Alert archive / Ohio / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

May 31, 2018Shelby County, Ohio

NWS Wilmington, OH issued this special weather statement at May 31, 2018, 5:13 PM EDT for Shelby County, Ohio. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2018, 5:13 PM EDT (21:13 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2018, 5:45 PM EDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Wilmington, OH

County Shelby County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 31, 4:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 4:01 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
401 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Ohio
Valley through Friday, resulting in a continued chance of
thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will provide for dry
conditions on Saturday before another disturbance brings more
storms on Sunday and Monday. High pressure will then build in
for the remainder of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A convective bowing segment pushing into the region from the
southwest, along with a line of storms developing over Indiana
moving east into Ohio will keep the CWA under a threat of storms
this evening. Strong initial burst of wind with the bowing
segment will then see showers with scattered thunder behind it
for a few hours. This feature is being driven by the cold pool
and entering into a receptive airmass - at least for the next
few hours. By evening, the feature will outrun the cold pool
driving it and lose much of its punch as it crosses into eastern
sections of the CWA and areas near to the I-70 corridor.

Models are not resolving the situation well at all over the
region today and this evening, so current conditions were pushed
forward in time and blended towards earlier forecasts.
Temperatures will be modified strongly by rain-cooled air this
late day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While there will be numerous upper level vorticity maxima over
the region, the axis of the trough will nose into western CWA by
daybreak Friday, be along the I-71 corridor by 18Z, then be east
and out of the area by evening. Surface front will lag behind
this and a few lingering showers or thunderstorms may persist
over the CWA Friday evening and show a decrease in coverage and
intensity overnight, exiting to the southeast by daybreak.
Surface front will be over the Ohio River towards midnight with
rapidly improving conditions overnight.

Tonight's low temperatures will drop to 67-69 degrees across the
board, and tomorrow's highs will be muted to be within a few
degrees of 80. Cooler air will result behind the surface frontal
passage by Saturday morning, ranging from the upper 50s to
around 60 in the I-70 corridor, to the middle 60s over Kentucky
and immediate Ohio River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will move into the region on
Saturday. Some models try to develop a few instability showers near
our eastern border, but have decided to keep a dry forecast for now.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

It now appears that s/wv energy will dig southeast in the northwest
flow aloft, and affect the region late Saturday night into Sunday.
This will be associated with a cold front, which will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 50s to the mid
60s, highs again will generally be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

The GFS is more of an outlier as we head into the first part of next
week, digging an upper level low faster and farther south into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Have leaned more toward the ECMWF/CMC
which keep the low farther north and a little slower in its digging.
In any case, a weak front should drop south through the region on
Tuesday, with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will cool some into the 75 to 80 degree range Monday
into Tuesday.

For the remainder of the extended, Wednesday and Thursday, under a
northwest flow aloft and generalized surface high pressure, dry
weather is expected. Highs 75 to 80 on Wednesday will warm slightly
by Thursday into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail as some lower MVFR stratus breaks
apart from earlier this morning. Upstream storms will nose into
southern CWA and continue this evening. Cores of storms will
produce LIFR vsbys but the bulk of activity today will be
scattered over the TAF sites, with a better chance of occurrence
in CVG/LUK. Model guidance is not depicting today and
subsequently the overnight hours well at all, so the forecast is
low confidence in when and where these storms will occur.

Expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorm activity in the
next 24-30 hours with a generally ssw flow 10-12kt. Amendments
will be forthcoming when and where storms have a higher
probability of occurrence later today. Used VCSH/TS as the
catch-all for todays forecast until then.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible into Friday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 11:07 AM EDT, 6 hours 6 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1107 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-011200-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1107 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight. A few of the storms may be strong to severe, especially
this evening and into the overnight hours for areas near and south
of the Ohio River. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging
winds. However, isolated large hail can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 31, 4:58 PM EDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRUIT HILL              39.07N 84.37W
05/31/2018                   HAMILTON           OH   PUBLIC

            SHINGLES REPORTED OFF ROOF OF HOUSE ALONG WITH TREE LIMBS
            DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

HICKMAN

Special weather statement, May 31, 4:58 PM EDT, 15 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
458 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

OHZ053-061>063-071-072-080-312130-
Highland OH-Montgomery OH-Warren OH-Fayette OH-Clinton OH-Clark OH-
Greene OH-
458 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WARREN...
SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE...CLINTON...SOUTH CENTRAL CLARK...GREENE...NORTH
CENTRAL HIGHLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from near Bellbrook to 6 miles west of Wilmington to near
New Vienna, moving northeast at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...

