River Flood Warning 6, NWS Wilmington, NC

380 
WGUS82 KILM 010118
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
918 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-011718-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0006.180602T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T1800Z.180605T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
918 PM EDT Thu May 31 2018

...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* from Saturday afternoon until further notice.
* At  8:30 PM Thursday the stage was 8.97 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Saturday afternoon and continue to 
  rise to near 10.8 feet by early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters continue to rise and affect roads in the 
  River Bend and River Birch subdivisions off Highway 53 along the east bank of 
  the river. Portions of Croomsbridge Road and Old Maple Hill Road become 
  impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

711 
WGUS82 KILM 011311
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
911 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-020510-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0006.180602T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T1200Z.180604T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
911 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...Flood Warning now in effect until further notice...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw
* from Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 8:30 AM Friday the stage was 9.36 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue
  to rise to near 10.7 feet by early Tuesday morning.
* At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

47

363 
WGUS82 KILM 020121
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
921 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-021721-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0006.180602T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T1200Z.180604T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
921 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* from Saturday morning until further notice.
* At  8:30 PM Friday the stage was 9.61 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue to rise to 
  near 10.7 feet by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

31

757 
WGUS82 KILM 021305
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
905 AM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-030505-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180607T1800Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T1800Z.180604T1800Z.180607T0600Z.NO/
905 AM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...Flood Warning now in effect until Thursday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At  8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 9.85 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to rise to 
  near 10.6 feet by early Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage
  by early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

43

230 
WGUS82 KILM 030145
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
945 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-031744-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180607T1800Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180604T1800Z.180607T0600Z.NO/
945 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At 8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 10.05 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* The river will continue rising to near 10.6 feet by early Tuesday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage early Thursday morning.
* At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

47

630 
WGUS82 KILM 031335
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
935 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-040535-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180608T0300Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180605T0000Z.180607T1500Z.NO/
935 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...Flood Warning now in effect until Thursday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  8:30 AM Sunday the stage was 10.30 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.8 feet by early Tuesday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage late Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Floodwaters continue to rise and affect roads in the 
  River Bend and River Birch subdivisions off Highway 53 along the east bank of 
  the river. Portions of Croomsbridge Road and Old Maple Hill Road become 
  impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

43

473 
WGUS82 KILM 040115
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
915 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-041715-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180608T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180604T1800Z.180607T1200Z.NO/
915 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

...Flood Warning now in effect until Thursday evening...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 10.50 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.7 feet by early Tuesday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

RAN

892 
WGUS82 KILM 041236
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
836 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-050435-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180608T0000Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180604T1800Z.180607T1200Z.NO/
836 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 10.60 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.7 feet by just after 
  midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

43

799 
WGUS82 KILM 050233
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1033 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-051833-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180607T1800Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180604T2030Z.180607T0600Z.NO/
1033 PM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

...Flood Warning now in effect until Thursday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until Thursday afternoon.
* At  9:30 PM Monday the stage was 10.62 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall and get below flood stage by early 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

376 
WGUS82 KILM 051436
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1036 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-060635-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180607T0900Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180604T2030Z.180606T2100Z.NO/
1036 AM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

...Flood Warning now in effect until late Wednesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until late Wednesday night.
* At  9:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.53 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall and get below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

19

533 
WGUS82 KILM 060032
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
832 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-061632-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180607T0600Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180604T2030Z.180606T1800Z.NO/
832 PM EDT Tue Jun 5 2018

...Flood Warning now in effect until late Wednesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until late Wednesday night.
* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.36 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall and get below flood stage by early 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Flood waters cause minor flooding of Croomsbridge Road 
  and Old Maple Hill Road. Some roads in River Bend and River Birch subdivsions 
  become impassable.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

43

727 
WGUS82 KILM 061425
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1025 AM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-070600-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180607T0600Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180604T2030Z.180606T1800Z.NO/
1025 AM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* until late tonight.
* At  9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.09 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall and get below flood stage by this 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River 
  Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge 
  over the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

21

769 
WGUS82 KILM 061909
FLSILM
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
309 PM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers...

  Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw affecting Pender County NC

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People with interests along the river should take the necessary precautions to 
protect life and property from the flood waters.

Additional information is available on our website at weather.gov/ilm under the 
"Rivers and Lakes" link.

