Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Wilmington, OH

201 
WWUS51 KILN 312020
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
420 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC191-312029-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-180531T2030Z/
Pendleton KY-
420 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN PENDLETON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for
northern Kentucky...and southwestern Ohio.

LAT...LON 3849 8417 3850 8416 3851 8418 3853 8418
      3854 8416 3856 8416 3855 8421 3856 8422
      3857 8420 3859 8420 3886 8419 3891 8391
      3876 8392 3859 8399 3859 8398 3849 8394
      3844 8400 3845 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 267DEG 44KT 3873 8405 

$$

KYC023-201-OHC015-025-312030-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-180531T2030Z/
Robertson KY-Bracken KY-Clermont OH-Brown OH-
420 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR ROBERTSON...BRACKEN...SOUTHEASTERN CLERMONT AND SOUTHWESTERN
BROWN COUNTIES...

At 419 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brooksville,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Public. Reports of trees down in Pendleton county as it 
         went through earlier.

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Augusta, Felicity, Brooksville, Mount Olivet,
Higginsport, Germantown, Sardis, Chilo, Willow Grove, Bradford,
Burika, Alhambra, Stonewall, Mitchells Mill, Powersville, Feesburg,
Johnsville, Utopia and Chatham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 8417 3850 8416 3851 8418 3853 8418
      3854 8416 3856 8416 3855 8421 3856 8422
      3857 8420 3859 8420 3886 8419 3891 8391
      3876 8392 3859 8399 3859 8398 3849 8394
      3844 8400 3845 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 267DEG 44KT 3873 8405 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JDR

680 
WWUS51 KILN 312033
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
433 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

KYC023-201-OHC015-025-312043-
/O.EXP.KILN.SV.W.0068.000000T0000Z-180531T2030Z/
Robertson KY-Bracken KY-Clermont OH-Brown OH-
433 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROBERTSON...BRACKEN...
SOUTHEASTERN CLERMONT AND SOUTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for
northern Kentucky...and southwestern Ohio.

Please report previous wind damage or hail to the National Weather
Service by going to our website at weather.gov/iln and submitting
your report via social media.

LAT...LON 3849 8417 3850 8416 3851 8418 3853 8418
      3854 8416 3856 8416 3855 8421 3856 8422
      3857 8420 3859 8420 3886 8419 3891 8391
      3876 8392 3859 8399 3859 8398 3849 8394
      3844 8400 3845 8402
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 267DEG 44KT 3874 8383 

$$

JDR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
401 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances will move through the Ohio
Valley through Friday, resulting in a continued chance of
thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will provide for dry
conditions on Saturday before another disturbance brings more
storms on Sunday and Monday. High pressure will then build in
for the remainder of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
A convective bowing segment pushing into the region from the
southwest, along with a line of storms developing over Indiana
moving east into Ohio will keep the CWA under a threat of storms
this evening. Strong initial burst of wind with the bowing
segment will then see showers with scattered thunder behind it
for a few hours. This feature is being driven by the cold pool
and entering into a receptive airmass - at least for the next
few hours. By evening, the feature will outrun the cold pool
driving it and lose much of its punch as it crosses into eastern
sections of the CWA and areas near to the I-70 corridor.

Models are not resolving the situation well at all over the
region today and this evening, so current conditions were pushed
forward in time and blended towards earlier forecasts.
Temperatures will be modified strongly by rain-cooled air this
late day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While there will be numerous upper level vorticity maxima over
the region, the axis of the trough will nose into western CWA by
daybreak Friday, be along the I-71 corridor by 18Z, then be east
and out of the area by evening. Surface front will lag behind
this and a few lingering showers or thunderstorms may persist
over the CWA Friday evening and show a decrease in coverage and
intensity overnight, exiting to the southeast by daybreak.
Surface front will be over the Ohio River towards midnight with
rapidly improving conditions overnight.

Tonight's low temperatures will drop to 67-69 degrees across the
board, and tomorrow's highs will be muted to be within a few
degrees of 80. Cooler air will result behind the surface frontal
passage by Saturday morning, ranging from the upper 50s to
around 60 in the I-70 corridor, to the middle 60s over Kentucky
and immediate Ohio River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will move into the region on
Saturday. Some models try to develop a few instability showers near
our eastern border, but have decided to keep a dry forecast for now.
Highs will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

It now appears that s/wv energy will dig southeast in the northwest
flow aloft, and affect the region late Saturday night into Sunday.
This will be associated with a cold front, which will bring a chance
of showers and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 50s to the mid
60s, highs again will generally be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

The GFS is more of an outlier as we head into the first part of next
week, digging an upper level low faster and farther south into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Have leaned more toward the ECMWF/CMC
which keep the low farther north and a little slower in its digging.
In any case, a weak front should drop south through the region on
Tuesday, with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms. High
temperatures will cool some into the 75 to 80 degree range Monday
into Tuesday.

For the remainder of the extended, Wednesday and Thursday, under a
northwest flow aloft and generalized surface high pressure, dry
weather is expected. Highs 75 to 80 on Wednesday will warm slightly
by Thursday into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail as some lower MVFR stratus breaks
apart from earlier this morning. Upstream storms will nose into
southern CWA and continue this evening. Cores of storms will
produce LIFR vsbys but the bulk of activity today will be
scattered over the TAF sites, with a better chance of occurrence
in CVG/LUK. Model guidance is not depicting today and
subsequently the overnight hours well at all, so the forecast is
low confidence in when and where these storms will occur.

Expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorm activity in the
next 24-30 hours with a generally ssw flow 10-12kt. Amendments
will be forthcoming when and where storms have a higher
probability of occurrence later today. Used VCSH/TS as the
catch-all for todays forecast until then.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible into Friday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1107 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-011200-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1107 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight. A few of the storms may be strong to severe, especially
this evening and into the overnight hours for areas near and south
of the Ohio River. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging
winds. However, isolated large hail can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
350 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 PM     TSTM WND GST     KCVG CINC N KY APT      39.05N 84.66W
05/31/2018  M47 MPH          BOONE              KY   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
351 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSS PLAINS            38.94N 85.20W
05/31/2018                   RIPLEY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

MBP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
354 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0329 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAWRENCEBURG            39.09N 84.86W
05/31/2018                   DEARBORN           IN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN, INCLUDING ALONG ROUTE 48.

&&

BPP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND GST     KLUK LUNKEN AIRPORT     39.10N 84.42W
05/31/2018  M62 MPH          HAMILTON           OH   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
401 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEBRON                  39.07N 84.70W
05/31/2018                   BOONE              KY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

MBP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
403 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND GST     KYMESO ALEXANDRIA 5NW   39.02N 84.47W
05/31/2018  M51 MPH          CAMPBELL           KY   MESONET

&&

HICKMAN