Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
256 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Line of storms developing to the southwest will quickly move
northeast and track over eastern and southeast Illinois late
this afternoon and early this evening. However, the wrap
around precipitation associated with the 500 mb trough will
move across the northern part of the state. This will bring
a small chance of precipitation to the extreme northern parts
of the county warning area later this evening and into the
overnight hours. P-type will be rain to start with but gradually
change to light snow. QPF amounts look to be on the light side so
any snow accumulation will be minor and mainly in the extreme
northern sections of Stark county.

A cloudy sky should hold over the area through the evening hours
but then gradually clear late tonight through tomorrow as the 500
mb trof shifts off to our east. As the deepening surface low
pushes away from the area, we look for winds to become quite gusty
through tonight with gusts as high as 35 mph at times across most
of the forecast area. Dry weather is expected tomorrow but despite
some sunshine, especially in the afternoon, northwest winds will
bring in another push of cool air for early April with highs only
expected to rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

A rather cool and unsettled weather pattern for the area through
this period with several disturbances expected to bring precipitation
across the area. High pressure will be centered over our area
Thursday evening but shift off to our east by Friday morning. A
warm front will develop to our west as the next weather system
takes shape across the Plains with low chance POPs holding mainly
across the north half of the forecast area for Thursday into Thu
evening. Behind the system for late Thursday night into Friday,
another cool Canadian high builds southeast into the Midwest with
the frontal system that brings the low chance POPs to part of the
area on Thursday settling south to the Ohio River Valley. Another
low amplitude wave will shift southeast and induce low pressure
along the boundary well to our south on Friday bringing rain/snow
chances to about the southern half of the forecast area, a little
northward shift from previous forecasts with mainly rain chances
during the day and rain over to light snow at night.

The next system will be already shifting southeast out of the
Plains later Sunday into Sunday night bringing another threat for
light rain/snow to the forecast area along with a continuation of
the unseasonably cool temperatures. Coolest temperatures during
this period look to be on Friday when morning lows dip into the
teens to middle 20s, while afternoon highs struggle to push
through the mid 30s north to the mid to upper 40s south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Low pressure area located south Quincy is forecast to lift
northeast over the area this afternoon with a warm front extending
to the east across parts of eastern Illinois. Areas south of the
front have begun to improve as far as vis, but cigs remain in the
IFR category right now. Expecting most sites to get above IFR this
afternoon as the system moves northeast. However, these MVFR or
IFR cigs will continue into the night and early morning hours as
the 500mb trough rotates through the area later tonight. VCSH will
be an issue this afternoon around the low and front while
thunderstorms could be possible at some sites, most of the storms
will remain south of all TAF sites. Most of precip will be done
later this afternoon. So biggest issue with TAFs will be cigs and
wind shifts as the system lifts northeast across some of the TAF
sites.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Auten

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
304 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

ILZ027>031-037-041100-
Knox-Marshall-Peoria-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
304 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be required.

ILZ036-040-041-047-049-050-041100-
Cass-Fulton-Mason-Morgan-Schuyler-Scott-
304 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Flooding will continue along the Illinois River from Havana
to near Beardstown for at least the next few days. Otherwise, no
hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be required.

ILZ038-042-043-048-051>053-041100-
Christian-De Witt-Logan-Macon-McLean-Menard-Sangamon-
304 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this late afternoon, in areas
east of I-55. While a few of them may produce hail and gusty
winds, the main severe weather threat will be further southeast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed through late afternoon.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061-041100-
Champaign-Coles-Douglas-Edgar-Moultrie-Piatt-Shelby-Vermilion-
304 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Occasional thunderstorms will occur through sunset. Some of the
storms may be severe. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
but large hail and an isolated tornado are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 7 pm.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-041100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
304 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Occasional thunderstorms will continue into this evening. Some of
the storms will be severe. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and
large hail are the primary threats.

Flooding will continue for the next several days along portions
of the Wabash, Little Wabash and Embarras rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed, mainly between 4 PM and 7 PM.

Geelhart

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1253 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE PARIS             39.67N 87.66W
04/03/2018  M3.50 INCH       EDGAR              IL   COCORAHS

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1257 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEOGA                   39.32N 88.45W
04/03/2018  M2.70 INCH       CUMBERLAND         IL   MESONET

            EVENT TOTAL SO FAR

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1258 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S SULLIVAN            39.55N 88.61W
04/03/2018  M1.52 INCH       MOULTRIE           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FLORA                   38.67N 88.48W
04/03/2018  M1.51 INCH       CLAY               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WINDSOR                 39.44N 88.60W
04/03/2018  M1.54 INCH       SHELBY             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
04/03/2018  M1.33 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HUTSONVILLE             39.11N 87.66W
04/03/2018  M1.45 INCH       CRAWFORD           IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MODE                    39.27N 88.74W
04/03/2018  M1.32 INCH       SHELBY             IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ESE CHRISMAN          39.79N 87.62W
04/03/2018  E1.31 INCH       EDGAR              IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BEECHER CITY            39.19N 88.79W
04/03/2018  M1.92 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PANA                    39.39N 89.08W
04/03/2018  M1.19 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SHELBYVILLE             39.41N 88.80W
04/03/2018  M2.05 INCH       SHELBY             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE OLNEY              38.74N 88.07W
04/03/2018  M1.25 INCH       RICHLAND           IL   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SE EFFINGHAM            39.12N 88.55W
04/03/2018  M1.18 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CASEY                   39.30N 87.99W
04/03/2018  M1.63 INCH       CLARK              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W ARTHUR              39.72N 88.49W
04/03/2018  M1.38 INCH       MOULTRIE           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MATTOON                 39.48N 88.37W
04/03/2018  M1.94 INCH       COLES              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       W MATTOON               39.48N 88.37W
04/03/2018  M2.60 INCH       COLES              IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WANDTV

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NEOGA                   39.32N 88.45W
04/03/2018  M2.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL

0845 AM     HAIL             5 SW MATTOON            39.43N 88.43W
04/03/2018  M0.88 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

0847 AM     HAIL             CHARLESTON              39.48N 88.18W
04/03/2018  M1.00 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

0850 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARLESTON              39.48N 88.18W
04/03/2018                   COLES              IL   MESONET

            TOWN BRANCH OVERBANK...WATER FLOWING OVER 8TH STREET

0953 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
04/03/2018  M2.72 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

            6 HOUR TOTAL

0958 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CHARLESTON              39.48N 88.18W
04/03/2018  M6.50 INCH       COLES              IL   MESONET

            EVENT TOTAL SO FAR. 3.00 INCHES IN PAST HOUR AND 45
            MINUTES.

1010 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E MATTOON             39.48N 88.33W
04/03/2018                   COLES              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IL-316 BETWEEN MATTOON AND CHARLESTON CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
            WATER. SOME ROADS CLOSED IN BOTH MATTOON AND CHARLESTON
            DUE TO HIGH WATER.

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NEOGA                   39.32N 88.45W
04/03/2018  M2.70 INCH       CUMBERLAND         IL   MESONET

            EVENT TOTAL SO FAR

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE PARIS             39.67N 87.66W
04/03/2018  M3.50 INCH       EDGAR              IL   COCORAHS

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
234 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COLES COUNTY AIRPORT    39.48N 88.28W
04/03/2018  M4.30 INCH       COLES              IL   ASOS

            18-HOUR TOTAL...2.97 INCHES THE PAST 6 HOURS.

&&

EJL