River Flood Warning 118, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
643 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

A progressive upper flow will occur through the middle of next week
...this will result in a series of weather systems which will affect
our weather through this weekend and on into next week.

Low pressure was over New England as an upper trough was moving
across the upper midwest and western great lakes.   High pressure
over the plains will bring a period of dry weather by tonight.

Then a cold front will bring showers our way by Saturday afternoon.
This will be followed by another pressure system which will affect
us early next week.

In the long term...low pressure will affect us late Monday into
Tuesday and another system will affect us again next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 322 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Radar indicated light showers were still occurring over the southeast
half of our forecast area at 07Z.  Although they were diminishing
slowly overnight.   Latest models indicate a few light showers
may linger over southeast Indiana this morning as an upper
trough moves east across our region.  Will add low chance POPs to
our southeast sections mainly this morning.

Weather depiction indicates low clouds have cleared out over
northwest Indiana and northern and central Illinois...but lots of
mid/high clouds remain.  Model soundings indicate a lessening of low
level moisture today.   However with lots of mid/high clouds slowed
down clearing a little today.    This may hold down temperatures
slightly as cold advection occurs.

Went with highs from middle and upper 40s north to the lower 50s
southwest.   Tonight will become mostly clear as high pressure
ridge moves east across our area.    Went with a MOS blend on
lows tonight with lows in the lower to middle 30s and some upper 30s
over southwest sections.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow through Sunday night/...

Issued at 322 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Low pressure will move east across the great lakes late Saturday
and Saturday evening as a cold front moves east across Indiana.
Models indicate showers will become likely by Saturday afternoon and
then end Saturday evening as the cold front moves on to the east and
another area of high pressure builds into the southern great lakes
by Sunday.

An upper disturbance will move east across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys late Sunday and model consensus indicates light showers may
affect southern parts of our region Sunday afternoon.   Went with
chance POPS south of I70 mainly Sunday afternoon and dry over rest of
our region.  Any showers across our south will end Sunday evening as
that upper disturbance moves on to the east and high pressure remains
over the southern great lakes and northern Indiana.

Stayed close to a MOS blend on temperatures with highs in the 50s
Saturday and 40 to 45 Sunday.   Lows will range from the middle 20s
north to lower 30s south Saturday night and middle to upper 20s
Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Ensembles suggest a progressive long wave trough will be moving
through the local area towards the middle of next week.

Will go with PoPs from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night to
cover this feature. Long range operational models suggest
precipitable waters by Monday and Tuesday will become very high
relative to the time of year, so heavy rainfall may become an
issue early next week.

Ensembles suggest another disturbance may move into the area by
next Thursday, resulting in some chance PoPs at that time.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 301200Z TAFS/...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

Lingering rain in the KIND/KBMG vicinity should be over at those
terminals by or shortly after issuance time.

Otherwise, back edge of MVFR ceilings continue to drop south
through the local area. What is left of these ceilings expected to
scatter out by the midday hours today.

Surface winds 330-360 degrees at 8-12 kts this morning will
gradually back around to 280-300 degrees at 6-8 kts by late this
afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
422 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
422 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Hazards: None.

Timing: None.

Discussion: Some showers are possible today, especially over parts of
southeast Indiana, as a low pressure system pulls off to the east.
Dry weather is expected tonight as high pressure builds in.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Outlook: Thunderstorm activity is possible from Monday night through
Tuesday night of next week. Severe storms are not expected at this
time, however heavy rainfall is possible.

Discussion: Several systems will impact the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes through the middle of next week, with periodic chances for
showers. The strongest system at this time looks to affect the area
from Monday night through Tuesday night, with the potential for
thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind