River Flood Warning 5, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1228 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front that produced widespread rain has moved south,
allowing colder temperatures and drier conditions to visit
with high pressure by tonight. On Saturday, low pressure
traveling across the Southern Appalachians will bring
precipitation mainly to southeastern locations. High pressure
and dry weather will return for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front has moved south of the ILN FA. Rain that has
persisted in residual lift and moisture behind the front will
gradually come to an end. It appears that precip is outrunning
arrival of near freezing temps so removed light snow
accumulations.

Flood watch remains in effect until 2 pm. Though radar is
overestimating precip amounts, around an inch of rain over the
last day, falling on soils exhibiting seasonally low capacity,
has resulted in some localized urban, small stream, and
tributary flooding. Temperatures will drop to the mid 30s to low
40s by mid afternoon as cold advection takes hold. Northwest
winds will gust over 20 mph in the rather tight pressure
gradient behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Dry conditions are expected overnight tonight. On Saturday a
surface low will move southeast of the region and an upper level
disturbance will move through primarily northern portions of the
region later in the day on Saturday. There is still some
question on precipitation type as to whether or not ice will be
in the clouds during part of the day. Went on the cool side of
guidance for high temperatures on Saturday with high
temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s. Went with a
solution that has more snow on Saturday, however even with this
solution expect snowfall accumulations to be under an inch with
temperatures in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
System will be pulling out early in the period with some lingering
light snow or rain possible Saturday evening. High pressure will
move across the area on Sunday.

Upper ridging will build into the region during the early part of
the week. Expect showers to move north through the area Sunday night
into Monday. Temperatures will then return to unseasonably warm. A
slow-moving cold front extending from the lower Great Lakes into the
mid Mississippi Valley which will allow showers to persist,
especially across the northwest part of the forecast area. With
abundant moisture in place and the slow progression of the system,
there will be the potential for heavier rainfall at times. This in
combination with wet soil will bring the possibility for flooding.
The front will sag southeast across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday finally pushing precipitation to the southeast.
Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler behind the front although
still above normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TAF sites will continue to be affected by residual moisture
behind a departing cold front. Though rain has ended, MVFR
ceilings forming in shallow moisture trapped under an inversion
are forecast to persist through tonight, according to model
soundings, even as surface high pressure travels across Northern
Ohio. After 14z Saturday, VFR may rule for the most part,
though showers could occur in the vicinity as low pressure
moves through the Southern Appalachians. CVG may see a period
of MVFR again Saturday afternoon as the boundary layer moistens
under rain and snow. Winds from the northwest will gust over 20
knots early in the period, before subsiding and becoming south
ahead of the next low pressure.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 2 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ063>065-
     072>074-079>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 2 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ100.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Novak
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Novak
SHORT TERM...Novak
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Coniglio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
613 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

KYZ100-OHZ063>065-072>074-079>082-088-171115-
Lewis-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
613 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Central
Ohio, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional rainfall is expected Monday through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall will be possible at times through the period. This will
lead to rises on area creeks and streams along with the potential
for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report their rainfall amounts to the
National Weather Service in Wilmington.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-171115-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
613 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There will be the potential for rises on area creeks and streams
along with minor flooding from earlier rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional rainfall is expected Monday through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall will be possible at times through the period. This will
lead to rises on area creeks and streams along with the potential
for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report their rainfall amounts to the
National Weather Service in Wilmington.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>099-OHZ070-071-077-078-171115-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Butler-
Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-
613 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northern
Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Rain will continue to move across the area this morning. While
widespread flooding is not expected, there will be the potential for
isolated minor flooding and rises on area creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional rainfall is expected Monday through Wednesday. Heavy
rainfall will be possible at times through the period. This will
lead to rises on area creeks and streams along with the potential
for flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report their rainfall amounts to the
National Weather Service in Wilmington.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
901 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW CARLISLE            39.94N 84.03W
02/16/2018  M1.05 INCH       CLARK              OH   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BC