N.E. Cape Fear River near Burgaw

1. 26.00 ftExtensive flooding in River Bend,River Birch Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend subdivisions and along the length of the river including tributaries. Impassable roads include Croomsbridge RD,Old Maple Hill RD,River RD near Wallace,Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,Oxbow,Shaw Hwy,White Stocking RD,Hwy 53,Stag Park RD,Hwy 210,Hwy 117 near Castle Hayne,Interstate 40,and Island Creek RD. Old River RD in Morgan Cove will flood. Homes in all of these areas may flood.
2. 25.00 ftExtensive flooding in River Bend,River Birch Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend subdivisions and along the length of the river including tributaries. Impassable roads include Croomsbridge RD,Old Maple Hill RD,River RD near Wallace,Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,Oxbow,Shaw Hwy,White Stocking RD,Hwy 53,Stag Park RD,Hwy 210,Hwy 117 near Castle Hayne,Interstate 40,and Island Creek RD. Old River RD in Morgan Cove will flood. Homes in all of these areas may flood.
3. 24.00 ftExtensive flooding in River Bend, River Birch, Alligator Lake, Holly Shelter Estates, and Sandy Bend subdivisions and along the length of the river including tributaries. Flooded roads include Croomsbridge RD,Old Maple Hill RD,River RD near Wallace,Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,Oxbow,Shaw Hwy,White Stocking RD,Hwy 53,Stag Park RD,Hwy 210,Hwy 117 near Castle Hayne,Interstate 40,and Island Creek RD. Old River RD in Morgan Cove will flood. Homes in all of these areas will flood.
4. 23.00 ftExtensive flooding in River Bend,River Birch,Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend subdivisions and along the length of the river including tributaries. Flooded roads include Croomsbridge RD,Old Maple Hill RD,River RD near Wallace,Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,Oxbow,Shaw Hwy,White Stocking RD,Hwy 53,Stag Park RD,Hwy 210,Hwy 117 near Castle Hayne,Interstate 40,and Island Creek RD. Old River Road in Morgan Cove will flood. Homes in these areas may flood.
5. 22.00 ftExtensive flooding in River Bend,River Birch,Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend subdivisions and along the length of the river including tributaries. Flooded roads include Croomsbridge RD,Old Maple Hill RD,River RD near Wallace,Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,Oxbow,Shaw Hwy,White Stocking RD,Hwy 53,Stag Park RD,Hwy 210,and Island Creek RD. Homes in these areas may flood. Low areas along Old River RD in Morgan Cove and Hwy 117 near Castle Hayne will flood.
6. 21.00 ftExtensive flooding in River Bend,River Birch,Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend subdivisions and along the length of the river and tributaries. Flooded roads include Croomsbridge RD,Old Maple Hill RD,River RD near Wallace,Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,Oxbow,Shaw Hwy,White Stocking RD,HWY 53,Stag Park RD,Hwy 210,and Island Creek RD. Homes in these areas may flood. Low areas along Old River RD in Morgan Cove begin to flood. Hwy 117 near Castle Hayne will flood.
7. 20.00 ftExtensive flooding in River Bend,River Birch,Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend subdivisions and along the length of the river and tributaries. Flooded roads include Croomsbridge RD,Old Maple Hill RD,River RD near Wallace,Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,Oxbow,Shaw Hwy,White Stocking RD,HWY 53,Stag Park RD,Hwy 210,and Island Creek RD. Homes in these areas may flood. Hwy 117 near Castle Hayne and low areas along Old River RD in Morgan Cove may begin to flood.
8. 19.00 ftExtensive flooding of River Bend,River Birch,Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend and on Croomsbridge RD and Old Maple Hill RD. The ends of River RD near Wallace,Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,and Oxbow Landing are cutoff by floodwaters. Shaw Hwy ,Whitestocking RD,Hwy 53,Hwy 210 near Lanes Ferry,Stage Park Rd,and Island Creek Rd near Island Creek are impassable. Equine Acres Country Estates flooding worsens. Water may get into homes in some of these areas.
9. 18.00 ftExtensive flooding of River Bend, River Birch, Alligator Lake, Holly Shelter Estates, and Sandy Bend and Croomsbridge RD and Old Maple Hill RD. The ends of River RD near Wallace, Turtle Hill TR, Hickory Hill LN, White Tail LN, Mallard Roost DR, and Oxbow Landing are cutoff by flooding. Shaw Hwy, White Stocking RD, and Hwy 53 are impassable. Homes may flood in these areas. Hwy 210 at Lanes Ferry, Stag Park Road, and Island Creek Road at Island Creek will flood. Equine Acres Country Estates flooding worsens.