&&

NCC141-061939-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180607T0600Z/
/BGWN7.1.ER.180602T2045Z.180604T2030Z.180606T1715Z.NO/
309 PM EDT Wed Jun 6 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Northeast Cape Fear Near Burgaw.
* At  2:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.96 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  1:15 PM Wednesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 9.6 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River 
  Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge 
  over the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3472 7798 3472 7786 3460 7776 3445 7779
          3444 7788 3457 7788         

$$

43

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
740 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today,
with isolated to perhaps scattered showers on Friday. The
probability for showers and thunderstorms will likely increase
again on Saturday ahead of a cold front that will cross the area
Saturday night. Unsettled weather may lingering into Monday.
Drier air will slowly try to build into the area from the north
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Another abnormally humid and unsettled
forecast for the last day of May, matching the last several
weeks of the month.

Tropical Depression Alberto continues to spin across Michigan early
this morning as Bermuda high pressure remains anchored off the
coast. Around this offshore high, southerly flow persists driving
anomalously warm and moist air into the region, and PWATs are
forecast to climb to 2.1 to 2.2 inches, breaking the daily record
yet again. This exceedingly moist column will fuel convection with
the potential for heavy rainfall, and coverage should be more
widespread than on Wednesday. The reasons for this are many, but
most notably because of higher PWATs, better mid-level LR's, and
strong MLCape rising towards 1000 J/kg. Additionally, a mid-level
impulse across N FL this morning will lift northward with a weak
surface reflection and help to spawn convection locally. This is
modeled by nearly all available guidance, and have bumped POP to
high-end LKLY nearly everywhere from late morning through tonight.
Although showers/tstms are expected in most locations, kept POP just
below categorical as convection may be scattered in nature at any
given time despite most places eventually seeing rain.

With the very moist column in place, good instability, and mid-level
forcing, rainfall should be heavy at times and many places could see
0.5 to 0.75 inches of QPF. This is important especially at
Wilmington which is sitting at 14.36 inches of rain for the month,
by far a record for May. If Wilmington can get 0.64 inches of rain
today, reaching 15.00 for the month and almost 6 inches above the
previous record, that would put the city at 5 standard deviations
above the mean for May. Reaching this far above the average is
extremely improbable, in fact nearly impossible (probability is
0.00006%), and truly indicative of the historic rainfall that has
occurred here the past 31 days.

Convection will wane with loss of heating and a mostly dry night is
forecast. A weak trough will move across overnight bringing a shift
in winds to the west through a lot of the column, and finally
bringing some drier air to the region. Drier is used relatively here
as PWATs remain near the 90th percentile for the beginning of June,
but well below what we have experienced the past two weeks.

Highs today could be tricky as any breaks of sunshine could quickly
raise temperatures above forecast in the hot/humid airmass, but
expect quite a bit of cloud cover much of the aftn. Have forecast
highs in the upper 80s inland to mid 80s at the coast, but any
sunshine could raise these a few more degrees. Mins tonight will
again be well above climo norms, with another night in the low to
mid 70s forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Weakening mid-level ridge over the Bahamas
transitions the flow aloft from westerly on Fri to northwesterly for
Fri night through Sat night. Precip chances on Fri are questionable.
Mid-level lapse rates remain quite steep and although precipitable
water drops to 1.7 (which is still around the 90th percentile for
the start of June) there is a fair amount of mid level dry air.
Guidance drops a late day shortwave in from the northwest with some
suggestions that ongoing convection could reach the area, falling
apart as it arrives. Given the extraordinarily wet conditions
recently and the potential for rogue shortwaves do not feel warm and
fuzzy about removing precip chances. Will retain inherited chance
pop Fri and Fri night for now.

Convection seems a little more likely on Sat, although even then
there are a few questions. Precipitable water will range from 1.7 to
1.8 but mid-level dry air persists. Mid-level lapse rates once again
exceed 7 C/km and a shortwave trough passes overhead during peak
heating, dragging a cold front across the area late in the
period. Widespread diurnal convection should blossom on the
pinned sea breeze and along the Piedmont trough. Limited shear
and high freezing/-20 levels and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg late Sat
afternoon into the evening suggest that if a strong or severe
storms were to develop damaging wind would be the concern. Does
not look like a setup for organized severe but there is some
isolated severe potential. The aforementioned cold front will
cross the area late Sat night, pushing any lingering convection
offshore.

