River Flood Warning 9, NWS Wilmington, OH

162 
WGUS81 KILN 170101
FLSILN
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
801 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers...

  North Fork Licking River at Newark Main Street

OHC089-170131-
/O.CAN.KILN.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180217T0618Z/
/NMSO1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
801 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The North Fork Licking River at Newark Main Street
* At 7 PM the stage was 14.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15 feet.
* The river crested below flood stage at 14.9 feet. The river will 
  continue to fall to 6.0 feet by Sunday morning.
* Minor flooding in lowland areas along the 
  North Fork and flooding of Wildcat Park will continue to recede.  
  

&&

LAT...LON 4009 8242 4010 8242 4010 8241 4007 8239
      4006 8239 4006 8240             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
306 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front that produced widespread rain has moved south,
allowing colder temperatures and drier conditions to visit
tonight as high pressure crosses Northern Ohio. On Saturday, low
pressure traveling over the Southern Appalachians will bring
precipitation mainly to southeastern locations. High pressure
and dry weather will return for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Area is under a colder northwest flow well north of a departing
cold front. Any lingering light rain in far southeast counties
will end shortly. This will leave mostly cloudy skies resulting
from shallow low level moisture trapped under a subsidence
inversion associated with surface high pressure approaching from
the northwest. According to model soundings, clouds will
persist through the overnight hours even as the 1029mb high
pressure travels across Northern Ohio. A blend of model
temperature guidance yields lows ranging from the lower 20s far
north, to the mid 20s Dayton and Columbus, up to the upper 20s
Cincinnati and Portsmouth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
For Saturday, models are in pretty good agreement in bringing low
pressure across the Southern Appalachians. Precip forecast to
develop ahead of the low should mainly affect locations south of I-
71. 1000-850mb thickness and model soundings indicate a marginal
thermal environment for snow crystal development and accumulation.
In other words, rain mixing with snow, and high temps in the upper
30s to around 40, will limit snow accumulation to an inch or
less.

While precip ends quickly Saturday night as high pressure returns
behind the departing low, temperatures will retreat to around 30 for
overnight lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will be the least active weather day in the extended as high
pressure traverses the Ohio Valley. Under sunshine, highs will
moderate into the 40s to lower 50s.

Models continue to advertise an active weather pattern for next
week.  Thus, the threat for additional flooding will continue. The
upper level flow pattern becomes amplified as a strong subtropical
ridge builds off the southeast U.S. coast while large scale mid
level troughing develops across western Canada/western U.S. This
setup will transport rounds of moisture northeast across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. The first round of precipitation is expected
Sunday night into Monday as a low level/moist jet in association
with a warm front pushes northeast across the area. In the warm
sector, highs will warm into the 60s most locations on Monday. For
Monday night into Wednesday night, a very slow moving frontal
boundary will be the focus for more rounds of precipitation. It will
be unseasonably warm on Tuesday with some cooler air slowly moving
back in by Wednesday. Tuesday temperatures will vary with higher
chances of rain for the northwest with the least in the southeast.
This will allow highs to range from the mid 60s northwest to the mid
70s southeast. Showers and a slow frontal passage will cool
temperatures back down on Wednesday.

By weeks end, there could be a respite in the probability for
precipitation by Thursday as the front tries to move east/southeast
of the region. However, activity will likely ramp up again by Friday
and into next weekend as s/wv energy begins to affect the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley once again.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TAF sites will continue to be affected by residual moisture
behind a departing cold front. Though rain has ended, MVFR
ceilings forming in shallow moisture trapped under an inversion
are forecast to persist through tonight, according to model
soundings, even as surface high pressure travels across Northern
Ohio. After 14z Saturday, VFR may rule for the most part,
though showers could occur in the vicinity as low pressure
moves through the Southern Appalachians. CVG may see a period
of MVFR again Saturday afternoon as the boundary layer moistens
under rain and snow. Winds from the northwest will gust over 20
knots early in the period, before subsiding and becoming south
ahead of the next low pressure.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
211 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-171915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
211 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Rain from from the departing cold front has led to river flooding
that will persist through tonight. Please check our web site
www.weather/gov/iln for more information on the river flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional heavy rainfall is expected Monday through Wednesday.
This will lead to rises on area creeks and streams along with the
potential for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.