Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
central Illinois this afternoon...with a broken line of convection
further west across central Iowa in association with a vigorous
upper low. As the low pivots eastward, stronger synoptic forcing
will help increase the areal coverage of convection across the
KILX CWA from mid-evening through the overnight hours. With the
850mb jet streak increasing to 20-30kt and orienting itself toward
east-central and southeast Illinois after midnight, it appears the
greatest coverage of storms will materialize east of I-55
overnight. Based on latest CAMs, have started the evening with
just low chance PoPs...then have increased to high chance to
likely west of I-55 toward midnight. After midnight, have
shifted the likely PoPs to east of the I-55 corridor as the LLJ
cranks up. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the E/SE Friday
morning, then will taper off from west to east toward midday.
Additional scattered activity will be possible through the
afternoon into the early evening as the upper low tracks through
the region. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 80s.
Once the low pushes off to the east, subsidence on its back side
will result in a return to dry conditions across the board by
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Warm and dry weather will be the rule over the upcoming weekend,
with high temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s both
Saturday and Sunday. The next significant chance for rain will
hold off until late Sunday night into Monday as yet another
vigorous short-wave trough digs into the Midwest. Based on timing
of this wave, have gone with likely PoPs for showers/thunder
Monday afternoon. Once this wave passes, a few lingering showers
will be possible into Tuesday...followed by cooler/drier weather
for the middle of next week. Highs will drop into the middle to
upper 70s for Tuesday and Wednesday before moderating to the lower
80s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are moving into areas of
central IL west of I-55 this evening. These thunderstorms will be
the main aviation impact initially tonight as they slowly cross
eastward through the area. Isolated MVFR or worse vsby and cigs as
well as strong gusty winds may be associated with any
thunderstorms. Overnight as thunderstorms diminish, fog will
develop after 06Z, and have included IFR vsby at KPIA, and MVFR at
sites farther southeast, until 14Z. Friday after 16-17Z,
additional thunderstorms will be possible, with higher
probabilities along the I-74 corridor terminals. Winds SW under 10
kts, becoming light and variable overnight, then shifting to NW
under 10 kts Friday after 15Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
329 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-171100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-
De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Effingham-Fulton-Jasper-Knox-Lawrence-Logan-
Macon-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-
Richland-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-
Woodford-
329 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Scattered strong to severe storms are possible tonight as a
weather system moves across the state. A few of the storms tonight
could produce strong wind gusts, as well as locally heavy rainfall
and deadly lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday. No severe weather
is expected at this time. There will be periodic chances for
thunderstorms again starting Sunday night and continuing into
Tuesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

Auten

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
503 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     N LEWISTOWN             40.40N 90.16W
08/16/2018                   FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FUNNEL SIGHTED, REPEATEDLY LOWERING TOWARD GROUND.

&&

37

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
600 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TORNADO          2 SE SMITHFIELD         40.45N 90.27W
08/16/2018                   FULTON             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN DAMAGING OUTBUILDING AND ROOF AND
            SIDING OF HOUSE.

&&

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
801 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

ILZ036-040-170130-
Schuyler-Fulton-
801 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND
NORTHEASTERN SCHUYLER COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vermont, or 13 miles north of Rushville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Astoria, Vermont, Ipava, Table Grove, Bluff City and Ray.

LAT...LON 4028 9047 4027 9045 4038 9044 4033 9019
      4016 9021 4014 9056 4028 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 297DEG 23KT 4031 9049

Auten