Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Tonight:
Main focus is thunderstorm potential. Salient issues include
apparently overly generous initialization of 850MB moisture by
1200 UTC models, generally weak upper flow and impressive push on
cold front across western KS this morning. These all make timing
and location of initiation/onset in the forecast area challenging.
Forecast was swayed heavily by combo of afternoon HRRR/RAP
forecasts which suggest storms will ramp up around 0000 UTC and
dive mainly south. Direction appears to be heavily influenced by
cold pool given weak upper flow. Impressive 700-500MB directional
shear suggest some large hail possible early with discrete cells,
with shear decreasing during the event. Storms and precipitation
could linger through daybreak in southeast KS.

Tuesday:
Storms may linger a bit past daybreak Tuesday in southeast KS,
otherwise post frontal/post outflow airmass is expected. Models
seem a bit optimistic with synoptic front across the state during
the day. Assuming storms develop as anticipated tonight, seems
more likely that the effective front will be in OK, with a much
slower return to the north. This would push best chance for
precipitation much later Tuesday night, potentially close to
daybreak Wednesday. Obviously boundary location will impact
temperatures and heat indices as well.

Wednesday-Thursday:
Potential for extensive clouds/precipitation Wednesday, especially
early in the day. This makes maxes Wednesday a bit challenging.
Otherwise, drier and warmer airmass anticipated on Thursday.
Nudged initialization maxes up a bit based on 1000-850mb
thicknesses, and winds up a bit given surface pressure gradient
and 850MB flow. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Increased temperatures/winds slightly on Friday, as per Thursday
forecast. Otherwise dry and relatively warm. While a rogue storm
or two is possible at peak heating, chances of storms too low to
mention for most of this period. Upper ridge axis drifts east and
builds, so only minor changes in heights is forecast. There is
some consensus for small storm chances in northern sections with
approaching front on Monday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Scattered convection finally developed along a southward moving cold
front late this evening and continues near KHUT. So will go with
prevailing SHRA/VCTS for KHUT. Propagation of the supercell may drop
SE into KICT in the next hour or two, so will also mention a VCTS
for KICT as well.

Next concern will be complex of storms currently over KTOP. This
southward moving storms will drop south into KCNU after 08z so will
add a VCTS and a tempo group for TSRA for this threat as well.

Some uncertainty on how far south the cold front will get before
stalling possibly over srn KS. Current convection could also push
the main synoptic front further south into nrn OK. If the front does
stall over srn KS, could see some renewed convection for Tue
afternoon across srn KS.  Lots of uncertainty so will not add this
mention yet.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  94  71  90 /  30  10  40  40
Hutchinson      69  93  68  89 /  30  10  50  40
Newton          70  92  68  88 /  40  10  50  40
ElDorado        70  91  69  87 /  30  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   69  94  71  89 /  30  10  40  40
Russell         62  92  65  91 /  10  10  50  20
Great Bend      62  92  66  90 /  10  10  50  20
Salina          67  93  67  90 /  30  10  50  30
McPherson       68  93  67  89 /  30  10  50  30
Coffeyville     67  93  72  89 /  60  20  30  50
Chanute         67  92  70  87 /  40  10  40  50
Iola            67  91  70  86 /  40  10  40  50
Parsons-KPPF    67  93  71  88 /  60  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
827 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-130130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
827 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms are expected to develop this evening in central
Kansas, and spread south overnight. Damaging winds up to 65 mph and
locally heavy rain due are the main threats throughout the night.
Golfball sized hail is also possible with any isolated storms
during the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is some uncertainty on the
timing and location. The latest indications are storms are less
likely in the evening and more likely closer to daybreak Wednesday.

Heat indices around 100 degrees are forecast each afternoon from
Thursday through Saturday for much of the area.

There is a chance of strong storms Sunday night in central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PH/Ketcham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1139 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

KSZ052-120515-
Marion KS-
1139 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Marion County in central Kansas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT

* At 1137 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Goessel, or 6 miles southwest
  of Hillsboro...moving east at 25 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hillsboro, Marion, Peabody, Florence, Goessel, Burns, Lincolnville,
  Lehigh, Durham, Pilsen and Marion Lake.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central, central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3851 9685 3809 9684 3809 9715 3811 9716
      3818 9716 3817 9717 3818 9717 3818 9737
      3856 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 286DEG 23KT 3828 9727

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

KSZ053-120515-
Chase KS-
1149 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 1215 AM CDT

* At 1148 PM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 9 miles
  west of Strong City...moving east at 25 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Bazaar, Elmdale, Matfield Green,
  Cedar Point, Hymer, Saffordville, Wonsevu, Tallgrass Prairie and
  Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3809 9636 3810 9683 3852 9682 3852 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 286DEG 23KT 3841 9670

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1217 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 SSW SOUTH HUTCHINSON  37.94N 97.98W
06/12/2018  E60 MPH          RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

KSZ052-053-120600-
Marion KS-Chase KS-
1219 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 100 AM CDT

* At 1216 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall over
  Florence...moving southeast at 10 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Marion, Peabody, Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Florence, Burns,
  Lincolnville, Bazaar, Elmdale, Matfield Green, Cedar Point, Hymer,
  Wonsevu, Tallgrass Prairie, Saffordville, Tallgrass Prairie
  Preserve and Marion Lake.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central, central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9636 3809 9636 3809 9715 3817 9715
      3817 9725 3819 9727 3853 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 325DEG 11KT 3825 9697

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
103 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

KSZ053-069-070-120700-
Butler KS-Greenwood KS-Chase KS-
103 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southeastern Chase County in east central Kansas...

* Until 200 AM CDT

* At 102 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 15 miles east of Burns, or 19 miles
  south of Cottonwood Falls...moving southeast at 30 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Madison, Cassoday, Bazaar, Matfield Green and Thrall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3809 9680 3835 9657 3817 9635 3816 9597
      3775 9652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 306DEG 27KT 3809 9661

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
213 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

KSZ069-070-120745-
Butler KS-Greenwood KS-
213 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  West central Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 245 AM CDT

* At 209 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 18 miles northwest of Eureka...
  moving southeast at 30 mph.

Hail up to the size of nickels and winds up to 50 mph are possible
with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cassoday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways, especially at night!

&&

LAT...LON 3800 9670 3809 9654 3809 9649 3796 9630
      3784 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 327DEG 16KT 3799 9656

ES