Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
227 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Latest SFC analysis and satellite imagery this afternoon show a
weak area of low pressure over SE CO, with a frontal boundary
stretching to the east across parts of KS. To the north, a
somewhat better defined cool front was dropping south through
Nebraska. That front, which is becoming more diffuse with time, is
likely helping to enhance convergence somewhat across northern KS
at this time. It is in this area where thunderstorm initiation has
begun and is where the greatest coverage of storms is expected
through this evening. This includes our northern counties along
the I-70 corridor. Once again, shear is very weak, but high
moisture content and modest instability may allow a few stronger
storms to develop, capable of gusty winds to 55 mph and very heavy
rainfall. Later tonight, storms may build a bit further south into
south-central/southeast KS, although waning instability may tend
to limit the coverage to some degree.

How widespread convection is this evening/tonight may play a role
in if/where storms form on Monday. For now, I kept a lower-end mention
of storms in for much of the area as it's hard to pinpoint which
areas may end up having a greater chance. That said, by Monday
evening/night, a s/w passing well north of the area may provide a
glancing blow with slightly better forcing, especially along/near
the stalled frontal boundary. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will
continue to be the primary threats with this activity.

An increasing NW flow aloft will develop by mid-week, leading to
increasing shear across the area. Meanwhile, a couple of
shortwaves ejecting out of the NRN Rockies will provide
increasing lift, providing a continued threat of thunderstorms.
With increasing shear, there will be an increased potential of
storm organization/severe weather, especially by Wednesday. There
remains some uncertainty, though, regarding the timing of each
wave, making the severe potential a bit less certain. The main
takeaway here is that severe weather is possible, but it is still
too early to get specific on threats/magnitude. - Martin

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

It now looks like the NW flow aloft may remain more firmly
established across the Central Plains as the mid-week s/w closes
off over the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Initially, this may
extend the threat of thunderstorms a bit further into the work
week as shortwaves drop SE across the region, with lift aided by
increasing low/mid level WAA. However, by next weekend, there are
some indications that drier air will move into the area on the
backside of the Midwest upper low, with drier air/subsidence
leading to a much lower threat of storms. This may also keep the
hottest temperatures centered just to our west over the High
Plains. Although, with our area being right on the doorstep of
hotter temps, any shift east in the placement of that upper low
could mean much warmer temps than currently forecast. - Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

TSRA to impact portions of the area through this evening with
gusty winds and reduced VIS.

A frontal boundary stretches from NW to SE across central KS early
this afternoon. Satellite imagery already shows increasing cumulus
development along this boundary, and it is in this area where the
greatest risk of TSRA will likely be focused. For now, I have
opted to go with VCTS at all TAF sites, but later amendments will
likely be needed as storms develop and as confidence in
timing/location increases. All TSRA today will be capable of
gusty/erratic winds of 30-45kt and reduced VIS due to very heavy
rain. A gradual decreasing trend in TSRA is possible overnight,
although the threat won't be zero thanks to the boundary remaining
in the area. - Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    95  73  93  73 /  20  30  30  40
Hutchinson      93  71  92  71 /  30  30  30  40
Newton          93  72  91  71 /  40  40  30  40
ElDorado        93  72  91  71 /  40  30  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   94  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
Russell         93  69  90  70 /  50  40  30  50
Great Bend      93  68  90  70 /  30  40  30  50
Salina          95  72  92  72 /  60  40  30  40
McPherson       92  70  91  71 /  40  40  30  40
Coffeyville     94  74  93  74 /  30  40  30  30
Chanute         94  73  92  72 /  30  40  30  30
Iola            93  73  91  72 /  30  40  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    94  74  93  73 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
351 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
351 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heat indices will climb into the 100 to 105 degree range across the
area this afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to impact the area through
tonight. The strongest storms will be capable of 50 to 60 mph wind
gusts and very heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorms may linger this evening and overnight with locally
heavy rains being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The threat of thunderstorms will exist each day through at least
Thursday. Heavy rain, isolated instances of flooding, and strong
winds around 60 mph are possible with the strongest activity. The
potential of severe thunderstorms may increase across the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Dangerous heat indices around 100 may return to the area toward the
end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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