River Flood Warning 245, NWS Indianapolis, IN

681 
WGUS83 KIND 061733
FLSIND
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
133 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

...The Flood Warning is no longer in effect for a portion of the
following waterway in Indiana...

  Wildcat Creek...

.The Wildcat Creek near Lafayette has fallen below flood stage in 
central Indiana.


Precautionary/Preparedness Actions...

Be alert to flood debris on previously flooded roads. Keep children 
away from flooded areas. Recreational and agricultural interests 
should remain alert to changing river conditions.

For detailed flood information go to weather.gov/ind on the web and 
click on rivers and lakes.



INC157-061803-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0245.000000T0000Z-181006T1800Z/
/LYTI3.1.ER.181006T1230Z.181006T1230Z.181006T1230Z.NO/
133 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Wildcat Creek near Lafayette.
* At 12:45 PM Saturday the stage was 9.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at Sat 08:30 AM.
* Forecast...It will continue to fall.


&&

LAT...LON 4047 8645 4042 8681 4046 8689 4048 8687
      4045 8682 4050 8645             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
640 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

A warm front is expected to linger across northwest Indiana today.
Central Indiana will remain on the south and warm side of this
front through the weekend and into the work week. Southerly winds
are expected to bring warm and humid gulf air to Central
Indiana...along with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
today and again on Sunday.

The warm front is expected to push farther north on
Monday...resulting in Central Indiana being even deeper engulfed
in warm and humid air.

Relief is expected on Wednesday night and Thursday as as a cold
front crosses the state and temperatures return closer to seasonal
normals. Until then...expect warm and humid weather with plenty of
chances for showers or storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...

Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Surface analysis early this morning shows a warm front across
Central Illinois to Central Indiana. Dew points across Central
Indiana were in the humid upper 60s to near 70. GOES16 shows a
plume of tropical moisture stretching from Texas to Kansas and
then to southeast Wisconsin. Radar shows scattered showers north
of the frontal boundary close to the plume of tropical moisture
aloft.

Models suggest the tropical plume to remain to the northwest of
Indiana today while the frontal boundary slowly drifts northeast
toward NW Indiana. Several embedded short waves are suggested to
push northeast within the tropical flow...however timing and
confidence on these features remain rather low. Meanwhile time
heights suggest saturated lower levels and forecast soundings show
steep lapse rates with favorable convective temperatures...CAPE
over 1500 J/KG and Pwats over 1.51. Thus daytime heating alone
should be able to pop a few isolated showers or storms...given
proximity to any approaching short waves...particularly across the
northwest. Thus will keep pops today at or above the forecast
builder blends...particularly across the northwest as those
locations will be close to the better forcing dynamics. Given the
expected sunshine and time within the warm sector will trend temps
at or above the forecast builder blends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

The GFS hints at a similar set up tonight through Sunday Night.
The highly amplified upper flow remains in place across the
United States with strong ridging in place across the eastern half
of the country and a deep trough in place across the west. The
resultant SW flow into Indiana will continue to allow warm and
humid gulf air to arrive in central Indiana. The GFS and NAM
suggest the warm front will continue to linger near NW Indiana
through Sunday Night. Thus this will keep Central Indiana embedded
within the warm sector with little chance in the overall air
mass. Again forecast soundings show steep lapse rates on Sunday
afternoon with attainable convective temperatures and CAPE over
1500 J/KG. Again the upper flow remains unchanged...thus will
continue with a very persistence type forecast through Sunday
Night. Convection within the warm sector away from the upper flow
should wane significantly as the daytime heating forcing dynamic
is lost. Again...best pops will be to the northwest.

On Sunday night through Monday night the GFS and NAm suggest a
slight pivot within the ridge axis circulating over the east
coast. This will allow the ridge axis to adjust slightly more
north on Sunday Night through Monday night....shifting the moist
upper flow farther north and west...away from Indiana. The pesky
warm front is then pushed much farther north also...reaching
central Michigan and northern Wisconsin. Forecast soundings on
Monday respond with a somewhat drier column as pwats fall. Thus
will try to trend toward a dry forecast late sunday night through
Monday night as some of our best forcing will be lost along with
an upper flow of moisture.

Again through the period as Indiana will be deeply engulfed in
warm and humid gulf air...will trend daily temps at or above the
forecast builder blends.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Ensembles in good agreement with the overall weather pattern during
this period. Mid level anticyclone centered over the Mid Atlantic
region will get suppressed to the southeast by the middle of next
week as significant short wave energy moves through the Plains
and into the western Great Lakes.

Will keep PoPs going during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame
to cover the passage of the upper trough and surface cold front. At
this point, it appears the highest threat for precipitation will be
around Wednesday.

There is quite a bit of variance among the ensembles as to the
timing of the next trough late next week. Some of the members bring
in a precipitation threat as early as Friday afternoon, while others
hold off until after this forecast period. For now, will some chance
PoPs to the western zones for next Friday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 061200Z TAFS/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

Short term model data suggest a potential upper vorticity lobe and
outflow emanating from remnant convection off to the northwest
may begin moving into the local area by the midday hours today.
This may be a focus for scattered convection in the vicinity of
the terminals from the midday hours through the afternoon. Brief
IFR visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds possible in
and near heavier cells. CB bases 025-030.

Otherwise, some diurnal cloud based 025-030 expected to develop
towards the midday hours. Surface winds 180-200 degrees at 5-8 kts
early this morning will gradually veer around to 220-240 degrees
this afternoon. Occasional surface gusts around 18 kts possible this
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
344 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-070745-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
344 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Hazards: Lightning, heavy rainfall, gusty winds.

Timing: Through today and tonight.

Discussion: A Warm front will lift north across Central Indiana
through tonight...bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: Thunderstorms will be possible at times for all or parts of
the area on Sunday and again on Tuesday through Thursday. While
gusty winds...heavy rainfall and lightning will be possible with
thunderstorms...severe storms are not expected at this time.

Heat indices will peak in the lower 90s Saturday through Tuesday.

Discussion: A more active weather pattern is expected this weekend
and through the middle of next week with a frontal boundary moving
back and forth across the area. The front should finally shift east
of the area late week with cooler temperatures arriving.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PUMA