Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Wichita, KS

143 
WWUS53 KICT 120434
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1134 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

KSC017-115-120515-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-180612T0515Z/
Chase KS-Marion KS-
1134 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR CHASE AND NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES...

At 1134 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles west of
Cottonwood Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Florence, Lincolnville,
Bazaar, Elmdale, Matfield Green, Cedar Point, Hymer, Wonsevu,
Tallgrass Prairie, Saffordville and Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 9693 3852 9693 3852 9635 3809 9636
      3815 9685 3838 9708 3855 9701
TIME...MOT...LOC 0434Z 287DEG 24KT 3839 9676 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

METZGER

547 
WWUS53 KICT 120443
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

KSC115-120453-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-180612T0515Z/
Marion KS-
1143 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3809 9636 3815 9684 3852 9681 3852 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 287DEG 24KT 3837 9667 

$$

KSC017-120515-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-180612T0515Z/
Chase KS-
1143 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR CHASE COUNTY...

At 1143 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Cottonwood Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Bazaar, Elmdale, Matfield Green, Cedar
Point, Hymer, Saffordville, Wonsevu, Tallgrass Prairie and Tallgrass
Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 9636 3815 9684 3852 9681 3852 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 287DEG 24KT 3837 9667 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

METZGER

551 
WWUS53 KICT 120448
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1148 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

KSC017-120458-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0127.000000T0000Z-180612T0515Z/
Chase KS-
1148 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHASE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3809 9636 3815 9684 3852 9681 3852 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 287DEG 24KT 3837 9665 

$$

METZGER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
758 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 756 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Storms made an attempt in central KS but fairly quickly died from
apparent combo of capping and dry air aloft. Latest run of HRRR
seems to have captured this fairly well, and supports fairly quick
development 0200-0300 UTC in central KS which then spreads/expands
south during the night. This is consistent with the general model
trends throughout the day. Grids have been updated to delay the
onset slightly. Assuming storms do develop, plan is to expand
severe thunderstorm watch south. -Howerton

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Tonight:
Main focus is thunderstorm potential. Salient issues include
apparently overly generous initialization of 850MB moisture by
1200 UTC models, generally weak upper flow and impressive push on
cold front across western KS this morning. These all make timing
and location of initiation/onset in the forecast area challenging.
Forecast was swayed heavily by combo of afternoon HRRR/RAP
forecasts which suggest storms will ramp up around 0000 UTC and
dive mainly south. Direction appears to be heavily influenced by
cold pool given weak upper flow. Impressive 700-500MB directional
shear suggest some large hail possible early with discrete cells,
with shear decreasing during the event. Storms and precipitation
could linger through daybreak in southeast KS.

Tuesday:
Storms may linger a bit past daybreak Tuesday in southeast KS,
otherwise post frontal/post outflow airmass is expected. Models
seem a bit optimistic with synoptic front across the state during
the day. Assuming storms develop as anticipated tonight, seems
more likely that the effective front will be in OK, with a much
slower return to the north. This would push best chance for
precipitation much later Tuesday night, potentially close to
daybreak Wednesday. Obviously boundary location will impact
temperatures and heat indices as well.

Wednesday-Thursday:
Potential for extensive clouds/precipitation Wednesday, especially
early in the day. This makes maxes Wednesday a bit challenging.
Otherwise, drier and warmer airmass anticipated on Thursday.
Nudged initialization maxes up a bit based on 1000-850mb
thicknesses, and winds up a bit given surface pressure gradient
and 850MB flow. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Increased temperatures/winds slightly on Friday, as per Thursday
forecast. Otherwise dry and relatively warm. While a rogue storm
or two is possible at peak heating, chances of storms too low to
mention for most of this period. Upper ridge axis drifts east and
builds, so only minor changes in heights is forecast. There is
some consensus for small storm chances in northern sections with
approaching front on Monday. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

A frontal system will be moving through the region this evening.
Showers and thunderstorms, some severe storms are possible and
are likely to affect all terminals at some point during the hear
TAF period. Only RSL is not expected to have thunderstorm activity
this evening. Once the thunderstorms pass, there may be some
residual rain for a few hours but VFR conditions will quickly
return. VFR conditions are also expected to dominate during the
day tomorrow for all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  94  71  90 /  30  10  40  40
Hutchinson      69  93  68  89 /  30  10  50  40
Newton          70  92  68  88 /  40  10  50  40
ElDorado        70  91  69  87 /  30  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   69  94  71  89 /  10  10  40  40
Russell         62  92  65  91 /  10  10  50  20
Great Bend      62  92  66  90 /  10  10  50  20
Salina          67  93  67  90 /  30  10  50  30
McPherson       68  93  67  89 /  30  10  50  30
Coffeyville     67  93  72  89 /  40  20  30  50
Chanute         67  92  70  87 /  50  10  40  50
Iola            67  91  70  86 /  40  10  40  50
Parsons-KPPF    67  93  71  88 /  40  10  40  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

MESOSCALE...PJH
SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ELM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
827 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-130130-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
827 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered storms are expected to develop this evening in central
Kansas, and spread south overnight. Damaging winds up to 65 mph and
locally heavy rain due are the main threats throughout the night.
Golfball sized hail is also possible with any isolated storms
during the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another round of thunderstorms will be possible across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is some uncertainty on the
timing and location. The latest indications are storms are less
likely in the evening and more likely closer to daybreak Wednesday.

Heat indices around 100 degrees are forecast each afternoon from
Thursday through Saturday for much of the area.

There is a chance of strong storms Sunday night in central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PH/Ketcham

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1026 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HAIL             6 WNW MCPHERSON         38.41N 97.76W
06/11/2018  E0.88 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIA KWCH TV.

&&

BDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1050 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

KSZ052-120430-
Marion KS-
1050 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Marion County in central Kansas...

* Until 1130 PM CDT

* At 1047 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Durham, or 7 miles north of
  Hillsboro...moving southeast at 15 mph.

* Hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will
  be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hillsboro, Marion, Peabody, Florence, Goessel, Burns, Lincolnville,
  Ramona, Lehigh, Durham, Tampa, Lost Springs, Marion Lake and
  Pilsen.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central, central and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9694 3852 9682 3809 9685 3809 9714
      3818 9716 3817 9737 3861 9737 3861 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 326DEG 15KT 3846 9717

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 PM     HAIL             2 N NICKERSON           38.18N 98.09W
06/11/2018  E1.00 INCH       RICE               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1105 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     HAIL             3 S NICKERSON           38.10N 98.09W
06/11/2018  E1.75 INCH       RENO               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1108 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     HAIL             4 S NICKERSON           38.09N 98.09W
06/11/2018  M1.75 INCH       RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1115 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             1 N HUTCHINSON          38.08N 97.91W
06/11/2018  E1.75 INCH       RENO               KS   PUBLIC

            HIGHLANDS AT 82ND AND MONROE. VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

1110 PM     HAIL             1 W HUTCHINSON          38.07N 97.93W
06/11/2018  E1.00 INCH       RENO               KS   PUBLIC

&&

BDK