Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Lincoln, IL

040 
WWUS53 KILX 012112
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
312 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

ILC169-012122-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-181201T2145Z/
Schuyler-
312 PM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN SCHUYLER COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for west central
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4028 9089 4028 9064 4018 9074 4020 9090
      4029 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 209DEG 24KT 4032 9072 

$$

SB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
209 PM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

Will be concise as convection is developing in west central IL.

Have issued a dense fog advisory through this evening for
Fulton/Knox/Stark counties as higher dewpoints advecting over
remaining wet/melting snowpack has dropped visibilities below 1/4
mile at GBG and MQB. Gradual improvement expected later this
evening after passage of occluded front.

Main severe weather potential is now focused from west central IL
east to near I-55 through 00Z. Warm front has now pushed north to
near I-74 with southeast winds 55F+ dewpoints south of the front.
18Z KILX sounding featured steep mid level lapse rates, strong
low to mid level wind shear, and low freezing level. As lift
increases ahead of the approaching occluded front and associated
shortwave, scattered strong to severe low-topped storms will
impact the western half of the CWA into early evening. All severe
weather modes are in play with damaging wind gusts and hail the
primary threats. Strong low level wind shear will favor rotating
storms with a few brief tornadoes possible especially this
afternoon where storms near the warm front and increased SRH.
These storms will be fast movers with 40-50 kt flow in the storm
bearing layer. The severe threat will diminish quickly this
evening as storms push though the northern CWA.

After a break in precip chances later this evening, scattered
showers will return to the northwest half of the CWA later tonight
and on Sunday, as a surface trough lingers in this area beneath
cyclonic flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

Scattered showers in cyclonic flow will change to light snow
Sunday night and Monday as colder air filters in from the
northwest.  No accumulations expected.

Dry but cold weather will dominate the Midwest for Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure shifts south of the area. 850 mb temps
dip to -10C and will keep highs several degrees below normal.

Next precip chances arrive Thursday with a cold front. Moisture
and thermal profiles suggest mainly snow with minor accumulations
possible. Arctic high behind the front will again drop readings
well below normal for Friday and Saturday. Potential for next
winter wx maker next weekend for parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley
will bear watching.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

Deep low pressure tracking into northern Illinois by Sunday
morning, will bring a challenging set of TAFs to the area.
Currently a warm front is pushing north through central IL, which
will tend to scatter out the lower ceilings for the I-72 sites
this afternoon. Farther north, IFR ceiling should hold along
with the potential for reduced visibility in fog. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible into mid
afternoon. A better chance for thunderstorms will develop later
this afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching cold front.
This will bring scattered thunderstorms some of which will have
gusty winds and small hail. These storms will shift northeast of
the area this evening with MVFR to VFR ceilings expected behind
the front. Gusty southeast winds will gradually lose gusts towards
evening, and switch to the southwest after the frontal passage. As
the pressure gradient tightens again Sunday morning, gusts will
return.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ027-028-036.

&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM...25
AVIATION...25

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1049 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

ILZ027>030-036-021200-
Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Peoria-Stark-
1049 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns. A
brief tornado touchdown cannot be ruled out, mainly south of I-74.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

The combination of the weekend rain, and melting snow, will result
in rises on area rivers. Minor flooding will occur early in the
new week on the Spoon River.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening. The
most likely time frame is 3 pm to 9 pm.

ILZ031-037-038-040>057-061-021200-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon-
Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-
Shelby-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
1049 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns.
Brief tornado touchdowns cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.
West of I-55, this is most likely between 3 pm and 7 pm. East of
I-55, the most likely time frame is 6 pm to 9 pm

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-021200-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
1049 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns. An
isolated tornado touchdown cannot be ruled out, although this
would be more likely west of I-57.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

River levels will rise in response to the weekend rainfall. Minor
flooding may occur along parts of the Wabash and Little Wabash
Rivers early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening. The most likely
time frame is 5 pm to 9 pm.

Auten

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1116 AM CST SAT DEC 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E OLNEY               38.73N 88.07W
12/01/2018  M1.06 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   COCORAHS

&&

JRP