 2, 2018, 9:16 PM EDT (01:16 UTC)
Expired: May 2, 2018, 10:00 PM EDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Northern Indiana
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Branch County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 2, 9:32 PM EDT	TSTM WND GST 65	1 Ne Moscow, MI
May 2, 9:48 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	5 Sse Jerome, MI	LARGE TREE DOWN ON WALDRON ROAD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 1.3 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 162 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1993 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 176 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

815 
WUUS53 KIWX 030116
SVRIWX
MIC023-059-030200-
/O.NEW.KIWX.SV.W.0011.180503T0116Z-180503T0200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
916 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana  has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Branch County in southwestern Michigan...
  Hillsdale County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 1000 PM EDT

* At 916 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Quincy, or 9
  miles west of Hillsdale, moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to 
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Hillsdale, Ransom, Waldron, Camden, Montgomery, Allen, Prattville 
  and Lake Wilson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4171 8436 4170 8481 4176 8481 4176 8486
      4207 8488 4207 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 269DEG 53KT 4190 8482 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Brown

1 follow-up statement

134 
WWUS53 KIWX 030158
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
958 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

MIC023-059-030208-
/O.EXP.KIWX.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-180503T0200Z/
Branch MI-Hillsdale MI-
958 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BRANCH AND HILLSDALE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4171 8436 4170 8481 4176 8481 4176 8486
      4207 8488 4207 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 269DEG 53KT 4191 8399 

$$

FISHER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 2, 7:34 PM EDT, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 2, 7:34 PM EDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
734 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

A wet period is just ahead with periodic chances for showers and
storms from tonight through Friday, with storms ending early
Friday evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible,
but widespread severe weather is not expected. Highs will be in
the 70s Thursday through Saturday, then a little cooler Sunday
with highs from 65 to around 70. Little if any rain is expected
this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

Moisture has really increased from the south this afternoon with
dew points climbing to around 60 degrees most areas. Any fire
weather issues will end tonight with a widespread rain. Given
moisture increasing from the south with steeper mid level lapse
rates, surface based CAPEs per SPC analysis had climbed to around
1500 J/Kg over the southern sections of northern Indiana this
afternoon. A stray shower or storm is possible over these area;
however, better chances for showers & storms will be tonight as
upstream convection organizes and moves east along a strong but
slowly moving front. Severe weather parameters appear marginal
tonight through Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained
a marginal risk for severe storms into Friday in this regard.
There may be a break in the showers and storms Thursday before the
second wave moves across the area late Thursday into Friday.
Precipitable water values will rise above 1.5 inches per GFS and
be close to climate maxes for this time of year through Thursday
night. Widespread rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches are
likely by late Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and rises on rivers
are likely with some rivers possibly flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

A tranquil period is ahead for the weekend into early next week.
There is a good chance a weak system will bring some showers
Sunday, but the rest of the period from Saturday through next
Wednesday should be dry with temperatures close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

VFR through the overnight although continued and sustained moisture
advection into the area along with numerous showers/thunderstorms
will eventually yield MVFR cigs aft daybreak Thu. Thereafter should
remain dry/stable until late aftn/early eve before next chc tsra
takes shape.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous weather outlook, May 2, 5:19 PM EDT, 3 hours 57 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
519 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-031000-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
519 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018 /419 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms tonight. A few storms may
approach severe limits with hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts to 60
mph this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional chances for thunderstorms exist toward Thursday evening
and again Friday afternoon. A few strong storms are possible each
period with an isolated severe risk possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-031000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
519 PM EDT Wed May 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few southwest gusts to 25 knots are possible this evening.

Scattered to numerous are expected through evening. A strong to
severe thunderstorm is possible this evening with gusty winds in
excess of 35 knots and hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Conditions hazardous to small craft may develop Thursday night into
early Friday.

Additional chances for thunderstorms exist Thursday afternoon and
evening with an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm possible.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 2, 8:31 PM EDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
831 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OSCEOLA                 41.67N 86.08W
05/02/2018                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

GH

Local storm report, May 2, 8:33 PM EDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
833 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOTTVILLE               41.80N 85.76W
05/02/2018                   ST. JOSEPH         MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER POLES DOWN.

&&

GH

Local storm report, May 2, 8:37 PM EDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
837 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIMONTON LAKE           41.75N 85.97W
05/02/2018                   ELKHART            IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DOWNED TREES AND FENCES.

&&

GH

Local storm report, May 2, 8:43 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
843 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW OSCEOLA           41.66N 86.10W
05/02/2018                   ST. JOSEPH         IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL POWER POLES DOWN NEAR MARTINS.

&&

GH

Local storm report, May 2, 8:47 PM EDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
847 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONSTANTINE             41.84N 85.67W
05/02/2018                   ST. JOSEPH         MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER POLES DOWN.

&&

GH

Local storm report, May 2, 9:09 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
909 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     LIGHTNING        STURGIS                 41.80N 85.42W
05/02/2018                   ST. JOSEPH         MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            LOTS OF STRUCTURE FIRES DUE TO LIGHTNING
            STRIKES.

&&

GH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 2, 8:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Saint Joseph	45 min
May 2, 8:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass, Saint Joseph	47 min
May 2, 8:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Branch, Saint Joseph	46 min
May 2, 8:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Saint Joseph	27 min
May 2, 9:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Branch	28 min
May 2, 9:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Cass	33 min
May 2, 9:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Berrien	29 min
May 2, 9:53 PM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	IWX	Cass	11 hr
May 2, 9:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien	48 min
May 2, 10:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien	40 min
May 2, 10:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien, Cass, Saint Joseph	51 min
May 3, 9:24 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	IWX	Branch, Saint Joseph	25 hr
May 3, 9:45 AM EDT	River Flood Warning	IWX	Berrien	5 days

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.