Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1211 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Potential for a nocturnal severe event looms for central Kansas.
Moist upslope flow across western Kansas late this afternoon and
diurnal heating will yield MLCAPE values around 2500 j/kg in the
presence of 35-40 kts of deep layer shear. Convergence along the
W-E oriented boundary/pseudo warm front should focus deep moist
convection in the 22z-00z time frame. This activity should evolve
upscale through the evening, aided by the strengthening low level
jet, as it moves east-northeast toward central Kansas. Despite
the modest southwest flow aloft, the storm-relative inflow and
reservoir of unstable air across central Kansas overnight should
support storm maintenance within an environment supportive of
cold pool development/bowing line segments moving across the
area. Convection originating further south over the Texas
panhandle could also affect southern Kansas overnight. While
marginal severe hail is likely, the main risk overnight should
evolve into a strong/damaging wind scenario, though perhaps
weakening a bit as it moves east of the Kansas turnpike late in
the night.

As the main upper trof begins to lift out across the central Plains
on Saturday winds aloft and deep layer shear will increase a bit
along and ahead of the effective surface cold front. While tonights
convection/mesoscale influences will have some affect on the
boundary placement, general model consensus places it along or just
west of the Kansas turnpike during peak late afternoon heating. So
expect another round of strong to severe convection Saturday evening
with all modes of severe weather possible. The upper trof will lift
slowly northeast of the area by later Sunday with a weakening
frontal boundary possibly lingering across far southeast Kansas
for remote chances for convection there.

While the airmass will remain unstable on Monday with weak return
southerly flow, the lack of forcing and weak focus will limit
chances to slight/isolated.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Another upper low over California early next week will lift north
across the Great Basin. Weak flow aloft downstream across Kansas and
an unstable southerly low level flow will limit chances for
mainly isolated, diurnally driven convection or perhaps some
nocturnal emissions drifting east from the high Plains into
central Kansas.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Combo of moisture transport and favorable upper support will keep
precipitation going for several more hours. Still indications for
MVFR ceilings in central KS tomorrow morning. Forecast in the
afternoon and evening is extremely challenging. Some indication
that precipitation could linger well into the day east of I-35,
preventing/limiting convection with front. Or it may be capped.
Some models develop extensive convection ahead of the front in
the afternoon. Precipitation should develop along front
eventually, but is unclear whether KGBD/KHUT or even KICT would
get that convection. As a result, will include VCTS at KHUT/KICT
but keep KSLN/KGBD out for now. MVFR are clouds anticipated in
the wake of the the front. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  88  59  78 /  90  30  40  10
Hutchinson      65  85  57  76 /  90  30  30  10
Newton          64  87  57  76 /  90  30  40  10
ElDorado        65  87  59  77 /  80  30  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   67  89  60  78 /  60  30  50  10
Russell         62  78  52  73 /  90  20  20  10
Great Bend      63  79  53  73 / 100  20  20  10
Salina          64  84  57  76 / 100  40  30  10
McPherson       64  85  56  76 /  90  30  30  10
Coffeyville     68  88  65  82 /  20  20  30  20
Chanute         66  87  63  81 /  40  20  30  20
Iola            66  87  63  81 /  50  20  30  20
Parsons-KPPF    67  88  64  82 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...PJH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
347 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-192100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
347 PM CDT Fri May 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A complex of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop
from western Kansas into the Texas panhandle early this evening and
move east-northeast across central Kansas late this evening and
overnight. While a few large hailstones up to ping pong ball size
will be possible, the main risk will be damaging straight-line winds
to 70 mph. The greatest severe risk will be west of the Kansas
turnpike. Storms are expected to gradually weaken late tonight as
they move into southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a risk for strong to severe storms again on Saturday
afternoon and evening across much of the area. The greatest risk
is expected across south central Kansas and the Flint Hills.
Damaging winds, large hail and even a tornado will be possible.

Chances for thunderstorms will remain in the forecast periodically
Sunday through Thursday. While a few strong storms will be possible,
the risk for organized storms and severe weather appears low for
now.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed along and west of a Salina to
Wichita line after 9 pm this evening until about 2 am.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1048 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSZ050-051-190415-
Rice KS-McPherson KS-
1048 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Rice County in central Kansas...
  McPherson County in central Kansas...

* Until 1115 PM CDT

* At 1046 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Marquette, to near Inman...and moving northeast at 30 to 40 mph.

Pea to dime size hail...and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible
with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Mcpherson, Lyons, Lindsborg, Sterling, Moundridge, Inman, Galva,
  Canton, Marquette, Little River, Geneseo, Windom, Frederick,
  Mcpherson Airport and Roxbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central and south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9793 3861 9792 3861 9737 3817 9737
      3817 9826 3852 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 261DEG 32KT 3857 9792 3819 9780

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1103 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

KSZ092-190500-
Sumner KS-
1103 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until midnight CDT

* At 1103 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles northwest of Caldwell...
  moving east at 30 mph.

wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wellington, Mulvane, Belle Plaine, Conway Springs, Caldwell,
  Oxford, Argonia, South Haven, Geuda Springs, Mayfield, Milan,
  Hunnewell, Perth, Riverdale and Wellington Airport.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9780 3747 9781 3747 9715 3700 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 259DEG 24KT 3714 9770

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE UDALL              37.43N 97.07W
05/19/2018  E70 MPH          COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE UDALL              37.43N 97.07W
05/19/2018  E70.00 MPH       COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
123 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE EL DORADO          37.80N 96.83W
05/19/2018  M51 MPH          BUTLER             KS   AWOS

            MEASURED AT THE AIRPORT.

&&

ADK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
201 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

KSZ070-071-094-095-190730-
Wilson KS-Greenwood KS-Woodson KS-Elk KS-
201 AM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 230 AM CDT

* At 158 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles
  west of Madison, to near Hamilton, to Fall River, to near Elk
  Falls...and moving northeast at 40 TO 50 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eureka, Neodesha, Fredonia, Yates Center, Madison, Howard, Altoona,
  Moline, Longton, Toronto, Hamilton, Severy, Buffalo, Fall River,
  Neosho Falls, Elk Falls, Benedict, Climax, Virgil and New Albany.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are not expected to become severe.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 9635 3760 9628 3781 9632 3808 9652
      3809 9636 3817 9636 3817 9596 3804 9596
      3804 9552 3738 9552 3739 9596 3730 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 229DEG 45KT 3811 9640 3794 9617 3762 9600 3733
9615

KLEINSASSER