Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across the region
until a cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
High pressure will build in to bring dry conditions for mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Warm front extends from north of Lima south southeast across
the forecast area. It appears that much of this boundary will
wash out into the evening, but northern extent will persist.
There is some suggestion that a weak surface low may track
across northern Ohio which would temporarily bring the front a
bit further south into the forecast area. Better shear is
located across the northern areas as a jet streak moves away
from the region while instability maximum across the south is
working northward in the warm sector. Best combination of shear
and instability, in addition to the proximity to the stronger
part of the front, suggests highest potential for severe
weather is in west central Ohio.

Storms are developing across western Indiana and western
Kentucky and they will move into the area late this afternoon
and this evening. Cannot rule out some strong to damaging winds
with any of these storms as DCAPE has been increasing although
still somewhat marginal.

Storms will weaken later this evening with showers and scattered
storms continuing across the area through much of the night.
Temperatures will remain warm with guidance having a reasonable
handle on lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms may start to redevelop along a pre-
frontal trough in the morning across southeastern counties.
Additional activity will develop through the day as a cold front
approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
until the front crosses the area in the afternoon and evening.
Cannot rule out some stronger updrafts that could be capable of
strong to damaging wind gusts. High pressure will start to build
in later Tuesday night with a drier air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term will open up with rather pleasant weather as surface
high pressure centers over Michigan. The upper level trough axis
will be centered over eastern Canada with the best ageostrophic
convergence located from Michigan to central Ohio.

Wednesday afternoon 1000/850 MB thicknesses are forecast to be
around 1390 M which would support high temperatures only around 80
degrees. Wednesday night into Thursday the broad upper level low
that was over the western United States will open up and head east.
The wave will then impinge on the upper level trough axis pushing
the corresponding surface high pressure east as well. This means
high temperatures will start to recover Thursday (even though
temperatures will likely remain above normal through the long term)
into the lower 80s. 850 MB temperatures remain rather steady while
1000/850 MB thicknesses only slightly increase.

Friday a weak mid-level ridge will form over Tennessee with an upper
level low over the Gulf of Mexico. GFS forecast soundings at KCVG
even show a weak subsidence inversion from the mid-level ridge at
this time and with PWATs forecast to be around 1.25" Fridays highs
could again approach 10 degrees above normal for this time of year
(mid 80s with some upper 80s southwest).

Saturday into Sunday gulf moisture surges north with the cold front
now forecast to remain well north of the ILN forecast area. Even
with the front remaining well north of the area, above normal PWATs
and weak PVA from the upper level low will allow shower and
thunderstorm chances to return to the area Saturday and continue
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main line of showers and storms extending from southeast
Indiana into west central Ohio has been making a very slow
eastward push over the last several hours. The airmass out ahead
of this is still unstable and we are seeing some isolated to
scattered showers and storms beginning to develop in those area.
As a result, will allow for a period of showers and
thunderstorms at all of the TAF sites through the rest of the
evening hours. As we begin to lose some of the diurnal
enhancement and some weak mid level energy pushes eastward, we
should see an overall weakening trend in the coverage and
intensity through the night, but will hang on to a VCSH through
a good part of the overnight hours to account for any lingering
activity. There are some indications that some MVFR cigs may
develop late tonight into Tuesday morning, especially at the
northern TAF sites. A cold front will push east across the area
through the day and this will lead to some additional scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity later Tuesday morning and into
the afternoon hours. Will cover this threat with a VCSH at this
point.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

OHZ026-034-035-042>045-220915-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-
408 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will move across the area late this afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts
being the highest threat. An isolated tornado or large hail cannot be
ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ046-051>056-060>065-
070>074-077>082-088-220915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
408 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area late this
afternoon into the evening. A few of these storms could produce
strong to damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Tuesday
evening. Some storms could produce strong to damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
823 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

INZ074-075-080-KYZ091-OHZ077-220100-
Switzerland IN-Ohio IN-Dearborn IN-Boone KY-Hamilton OH-
823 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OHIO...CENTRAL DEARBORN...NORTH
CENTRAL SWITZERLAND...NORTHERN BOONE AND SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

At 823 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Aurora,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Harrison, Villa Hills, Lawrenceburg, Greendale, Aurora,
Rising Sun, Bright, Burlington, Hidden Valley, Cleves, Dillsboro,
Shawnee, Delhi Township, Miami Heights, Mack, Delhi Hills, Delshire,
Blue Jay and Guilford.

This includes I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 1 and 6.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3928 8480 3908 8459 3907 8462 3905 8462
      3885 8503 3900 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 229DEG 15KT 3904 8491

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
825 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

OHZ045-046-220115-
Delaware OH-Union OH-
825 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND
EASTERN UNION COUNTIES IN CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 825 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Richwood,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Dublin, Delaware, Richwood, Ashley, New California, Radnor,
Ostrander, Magnetic Springs, Delaware State Park, Stratford,
Bellepoint, US Route 33 at US Route 42, Warrensburg, Pharisburg,
Watkins, Leonardsburg, Kilbourne, New Dover and State Route 257 at US
Route 36.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 134 and 139.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4044 8325 4043 8302 4042 8302 4042 8301
      4041 8293 4036 8293 4035 8284 4013 8322
      4035 8341 4049 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 229DEG 15KT 4034 8327

Novak

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
827 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             MOUNT STERLING          39.72N 83.27W
05/21/2018  E1.50 INCH       MADISON            OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MBP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
831 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

KYZ096-097-220115-
Pendleton KY-Bracken KY-
831 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BRACKEN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PENDLETON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 831 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles north of
Cynthiana, moving northeast at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Nickel size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Falmouth, Browning Corner, Neave, Milford, Petra, Mckinneysburg and
Powersville.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3856 8422 3857 8420 3858 8421 3857 8436
      3872 8435 3867 8406 3855 8416 3856 8417
      3856 8418 3855 8420 3855 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 203DEG 10KT 3851 8429

Novak

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
841 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

OHZ052>054-062-063-220115-
Champaign OH-Fayette OH-Madison OH-Clark OH-Greene OH-
841 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
CHAMPAIGN...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...EASTERN CLARK...NORTHEASTERN
GREENE AND MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 841 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a line
extending from Mechanicsburg to Wilberforce, moving southeast at 45
mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Cedarville, Jamestown, South
Charleston, Mechanicsburg, Jeffersonville, Choctaw Lake, Wilberforce,
Harmony, Lisbon, Brighton, Lafayette, South Vienna, South Solon,
Midway, Catawba, Clifton and Milledgeville.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 58 and 84.
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 63 and 74.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4003 8326 4001 8325 3956 8355 3970 8390
      4012 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 333DEG 40KT 4008 8358 3972 8385

Novak

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
848 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             2 SE MARYSVILLE         40.22N 83.35W
05/21/2018  E1.00 INCH       UNION              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MBP