River Flood Warning 246, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
700 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

A warm and humid environment will be in place across central
Indiana through the weekend and into next week. A persistent
frontal boundary will remain in the area with central Indiana on
the warm side making the environment very conducive to diurnal
development. Some of the storms could become strong to severe this
evening and tonight. The pattern will then change around mid-week
when a strong cold front moves through the forecast area on
Wednesday night. This will result in an abrupt change from the
summer like weather back to more normal Fall temperatures late in
the extended period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /This Evening and Tonight/...
Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Pulled remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 525 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Pulled all but Howard and Tipton from the Watch.

Previous discussion follows...

Issued at 329 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

The main focus of the near term period will be the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms with a Slight Risk for severe
weather across the northwest two-thirds of central Indiana mainly
this evening.

Current radar mosaic shows showers and thunderstorms along a
strong frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma through northwest
Indiana. This is a strong temperature gradient with temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s in the warm sector (central IN) and
temperatures in the 60s north of the boundary. So far, some of the
storms have been severe, but it has been rather isolated in
nature. Nonetheless, the relatively unstable environment with CAPE
values in the 1200-1800 J/kg range will make this an area to
watch over the next several hours.

HRRR showers scattered shower/thunderstorm activity spreading
through central Indiana from northwest to southeast through the
evening hours, eventually breaking up after sunset. This seems to
coincide well with the diurnal threat. So, focus for severe
weather will primarily be over the northwest two-thirds of
central Indiana over the next several hours...the main threat
being damaging winds.

Tonight, anticipate the severe potential to wind down after
sunset, but there will still be chances for showers and sub severe
storms over the northwestern two-thirds of central Indiana once
again where forcing is best near aforementioned frontal boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Tuesday/...

Issued at 329 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Much of the same can be expected for tomorrow. Central Indiana
will remain in a warm, moist environment with southerly flow. Once
again, the best chances for any showers and thunderstorms will be
over the northwest two-thirds of central Indiana...closest to
frontal boundary. Meanwhile, the southeastern third of central
Indiana can expect mainly dry conditions. However, the drier air
will start working its way northward on Sunday night as the high
pressure over the Delmarva/Southeast U.S. shifts a bit. So, expect
dry conditions over all of central Indiana by Mon 06Z.

Monday and Tuesday, the high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
will continue with dewpoints in the 60s. With the aforementioned
frontal boundary a little farther north though, shower and
thunderstorm chances will be reduced across most of the forecast
area. The exception will be low chances across the northernmost
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Models and ensembles in reasonable agreement that a strong cold
front will move through Wednesday night. Very warm, moist and
unstable air along and ahead of the system combined with the strong
dynamics will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area
next Wednesday and Wednesday night. Heavy rain will be possible.

After that, the well above normal airmass will be replaced by a
below normal one for late next week and weekend.

There will also be a threat for more showers, but models and
ensembles are not in good agreement with the timing, so will accept
the blend with low confidence in timing. Brought more shower chances
in by late next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 070000Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 701 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Restrictions possible at KLAF late tonight and Sunday morning and
in and around convection...otherwise VFR conditions expected.

Broken line of convection currently impact KIND at just shy of 23Z
but expect the cells to be east of KIND by 00Z. Any redeveloping
convection later this evening into the overnight should refocus
back closer to the frontal boundary in north central Indiana with
KLAF likely being the only terminal potentially affected. MVFR
ceilings are likely to develop at KLAF overnight with perhaps
brief periods with IFR conditions early Sunday as well. Further
south...expect skies will become mainly clear overnight with light
southerly winds.

The frontal boundary will remain draped across north central
Illinois and Indiana on Sunday with any convective development
focused in the vicinity of the boundary. Again...KLAF would be the
most likely of the terminals to be impacted by any storms Sunday
afternoon...but plan on leaving any precip mention out at this
time with low confidence. Dry conditions with scattered clouds are
expected further south at KBMG...KHUF and KIND Sunday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067-072030-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, and Vincennes
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Hazards: Lightning, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Timing: This evening and tonight.

Discussion: A front will remain generally just north of the area
through tonight.  Some storms could become strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms will be possible at times for all or parts of
the area on Sunday and again periodically from Monday through
Friday. While gusty winds...heavy rainfall and lightning will be
possible with thunderstorms...severe storms are not expected at this
time.

Heat indices will peak in the lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday.

Discussion: A more active weather pattern is expected this weekend
and through next week with a frontal boundary moving back and forth
across the area. The front should finally shift east of the area late
week with cooler temperatures arriving.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ068>072-072030-
Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Bedford and Seymour
430 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Hazards: Lightning, heavy rainfall, gusty winds.

Timing: Through this evening and tonight.

Discussion: A front will remain north of the area through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms will be possible at times for all or parts of
the area on Sunday and again at times from Monday through Friday.
While gusty winds...heavy rainfall and lightning will be possible
with thunderstorms...severe storms are not expected at this time.

Heat indices will peak in the lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday.

Discussion: A more active weather pattern is expected this weekend
and through next week with a frontal boundary moving back and forth
across the area. The front should finally shift east of the area late
week with cooler temperatures arriving.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
453 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018

INZ021-030-031-038-062130-
Howard IN-Clinton IN-Tipton IN-Carroll IN-
453 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN
CLINTON...WESTERN HOWARD AND NORTHWESTERN TIPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Logansport to 10 miles
southwest of Walton to 10 miles east of Delphi to 9 miles north of
Frankfort. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kokomo, Russiaville, Burlington and Indian Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Indianapolis.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central and north central Indiana.

LAT...LON 4068 8637 4056 8637 4056 8605 4036 8611
      4035 8656 4051 8648 4059 8648 4069 8646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 260DEG 32KT 4064 8642 4058 8642 4056 8647 4049
8645 4042 8647

MRD/MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
456 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW DAYTON            40.42N 86.80W
10/06/2018                   TIPPECANOE         IN   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CENTER REPORTS LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN NEAR
            COUNTY ROAD 550 EAST. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
524 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE BURLINGTON        40.49N 86.35W
10/06/2018                   HOWARD             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30 FOOT TALL HEALTHY TREE BLOWN OVER. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
533 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018

INZ031-038-040-062200-
Howard IN-Tipton IN-Madison IN-
533 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON...EASTERN
HOWARD AND NORTHERN TIPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 533 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sweetser to near Swayzee to near Tipton.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tipton, Windfall, Greentown and Sharpsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central Indiana.

LAT...LON 4056 8586 4038 8586 4038 8565 4037 8565
      4026 8618 4051 8604 4057 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 247DEG 39KT 4056 8588 4049 8591 4031 8600

MRD/MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
535 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LAFAYETTE         40.40N 86.83W
10/06/2018                   TIPPECANOE         IN   PUBLIC

            LARGE HEALTHY TREE SNAPPED NEAR BASE.

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
722 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW LAFAYETTE          40.39N 86.90W
10/06/2018  E50 MPH          TIPPECANOE         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0423 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW DAYTON            40.42N 86.80W
10/06/2018                   TIPPECANOE         IN   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CENTER REPORTS LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN NEAR
            COUNTY ROAD 550 EAST. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

0428 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LAFAYETTE         40.40N 86.83W
10/06/2018                   TIPPECANOE         IN   PUBLIC

            LARGE HEALTHY TREE SNAPPED NEAR BASE.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE BURLINGTON        40.49N 86.35W
10/06/2018                   HOWARD             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30 FOOT TALL HEALTHY TREE BLOWN OVER. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&