The wind gusts may occur well ahead of any rain.

Locations impacted include...
Kettering, Beavercreek, Xenia, Washington Court House, Wilmington,
Bellbrook, Yellow Springs, Cedarville, Waynesville, Sabina,
Jamestown, New Vienna, Jeffersonville, Wilberforce, New Jasper,
Staunton, Good Hope, Harveysburg, Spring Valley and Martinsville.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 42 and 69.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3944 8332 3928 8378 3944 8399 3962 8419
      3989 8379 3975 8365 3972 8365 3971 8361
      3946 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 231DEG 24KT 3960 8408 3948 8394 3932 8375

AR

Special weather statement, May 31, 5:01 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
501 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

OHZ035-312130-
Auglaize OH-
501 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AUGLAIZE COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

At 501 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near St. Marys,
moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Fort Shawnee, Cridersville, New Knoxville,
Waynesfield, Moulton, Buckland, Uniopolis, Fryburg, Kossuth, St.
Johns, State Route 116 at State Route 197 and Bulkhead.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 107 and 118.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4066 8422 4066 8411 4064 8411 4064 8399
      4054 8397 4053 8399 4049 8399 4049 8446
      4068 8445 4069 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 261DEG 21KT 4059 8441

AR

Local storm report, May 31, 5:10 PM EDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
510 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W NEW MADISON         39.97N 84.75W
05/31/2018                   DARKE              OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

MBP

Local storm report, May 31, 5:13 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
513 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKSVILLE             38.68N 84.07W
05/31/2018                   BRACKEN            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

MBP

Special weather statement, May 31, 5:13 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
513 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

OHZ034-035-042>044-051-052-312145-
Champaign OH-Auglaize OH-Darke OH-Logan OH-Shelby OH-Mercer OH-
Miami OH-
513 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SHELBY...NORTHWESTERN
CHAMPAIGN...WEST CENTRAL LOGAN...NORTHEASTERN DARKE...SOUTHERN
AUGLAIZE...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND NORTHERN MIAMI COUNTIES UNTIL 545
PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Versailles,
moving east at 25 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Sidney, Piqua, New Bremen, Minster, Versailles, St. Henry, Newport,
Anna, Fort Loramie, Jackson Center, Ansonia, Botkins, Hardin,
Webster, Quincy, Russia, Port Jefferson, Osgood, Chickasaw and
Burkettsville.

This includes I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 84 and 105.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4017 8465 4047 8465 4049 8397 4018 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 261DEG 21KT 4027 8448

AR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, OH issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 30, 8:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Hamilton, Montgomery, Warren	51 min
May 30, 8:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Miami	50 min
May 30, 8:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Hardin	34 min
May 30, 9:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Clark, Clermont, Greene, Warren	43 min
May 30, 10:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Madison, Union	45 min
May 30, 10:34 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Union	41 min
May 31, 2:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Adams	36 min
May 31, 2:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Hamilton	33 min
May 31, 3:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Butler, Hamilton	47 min
May 31, 3:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Hocking	26 min
May 31, 3:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Brown, Clermont, Hamilton, Warren	48 min
May 31, 4:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Brown, Clermont	23 min
May 31, 4:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Warren	46 min
May 31, 4:21 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Adams, Brown, Clermont, Clinton, Highland, Warren	39 min
May 31, 4:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Adams, Brown	36 min
May 31, 4:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Darke, Preble	32 min
May 31, 4:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Mercer	46 min
May 31, 4:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Adams, Clinton, Fayette, Highland, Pike, Ross and 1 more	44 min
May 31, 4:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Adams, Scioto	24 min
May 31, 4:57 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Licking	80 min
May 31, 4:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Darke, Miami, Montgomery	33 min
May 31, 4:58 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Clinton, Fayette, Greene	32 min
May 31, 5:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Auglaize	29 min
May 31, 5:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Adams, Scioto	47 min
May 31, 5:21 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Pike, Ross	24 min
May 31, 5:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Champaign, Clark	34 min
May 31, 5:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Fairfield, Hocking	51 min
May 31, 5:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Logan	33 min
May 31, 6:40 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Hocking	20 min
May 31, 1:48 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Lewis	27 min
May 31, 2:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Owen	45 min
May 31, 3:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Carroll, Gallatin, Grant, Owen, Pendleton	48 min
May 31, 4:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Fayette, Wayne	41 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Ohio, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.