Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Wichita, KS

861 
WWUS53 KICT 152112
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
412 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

KSC105-152122-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0175.000000T0000Z-180715T2130Z/
Lincoln KS-
412 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3895 9793 3894 9812 3915 9812 3916 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 317DEG 4KT 3905 9792 

$$

Martin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
227 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Latest SFC analysis and satellite imagery this afternoon show a
weak area of low pressure over SE CO, with a frontal boundary
stretching to the east across parts of KS. To the north, a
somewhat better defined cool front was dropping south through
Nebraska. That front, which is becoming more diffuse with time, is
likely helping to enhance convergence somewhat across northern KS
at this time. It is in this area where thunderstorm initiation has
begun and is where the greatest coverage of storms is expected
through this evening. This includes our northern counties along
the I-70 corridor. Once again, shear is very weak, but high
moisture content and modest instability may allow a few stronger
storms to develop, capable of gusty winds to 55 mph and very heavy
rainfall. Later tonight, storms may build a bit further south into
south-central/southeast KS, although waning instability may tend
to limit the coverage to some degree.

How widespread convection is this evening/tonight may play a role
in if/where storms form on Monday. For now, I kept a lower-end mention
of storms in for much of the area as it's hard to pinpoint which
areas may end up having a greater chance. That said, by Monday
evening/night, a s/w passing well north of the area may provide a
glancing blow with slightly better forcing, especially along/near
the stalled frontal boundary. Gusty winds and heavy rainfall will
continue to be the primary threats with this activity.

An increasing NW flow aloft will develop by mid-week, leading to
increasing shear across the area. Meanwhile, a couple of
shortwaves ejecting out of the NRN Rockies will provide
increasing lift, providing a continued threat of thunderstorms.
With increasing shear, there will be an increased potential of
storm organization/severe weather, especially by Wednesday. There
remains some uncertainty, though, regarding the timing of each
wave, making the severe potential a bit less certain. The main
takeaway here is that severe weather is possible, but it is still
too early to get specific on threats/magnitude. - Martin

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

It now looks like the NW flow aloft may remain more firmly
established across the Central Plains as the mid-week s/w closes
off over the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Initially, this may
extend the threat of thunderstorms a bit further into the work
week as shortwaves drop SE across the region, with lift aided by
increasing low/mid level WAA. However, by next weekend, there are
some indications that drier air will move into the area on the
backside of the Midwest upper low, with drier air/subsidence
leading to a much lower threat of storms. This may also keep the
hottest temperatures centered just to our west over the High
Plains. Although, with our area being right on the doorstep of
hotter temps, any shift east in the placement of that upper low
could mean much warmer temps than currently forecast. - Martin

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

TSRA to impact portions of the area through this evening with
gusty winds and reduced VIS.

A frontal boundary stretches from NW to SE across central KS early
this afternoon. Satellite imagery already shows increasing cumulus
development along this boundary, and it is in this area where the
greatest risk of TSRA will likely be focused. For now, I have
opted to go with VCTS at all TAF sites, but later amendments will
likely be needed as storms develop and as confidence in
timing/location increases. All TSRA today will be capable of
gusty/erratic winds of 30-45kt and reduced VIS due to very heavy
rain. A gradual decreasing trend in TSRA is possible overnight,
although the threat won't be zero thanks to the boundary remaining
in the area. - Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    95  73  93  73 /  20  30  30  40
Hutchinson      93  71  92  71 /  30  30  30  40
Newton          93  72  91  71 /  40  40  30  40
ElDorado        93  72  91  71 /  40  30  30  30
Winfield-KWLD   94  73  93  73 /  30  20  30  40
Russell         93  69  90  70 /  50  40  30  50
Great Bend      93  68  90  70 /  30  40  30  50
Salina          95  72  92  72 /  60  40  30  40
McPherson       92  70  91  71 /  40  40  30  40
Coffeyville     94  74  93  74 /  30  40  30  30
Chanute         94  73  92  72 /  30  40  30  30
Iola            93  73  91  72 /  30  40  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    94  74  93  73 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
730 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-161230-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
730 AM CDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat indices will climb into the 100 to 105 degree range across the
area this afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of the area this
afternoon. The strongest thunderstorms would be capable of producing
heavy rain and some winds to around 50 mph.

Thunderstorms may linger this evening and overnight with locally
heavy rains being the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The threat of thunderstorms will exist each day through at least
Thursday. Heavy rain, isolated instances of flooding, and strong
winds around 60 mph are possible with the strongest activity. The
potential of severe thunderstorms may increase across the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Dangerous heat indices around 100 may return to the area toward the
end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
205 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

KSZ032-033-048-151930-
Ellsworth KS-Russell KS-Lincoln KS-
205 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern Ellsworth County in central Kansas...
  East central Russell County in central Kansas...
  Southwestern Lincoln County in central Kansas...

* Until 230 PM CDT.

* At 201 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall near Sylvan
  Grove, or 10 miles northeast of Wilson...moving northeast at 10
  mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lucas, Sylvan Grove, Wilson Lake and Wilson State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 9815 3881 9838 3898 9865 3915 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 212DEG 9KT 3897 9839

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
246 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

KSZ049-051-152015-
McPherson KS-Saline KS-
246 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northern McPherson County in central Kansas...
  Southern Saline County in central Kansas...

* Until 315 PM CDT.

* At 245 PM CDT...local law enforcement reported a strong
  thunderstorm near Lindsborg...moving north at 5 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lindsborg, Marquette and Bridgeport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 9745 3847 9791 3866 9791 3866 9745
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 190DEG 5KT 3855 9763

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

KSZ053-152030-
Chase KS-
306 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 330 PM CDT.

* At 304 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Strong City...moving southeast
  at 5 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Elmdale, Hymer, Saffordville,
  Tallgrass Prairie and Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9669 3851 9637 3832 9637 3832 9668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 318DEG 5KT 3844 9654

Martin