River Flood Warning 298, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1245 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 343 AM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

Rain will rapidly continue to spread into central Indiana from the
south this morning as an area of low pressure rotates over the
Central Plains. As forcing strengthens throughout the day, so
will the chances for isolated strong thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. After some lingering rain and snow showers over the
northern portions of central Indiana through Monday, much colder
and drier air will build over the region for most of the extended
period. The only exception in the extended period will be low
chances for some rain/snow showers on Thursday/Thursday night with
a frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...

Issued at 1040 AM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

For the update...increased wind gusts a little based on
observations, so could see gusts of 30 to 40 mph outside of any
storms. Otherwise decreased PoPs for parts of central Indiana for a
few hours this morning/early afternoon based on radar and hi res
model trends, with many locations across the area seeing an hour to
a few hours of dry time then. Overall though still expecting more
development this afternoon, with the best chances for strong to
severe storms to be this afternoon and evening, from 3 to 10 pm. If
skies scatter/clear for a time this will become more likely.

Relevant parts of previous discussion are below...

The main focus of the near term period will be thunderstorm
chances.

Current synoptic setup shows an area of low pressure centered over
the Kansas/Oklahoma border with a warm front stretching through the
southern Missouri Valley and to the east coast. So far, there has
been little thunder activity, but the chances could increase later
this afternoon and evening. The best instability will be located
west of here where the dry slot will be most prevalent, but if there
is enough time for some drier air to destabilize the environment
this afternoon across central Indiana, there could still be a threat
for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Nonetheless, outside of
any potential convective development, winds will still be strong out
of the southeast with sustained speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts
around 30 mph. In addition, trended slightly above the blended
initialization in regard to today's highs due to the strong warm
advection. As a result, expect daytime highs today to top off in the
mid 50s (N) to mid 60s (S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Issued at 343 AM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

As the aforementioned low pressure system occludes, the rain and
thunderstorm chances will quickly taper off after Sun 06Z with
just some residual rain showers lingering across the northern
portions of the area on Sunday afternoon.

As colder air starts filtering into the northwestern counties late
Sunday night/early Monday morning, some light snow showers will
start to mix into the rain showers, but no accumulations are
expected.

Dry and colder air will be in place by Monday night with lows
dipping back into the upper 20s/low 30s. Expect winds to remain
gusty through Sunday night though with speeds up to 25 to 30 mph
out of the west/southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

Models and ensembles in general agreement that cyclonic flow will be
over the area with various short waves dropping through the base of
the trough. At the surface, high pressure will move from the Plains
to the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. Then, a frontal system is
expected to move in Thursday or Thursday night. The 00z ECMWF is the
quickest of the 00z GFS and 00z GEM. The blend seems to favor the
latter combo with chance PoPs Thursday night. Otherwise, with
limited moisture, the long term looks to be mostly dry and cold.

With the upper troughing well entrenched over the area, good
confidence in the well below blend temperatures with afternoon highs
mostly only in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 011800z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1231 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

MVFR to IFR ceilings will remain the rule until after 6z or so.
Scattered showers should become more widespread over the next few
hours at the sites, and expect to see some embedded thunderstorms
within them. Not a good handle on exact locations of lightning
strikes so kept a VCTS at the sites for several hours this
afternoon/evening. Winds will continue out of the southeast
initially at 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts at times, but shift
to southerly tonight and southwesterly Sunday. Could see some LLWS
picking up after around 8-10z after gusts dropped off, and this
will drop off as gusts pick up again Sunday by around 13-15z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/CP
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...CP

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1021 AM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-021530-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon,
Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington,
Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers,
Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Clinton, Newport,
Rockville, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville,
Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil,
Clay City, Spencer, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin,
Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Linton, Bloomfield, Bloomington,
Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee,
Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, Brownstown, and North Vernon
1021 AM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: There are chances for thunderstorms today and tonight. A few
of these storms could be strong to severe. Wind gusts of 35 mph are
expected on and off throughout the day as well.

Hazards: Heavy rainfall, lightning, damaging winds, large hail.

Timing: Thunderstorms are possible through 10 pm. The best chances
for strong to severe storms will be between 3 pm and 10 pm.

Discussion: A strong low pressure system will move toward central
Indiana bringing rain and chances for thunderstorms to the area.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible during the late
afternoon and evening hours when instability will be maximized.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: Gusty winds approaching 40 mph at times possible on Sunday.
Rain and snow mix possible Monday morning and Thursday/Thursday
night.

