Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Wilmington, OH

Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Mason County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Highland County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Ross County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
753 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across the region
until a cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
High pressure will build in to bring dry conditions for mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Warm front extends from north of Lima south southeast across
the forecast area. It appears that much of this boundary will
wash out into the evening, but northern extent will persist.
There is some suggestion that a weak surface low may track
across northern Ohio which would temporarily bring the front a
bit further south into the forecast area. Better shear is
located across the northern areas as a jet streak moves away
from the region while instability maximum across the south is
working northward in the warm sector. Best combination of shear
and instability, in addition to the proximity to the stronger
part of the front, suggests highest potential for severe
weather is in west central Ohio.

Storms are developing across western Indiana and western
Kentucky and they will move into the area late this afternoon
and this evening. Cannot rule out some strong to damaging winds
with any of these storms as DCAPE has been increasing although
still somewhat marginal.

Storms will weaken later this evening with showers and scattered
storms continuing across the area through much of the night.
Temperatures will remain warm with guidance having a reasonable
handle on lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms may start to redevelop along a pre-
frontal trough in the morning across southeastern counties.
Additional activity will develop through the day as a cold front
approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur
until the front crosses the area in the afternoon and evening.
Cannot rule out some stronger updrafts that could be capable of
strong to damaging wind gusts. High pressure will start to build
in later Tuesday night with a drier air mass.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term will open up with rather pleasant weather as surface
high pressure centers over Michigan. The upper level trough axis
will be centered over eastern Canada with the best ageostrophic
convergence located from Michigan to central Ohio.

Wednesday afternoon 1000/850 MB thicknesses are forecast to be
around 1390 M which would support high temperatures only around 80
degrees. Wednesday night into Thursday the broad upper level low
that was over the western United States will open up and head east.
The wave will then impinge on the upper level trough axis pushing
the corresponding surface high pressure east as well. This means
high temperatures will start to recover Thursday (even though
temperatures will likely remain above normal through the long term)
into the lower 80s. 850 MB temperatures remain rather steady while
1000/850 MB thicknesses only slightly increase.

Friday a weak mid-level ridge will form over Tennessee with an upper
level low over the Gulf of Mexico. GFS forecast soundings at KCVG
even show a weak subsidence inversion from the mid-level ridge at
this time and with PWATs forecast to be around 1.25" Fridays highs
could again approach 10 degrees above normal for this time of year
(mid 80s with some upper 80s southwest).

Saturday into Sunday gulf moisture surges north with the cold front
now forecast to remain well north of the ILN forecast area. Even
with the front remaining well north of the area, above normal PWATs
and weak PVA from the upper level low will allow shower and
thunderstorm chances to return to the area Saturday and continue
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main line of showers and storms extending from southeast
Indiana into west central Ohio has been making a very slow
eastward push over the last several hours. The airmass out ahead
of this is still unstable and we are seeing some isolated to
scattered showers and storms beginning to develop in those area.
As a result, will allow for a period of showers and
thunderstorms at all of the TAF sites through the rest of the
evening hours. As we begin to lose some of the diurnal
enhancement and some weak mid level energy pushes eastward, we
should see an overall weakening trend in the coverage and
intensity through the night, but will hang on to a VCSH through
a good part of the overnight hours to account for any lingering
activity. There are some indications that some MVFR cigs may
develop late tonight into Tuesday morning, especially at the
northern TAF sites. A cold front will push east across the area
through the day and this will lead to some additional scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity later Tuesday morning and into
the afternoon hours. Will cover this threat with a VCSH at this
point.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
948 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

KYZ097-OHZ071-072-077>081-220215-
Bracken KY-Hamilton OH-Clermont OH-Highland OH-Adams OH-Brown OH-
Warren OH-Clinton OH-
948 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A LINE OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN BRACKEN...NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...CLERMONT...BROWN...
SOUTHERN WARREN...WEST CENTRAL ADAMS...SOUTHWESTERN CLINTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 948 PM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms along a line extending
from Blue Ash to near Felicity, moving northeast at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 50 mph...
Nickel size hail...
Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Mason, Sharonville, Blue Ash, Loveland, Reading,
Montgomery, Madeira, Milford, Deer Park, Georgetown, Blanchester,
Forestville, Amelia, Mount Orab, Mariemont, Bethel, Williamsburg,
Terrace Park and Batavia.

This includes the following Interstates...
 I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 10 and 25, between mile markers 29
and 31, and between mile markers 33 and 42.
 I-75 in Ohio near mile marker 14.

Do not stay in the open or seek shelter under trees when lightning
threatens. Move indoors when thunderstorms approach.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3872 8406 3925 8446 3930 8437 3929 8435
      3931 8435 3950 8400 3884 8356 3876 8388
      3877 8390 3876 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0148Z 245DEG 28KT 3924 8437 3882 8404

Novak