10. 17.00 ftFlooding deepens in River Bend,River Birch,Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend. The ends of Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,and Oxbow Landing will be cutoff by flooding. Croomsbridge RD,Old Maple Hill RD.Shaw Hwy,White Stocking RD,and Hwy 53 are impassable in multiple locations. Water may get into some homes. Hwy 210 at Lanes Ferry,Stag Park RD at Cypress and Burgaw Creeks,and Island Creek at Island Creek will flood. Equine Landing Rd and Mustang Pt are flooded.
11. 16.00 ftFlooding worsens in River Bend, River Birch, Alligator Lake, Holly Shelter Estates, and Sandy Bend and on Croomsbridge RD and Old Maple Hill RD. The ends of Turtle Hill TR, Hickory Hill LN, White Tail LN, Mallard Roost DR, and Oxbow Landing may be cutoff by floodwaters. Shaw Hwy, White Stocking RD, and Island Creek RD at Island Creek are flooded. Hwy 53 will be impassable. Hwy 210 at Lanes Ferry and Stag Park RD at Cypress and Burgaw Creeks may begin to flood. Equine Landing Rd and Mustang Pt may flood.
12. 15.00 ftFlooding deepens in the River Bend,River Birch,Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend subdivisions and on Croomsbridge RD and Old Maple Hill RD. The ends of Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,and Oxbow Landing may be cutoff by floodwaters. Shaw Hwy between Carl Meeks RD and Lillington Ln and White Stocking RD from Chorley RD to Mack Williams Ln are flooded. Island Creek RD may flood at Island Creek. Hwy 53 may be impassable. Equine Acres Country Estates may flood.
13. 14.00 ftFlooding deepens in the River Bend,River Birch,Alligator Lake,Holly Shelter Estates,and Sandy Bend subdivisions. Croomsbridge RD and Old Maple Hill RD will be impassable in multiple locations. Flooding worsens near the ends of Turtle Hill TR,Hickory Hill LN,White Tail LN,Mallard Roost DR,and Oxbow Landing. Shaw Hwy is flooded between Carl Meeks Road and Lillington Lane. White Stocking RD is flooded from Chorley RD to Mack Williams Ln. Flooding worsens on Hwy 53. Island Creek RD may flood at Island Creek.
14. 13.00 ftFlooding deepens in the River Bend, River Birch and Alligator Lake subdivisions. Croomsbridge RD and Old Maple Hill RD will be impassable in multiple locations. Flooding in Holly Shelter Estates and in Sandy Bend worsens. Flooding also worsens near the ends of Turtle Hill TR, Hickory Hill LN, White Tail LN, Mallard Roost DR, and Oxbow Landing. Shaw Highway is flooded at Ashes Creek and Lillington Creek.
15. 12.00 ftFlooding worsens in the River Bend, River Birch and Alligator Lake subdivisions. Flooding on Croomsbridge RD and Old Maple Hill RD worsens and the roads may be impassable in multiple locations. Holly Shelter Estates begins to flood and flooding in Sandy Bend worsens. Flooding worsens near the ends of Turtle Hill TR, Hickory Hill LN, White Tail LN, Mallard Roost DR, and Oxbow Landing. Shaw Hwy is flooded at Ashes and Lillington Creeks. Equine Landing RD area may flood.
16. 11.00 ftFlooding worsens in River Bend and River Birch areas with some roads being impassable. More of Croomsbridge RD floods and the road is impassable west of the bridge over the river. Minor flooding begins near the ends of White Tail LN, Mallard Roost DR, and Oxbow Landing. Flooding worsens near the ends of Turtle Hill TR and Hickory Hill LN. Flooding begins in Alligator Lakes and on Old Maple Hill RD near Shaken Creek. Shaw Hwy begins to flood at Ashes and Lillington Creeks. Flooding may begin in Sandy Bend.
17. 10.00 ftMinor flooding of roads in the River Bend and River Birch subdivisions. Flooding of Croomsbridge Road begins west of the bridge over the river. Minor flooding may begin in areas along Mallard Roost Drive nearer the river and near the ends of Turtle Hill Trail and Hickory Hill Lane.
18. 9.00 ftWater deepens on the lowest portions of River Bend Road and River Birch Road.
19. 8.00 ftWater affects the lowest portions of River Bend Road and River Birch Road.

Chance of flooding, September to November

The three-month chances are the River Forecast Centers’ long-range flood outlook, issued September 15, 2026.

Most recent crests

• September 21, 2024: 11.35 ft
• August 13, 2024: 16.51 ft
• July 31, 2024: 9.39 ft
• January 14, 2024: 6.86 ft
• December 31, 2023: 8.61 ft
• December 25, 2023: 9.50 ft
• September 4, 2023: 13.03 ft
• July 13, 2023: 8.33 ft
• July 12, 2022: 5.13 ft
• August 13, 2021: 9.21 ft

• UpstreamN.E. Cape Fear River at Chinquapin
• DownstreamCape Fear River at Wilmington (IN MLLW)
• NE Cape Fear River
• Burgaw Creek
• Shelter Creek
• Rockfish Creek
• NE Cape Fear River
• Little Rockfish Creek at Wallace
• Long Creek

Forecasts by the Southeast River Forecast Center. Forecasts are issued as needed during times of high water, but are not routinely available. River forecasts for this location take into account past precipitation and the precipitation amounts expected approximately 48 hours into the future from the forecast issuance time.

Stage, flood stages, impacts and crest history from NOAA’s National Water Prediction Service. Streamflow and the daily record from the U.S. Geological Survey.