Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
738 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will remain across the region through much of
the week. This will lead to occasional chances for showers and
thunderstorms for the next several days. Temperatures will
remain above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cu field looks a little more healthy today along and south
of the boundary compared to what we saw yesterday. That being
said, we are just now starting to see some isolated development
across central Ohio. Given the instability across the area,
would expect to see this become somewhat more widespread
elsewhere for areas along and south of the boundary through
late afternoon. However, with the hi res models still showing
fairly isolated to scattered development, will generally have
pops in chance category through the rest of this afternoon and into
the early evening hours. As we lose the diurnal heating, any
activity should taper off with a decrease in clouds heading into
tonight. A convective complex is forecast to develop later
tonight over the upper Mississippi Valley and begin to push east
southeast toward us. It does look like pcpn associated with
this should mainly stay off to our north and west through the
overnight hours so will just have a slight chance of pcpn later
tonight across our northwestern areas. Lows tonight will range
from the upper 50s in the far north to the mid 60s across the
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
The convective complex is forecast to push east southeast
along/north of the stalled out boundary through Monday morning.
There remains some uncertainty with the timing and strength of
this, but assuming this holds together, it would affect
primarily northern portions of our fa during the morning hours.
Otherwise, a similar set up as we have seen the past several
days is expected for Monday. The stationary boundary will remain
across the area with some additional scattered development
possible through the afternoon to early evening. However, this
will likely be affected by what happens with the morning MCS,
depending on any lingering debris cloudiness and outflow
boundaries. Highs on Monday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A broad ridge in place across the Eastern CONUS will provide the
backdrop for long term weather conditions. Above average
geopotential heights will allow warmer than normal temperatures, and
a humid airmass fed by a southerly flow in the presence of surface
boundaries will lead to several rounds of convective initiation.

The first round of convection is expected Tuesday, when a cold front
combined with a mid level short wave and ample moisture will bring
the likelihood for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The focus
for convection will shift south on Wednesday as the boundary sags to
Kentucky. Thunderstorm chances shift back toward the north Thursday
and Friday when a rather potent short wave is forecast to lift into
the Ohio Valley from the southwest. There is higher the average
uncertainty for this to occur due to model variability from earlier
runs.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible Saturday and Sunday in
the persistently humid and unstable regime. Kept pops in the chance
range since it is unlikely that current models are depicting the
correct location for short wave features that will dictate weather
events.

Temperatures remaining above normal through the period will start
quite warm, with highs in the mid and upper 80s Tuesday. Readings
will retreat a bit for the rest of the period, with highs averaging
in the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Scattered storms have developed along a frontal boundary as
it pushes south into southern Ohio. This boundary is
encountering a moderately unstable airmass with blyr capes up
to 1500 j/kg. Isolated stronger storms will have the potential
to produce large hail. Have a mention of VCTS at KILN/KCVG and
KLUK to account for this threat this evening.

Expect to see a diurnal decrease in coverage into the overnight
hours as clouds scatter out. Some fog will be possible at KLUK
valley location and at this time have limited mention to MVFR
vsby restriction.

Models solutions continue to suggest that additional convection
develops to our northwest and drops east-southeast late tonight
through Monday morning. Model spread exists regarding
timing and coverage so have limited mention to VCTS at the
northern TAF sites. Outside of these storms have continued VFR
conditions at all TAF sites going into Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Chances for thunderstorms will exist at times through
Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
404 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-140815-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
404 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
There is the potential for a few strong to severe storms. If severe
storms develop, there will be the potential for large hail, damaging
winds, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible on Monday, mainly from
Monday morning through early afternoon. Some of these storms may be
severe, with a primary threat of damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today and Monday.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-140815-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-
Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
404 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky and Northern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

HATZOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
712 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

OHZ063-064-073-140000-
Ross OH-Fayette OH-Pickaway OH-
712 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL FAYETTE...SOUTHWESTERN
PICKAWAY AND NORTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 712 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Washington
Court House, moving east at 35 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Washington Court House, Circleville, Williamsport,
Bloomingburg, New Holland, Logan Elm Village, North Folk Village,
Staunton, Good Hope, Frankfort, Clarksburg, South Salem, Deer Creek
Lake, Austin, Knockemstiff, Rock Mills, Pancoastburg, Plano and
Bourneville.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3946 8294 3925 8308 3937 8338 3938 8337
      3945 8358 3949 8358 3964 8348 3961 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 286DEG 29KT 3953 8344

Haines

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

INZ059-066-OHZ060-070-140000-
Union IN-Franklin IN-Butler OH-Preble OH-
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN UNION COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN PREBLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN
BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 727 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near West
College Corner, moving east at 30 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Oxford, Seven Mile, West College Corner, Darrtown, Salem,
Reily, Millville, College Corner, Somerville, Dunlapsville,
Whitewater State Park, Charlottesville, Hueston Woods State Park,
Mounds State Recreation Area, Billingsville, Collinsville, Cottage
Grove, Morning Sun and Mixersville.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3949 8504 3962 8500 3960 8458 3947 8455
      3932 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 286DEG 24KT 3953 8492

Haines

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