Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Lincoln, IL

972 
WWUS53 KILX 200235
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
935 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

ILC171-200245-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0116.000000T0000Z-180720T0300Z/
Scott-
935 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
west central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3965 9061 3952 9030 3952 9058 3956 9057
      3963 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 314DEG 31KT 3943 9044 

$$

SB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
911 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Strong low pressure system with severe thunderstorms developing in
the warm sector in west central IL. As in intense upper level jet
and developing low level jet develop into central IL, scattered
thunderstorms will develop overnight. Strong surface based
instability of this evening will diminish somewhat overnight, but
severe weather threat looks to continue into the first few hours
after midnight and a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until
2 a.m. from roughly Fulton county to Shelby county southwestward.
Main severe weather threats are locally damaging winds over 60 mph
and isolated hail over 1 inch diameter. Have updated PoPs for
first few hours to account for less thunderstorm coverage east of
I-55, but scattered overnight coverage across the area looks to
be good and no major changes at this time. Lows a warm and humid
70 degrees or so. Winds will feature a light southerly breeze,
switching toward westerly and becoming increasingly breeze by
morning mainly west of I-55.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

A weak band of showers/storms located from Springfield to the
WI/IL border continues to move to the northeast this afternoon. An
upper level low is currently located over southern Minnesota, and
will slide southeastward towards northern Illinois over the next
couple days.

Forecast guidance continues to struggle with the ongoing
convection this afternoon, which complicates the forecast for
tonight. There are significant differences between the 12z
GFS/ECM/NAM and the past few runs of the CAMs. GFS/ECM continue
to be bullish, and develop scattered to widespread convection in
Iowa before storms spread into the western CWA after 00z tonight.
This solution has support from the past several runs of the HRRR.
On the other hand, the 12z NAM and most CAMs keep most of the CWA
dry through most of tonight and Friday. For now, expect at least
some convective development with the highest PoPs in the northern
CWA closer to the upper level low. Given a sheared (>30 kts) and
modestly unstable (>1000 J/kg) environment, at least a conditional
severe threat exists.

By Friday, considerable uncertainty remains regarding convective
evolution. A cold front should be progressing through the CWA
Friday morning, with MLCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg ahead of
the front. Combined with 30-45 kts of effective shear, severe
thunderstorms are likely...though model trends have shifted this
threat southeast of our forecast area... south of I-70 towards
IN/KY/TN. Convective trends will need to be monitored through
tonight for any changes.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Upper level low to track across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio
river valley over the weekend. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are
possible during the daytime hours through Tuesday, especially
east of I-55. Temperatures will likely stay near or below normal,
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Upper level low will finally drift south towards the gulf coast
by mid-week. Ridge will begin to build over the western U.S.,
keeping temperatures seasonable through the end of next week.
Convection chances should remain low during the middle of next
week with slight chances of showers/thunderstorms in southeast IL
on Tue and Wed during the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 756 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to expand into central IL
this evening, affecting central IL terminals through early
morning. Strong gusty winds will be possible with any
thunderstorms, and isolated MVFR or worse conditions as well. At
this point, KSPI is likely to be affected first by around 02Z,
then expanding northeastward to the other terminals by 05-07Z.
Included VCTS in TAFs to account for this timing, although
explicit timing of individual thunderstorms will need to be
updated later. Otherwise, conditions primarily VFR with generally
SCT-BKN cloud cover 4000-5000 AGL. Winds S around 10 kts with some
higher gusts overnight, shifting to westerly during the day
Friday, and increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...37
SHORT TERM...Hiris/07
LONG TERM...Hiris/07
AVIATION...37

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
401 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

ILZ027-029-036-037-040>042-047>051-202115-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Sangamon-
Schuyler-Scott-Tazewell-
401 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorm chances will be present through tonight. The line of
thunderstorms that arrives this evening could be severe. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats, but an isolated
tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorm chances will linger into the weekend. A few strong
storms are possible Friday afternoon east of the Illinois river.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening between 7 pm and
10 pm.

ILZ028-030-031-038-043-044-052>054-061-066-071-202115-
Christian-Clay-De Witt-Effingham-Macon-Marshall-McLean-Moultrie-
Piatt-Shelby-Stark-Woodford-
401 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorm chances will be present through tonight. A few of
the thunderstorms this evening could be strong to severe. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats, but an isolated
tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorm chances will linger into the weekend. A few strong
storms are possible Friday afternoon east of the Illinois river.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening between 8 pm and
midnight.

ILZ045-046-055>057-062-063-067-068-072-073-202115-
Champaign-Clark-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-Edgar-Jasper-
Lawrence-Richland-Vermilion-
401 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Thunderstorms will be possible later this evening and overnight.
Organized severe storms are not anticipated, but the stronger
storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Thunderstorm chances will linger into the weekend. A few severe
storms are possible Friday afternoon, especially east of
Interstate 57. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary
threats, but an isolated tornado is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

Shimon