Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
257 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

The main challenge in the short term will be day one max
temperatures.  Much of the CWA has been hammered by a broad
line of showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain and some
strong winds.  The timing of clearing behind the showers and
thunderstorms will determine how high the afternoon temperatures
will go.  Some areas may be a little cooler than currently forecast.  This is most likely to occur in the southeastern portions of the CWA this afternoon.

The remainder of the short terms looks rather quiet as the upper
trough that supported the thunderstorm activity this morning
slowly moves off to the east.  Behind the trough, subsidence
will develop and will crush any precipitation chances for the
rest of the short term. This set up support mostly sunny skies
and warm conditions. Temperatures are expected to remain close to
normal for this time of year but will warm some.

Metzger

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

Extended range starts our rather quiet as well with seasonal
temperatures or just above normal for this time of year.  Rain
chances for the end of the week and into the weekend look dry
for the most part.  There are some outside chances for rain for
Thursday and Friday but due to the lack of instability and
moisture transport, will keep the POPs low for now.  By Sunday
afternoon, things start to get a little more interesting.
Moisture transport will pick up and the instability becomes a
little better as a weak trough will be encroach on the CWA.
This evening does not look that significant at this time but
most of the long range models, including the ECMWF and GEFS Plumes
are indicating a good chance for showers and thunderstorms
returning to the region.

Metzger

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

The short term or the first six if not even just the first three
hours are the concern for this forecast. Thunderstorms moving
through south central and southeast Kansas are the primary focus
with heavy rainfall that has reduced visibilities to one mile.
Thus there are respective tempo groups to account for these
values. The timing for KCNU may be adjusted depending on the track
of the current line of thunderstorms. There is a storm in the
county to the south at this forecast issuance. After 1Z, cloud
cover will diminish, and northerly winds will remain light for the
rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  84  62  91 /  30   0   0   0
Hutchinson      59  85  60  90 /  30   0   0   0
Newton          59  82  61  90 /  30   0   0   0
ElDorado        59  83  60  89 /  30  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   60  84  61  90 /  30   0   0   0
Russell         57  84  61  91 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      57  83  60  91 /  30   0   0   0
Salina          58  85  60  93 /  30   0   0   0
McPherson       58  85  60  90 /  30   0   0   0
Coffeyville     61  85  61  90 /  20   0   0   0
Chanute         60  83  60  89 /  30  10   0   0
Iola            59  83  60  89 /  30  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    60  84  60  90 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...VJP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
414 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-310915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
414 AM CDT Mon Jul 30 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widely scattered hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms are expected
to impact the area today. The strongest activity will be capable of
pea to dime size hail, 50 mph winds and brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

After dry weather this week, storm chances could increase once
again by the weekend, as a cold front approaches from the north.
Widespread severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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