West to northwest flow will produce highs some 10 degrees above
climo. Although not a true downslope flow there will be some
downslope component. Did not go quite as warm as partial thickness
schemes would suggest but did raise temps a few degrees. Further
upward adjustments may be needed. Lingering low level moisture and
debris clouds keep lows 10 degrees or more above climo. The
increased low level moisture during the day will lead to heat index
values above 100 degrees for the first time this year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Forecast Area will be in between upper
high centered across the Bahamas and western Caribbean islands
an upper low wobbling across the Mid-Atlantic States Sun. The
eastern Carolinas will be under the influence of NW flow aloft.
Cold front moving off the coast Sun morning is reinforced by
the passage of a shortwave trough later Sun/Sun eve. The upper
low should then open up Mon as it becomes absorbed by a much
stronger system diving SE across SE Canada and the Northeast
States. This large system will then move slowly offshore of the
Northeast States Tue and Wed. Perturbations embedded in NW to
WNW flow will periodically move across the Carolinas early into
mid next week, thus making it virtually impossible to not
include at least isolated to scattered convection on a daily
basis. However, at the surface, high pressure will attempt to
build southward and into the Southeast States Tue night and Wed.
Given the progressive pattern and the extended range,
confidence is not high enough to include numerous or widespread
convection in any 12 hour period, however, generally expect the
afternoon and early eve hours to be a more favored time of day
for convection. Showers and thunderstorms should be fewer by the
middle of next week as compared to the weekend and early in the
new week.

Daytime highs should be in the seasonable mid and upper 80s.
Lows will be mainly in the lower 70s Sat night with upper 60s
and lower 70s dominating the balance of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 12Z...An area of convection near CHS is moving NE towards the
terminals. There is a high likelihood the terminals will
experience showers, with possibly an isolated thunderstorm,
through 18Z. This activity will produce mainly MVFR, with brief
IFR vsbys in the heavier showers. By early afternoon this
convection will decrease from SW-NE, but another round of
convection will approach the inland terminals mid-late afternoon
from the west with showers and possible thunderstorms. This
activity will move towards the coastal terminals by evening, but
confidence is low attm whether the coastal terminals will be
affected much since the airmass near the coast may be too worked
over by earlier convection.

Extended Outlook...VFR. Tempo MVFR/IFR in AM fog/stratus, and
brief MVFR/IFR in mainly late morning through early evening
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Southerly winds will climb to 15-20 kts
late morning through much of the aftn as flow around offshore
high pressure persists. A trough will move towards the waters
late tonight causing wind speeds to slowly ease back to 10-15
kts while veering to the SW by Friday morning. The prolonged 7
second swell from the SE will remain in the spectrum today but
begin to deamplify to around 2 ft this evening, while a shorter
period 5-6 sec southerly wave begins to grow. These two wave
groups will combine to produce 3-4 ft seas much of today, with
subtle growth to 3-5 ft possible this evening and early tonight
before winds slack ahead of the aforementioned trough.

NEAR TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Surface high northeast of the Bahamas and
low pressure slowly moving across the Mid-Atlantic states will
maintain southwest flow over the waters through the period.
Heating each afternoon tightens up the gradient during the late
afternoon and evening hours, increasing speeds to close to 20 kt
at times. Seas respond to the increase in speeds by building
from around 3 ft Fri morning to a solid 4 ft late in the day
before falling back near 3 ft during the overnight hours. This
cycle will repeat itself Sat and Sat night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...The wind direction should then back
slightly during Sun ahead of a reinforcing cold front before
shifting to N Sun night in its wake. N winds will then veer to
NE Mon and possibly become variable Mon night. Wind speeds will
be 10 kt or less through the period. Seas of 2 to 4 ft into Sun
will subside to 2 to 3 ft beginning late Sun and through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...MRR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
400 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

AMZ250-252-254-256-010800-
Coastal waters from Surf City to Cape Fear NC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Fear NC to Little River Inlet SC out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little River Inlet to Murrells Inlet SC out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Murrells Inlet to South Santee River SC out
20 nm-
400 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-010800-
Coastal Pender-Coastal New Hanover-Coastal Brunswick-Coastal Horry-
Coastal Georgetown-
400 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059-010800-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-Inland Pender-Inland Brunswick-Marlboro-
Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-Inland Georgetown-
Central Horry-Northern Horry-
400 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina and
northeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values will climb to above 100 degrees Friday and Saturday
afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ107-010800-
Inland New Hanover-
400 AM EDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat index values will climb to above 100 degrees Friday and Saturday
afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

17