Discussion: Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend as a
strong low pressure system moves through the region. Gusty winds are
expected as a cold front moves through the state. After a
warmup...colder temperatures will return early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be possible this afternoon or evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

CP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 ESE FREEDOM           39.19N 86.78W
12/01/2018  M1.30 INCH       OWEN               IN   MESONET

1010 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MERIDIAN HILLS          39.89N 86.16W
12/01/2018  M1.29 INCH       MARION             IN   MESONET

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 S LACY                38.55N 86.79W
12/01/2018  M1.28 INCH       MARTIN             IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

1011 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NW HARRODSBURG        39.07N 86.63W
12/01/2018  M1.26 INCH       MONROE             IN   MESONET

1004 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE CLARKS HILL       40.28N 86.70W
12/01/2018  M1.24 INCH       CLINTON            IN   MESONET

1004 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW NORTH CROWS NEST   39.87N 86.17W
12/01/2018  M1.24 INCH       MARION             IN   MESONET

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE MCCORMICKS CREEK S 39.32N 86.73W
12/01/2018  M1.22 INCH       OWEN               IN   COCORAHS

1013 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW ELLETTSVILLE       39.24N 86.63W
12/01/2018  M1.22 INCH       MONROE             IN   MESONET

0950 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NW INDIAN SPRINGS     38.83N 86.80W
12/01/2018  M1.20 INCH       MARTIN             IN   MESONET

0957 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW OOLITIC            38.87N 86.57W
12/01/2018  M1.20 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   MESONET

0845 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S PLAINVILLE          38.79N 87.16W
12/01/2018  M1.15 INCH       DAVIESS            IN   COCORAHS

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONTGOMERY              38.66N 87.05W
12/01/2018  M1.13 INCH       DAVIESS            IN   COCORAHS

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW EDINBURGH          39.34N 85.99W
12/01/2018  M1.12 INCH       BARTHOLOMEW        IN   MESONET

1004 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE NEW MARKET        39.95N 86.90W
12/01/2018  M1.12 INCH       MONTGOMERY         IN   MESONET

1018 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE HELMSBURG         39.25N 86.26W
12/01/2018  M1.12 INCH       BROWN              IN   MESONET

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW PRAIRIETON        39.40N 87.50W
12/01/2018  M1.10 INCH       VIGO               IN   COCORAHS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE AVOCA              38.92N 86.53W
12/01/2018  M1.09 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   COCORAHS

0915 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE NOBLESVILLE        40.03N 86.00W
12/01/2018  M1.08 INCH       HAMILTON           IN   MESONET

1005 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E MARIETTA            39.44N 85.85W
12/01/2018  M1.08 INCH       SHELBY             IN   MESONET

1009 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N BARTLETTSVILLE      39.01N 86.44W
12/01/2018  M1.07 INCH       MONROE             IN   MESONET

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW COLUMBUS          39.20N 85.92W
12/01/2018  M1.05 INCH       BARTHOLOMEW        IN   MESONET

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW HARRODSBURG       38.97N 86.56W
12/01/2018  M1.04 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   COCORAHS

1005 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N KOKOMO              40.51N 86.12W
12/01/2018  M1.04 INCH       HOWARD             IN   MESONET

1018 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE GREENWOOD         39.60N 86.08W
12/01/2018  M1.03 INCH       JOHNSON            IN   MESONET

1020 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW LAKE SANTEE       39.40N 85.32W
12/01/2018  M1.03 INCH       DECATUR            IN   MESONET

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW SMITHVILLE        39.07N 86.53W
12/01/2018  M1.02 INCH       MONROE             IN   COCORAHS

1001 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE BEECH GROVE       39.69N 86.03W
12/01/2018  M1.02 INCH       MARION             IN   MESONET

1010 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE SULLIVAN          39.08N 87.35W
12/01/2018  M1.00 INCH       SULLIVAN           IN   MESONET

1015 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE BLOOMINGTON        39.14N 86.49W
12/01/2018  M1.00 INCH       MONROE             IN   MESONET

1011 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ENE BLOOMINGTON       39.17N 86.50W
12/01/2018  M0.99 INCH       MONROE             IN   MESONET

0730 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE TUNNELTON         38.79N 86.41W
12/01/2018  M0.98 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   COCORAHS

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNW SEYMOUR           38.98N 85.90W
12/01/2018  M0.97 INCH       JACKSON            IN   MESONET

1015 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW COLUMBUS          39.19N 85.99W
12/01/2018  M0.97 INCH       BARTHOLOMEW        IN   MESONET

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE WILLIAMS CREEK     39.89N 86.14W
12/01/2018  M0.96 INCH       MARION             IN   COCORAHS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E VINCENNES           38.68N 87.46W
12/01/2018  M0.95 INCH       KNOX               IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW REELSVILLE        39.54N 86.98W
12/01/2018  M0.95 INCH       PUTNAM             IN   MESONET

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE HOMECROFT         39.69N 86.12W
12/01/2018  M0.95 INCH       MARION             IN   MESONET

1010 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E SHEPARDSVILLE       39.61N 87.37W
12/01/2018  M0.95 INCH       VIGO               IN   MESONET

1013 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N FISHERS             39.98N 86.02W
12/01/2018  M0.95 INCH       HAMILTON           IN   MESONET

1015 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW CROWS NEST         39.87N 86.20W
12/01/2018  M0.95 INCH       MARION             IN   MESONET

0740 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLIAMS                38.80N 86.65W
12/01/2018  M0.92 INCH       LAWRENCE           IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE SPENCER            39.28N 86.76W
12/01/2018  M0.90 INCH       OWEN               IN   MESONET

&&